Everything is not getting worse

Discuss the evolution of human culture, economics and politics in the decades and centuries ahead
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funkervogt
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Everything is not getting worse

Post by funkervogt »

I'm starting this thread to counter the notion that everything is getting worse and humanity is doomed. I'd like to do my part to spread some rational optimism here about the future.

So take your best shot!
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MythOfProgress
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Re: Everything is not getting worse

Post by MythOfProgress »

Bit of an oxymoron when you mention "rational optimism", optimism by nature requires you to be positive and to assume that things will get better with time; even when there is no basis for it. Rationality is looking at the big picture, putting aside your feelings and taking a look at the facts. Considering the past few years have shown me that this is a very deluded way of thinking, anti-maskers and anti-vaxxers are a prominent example of this, often refusing to wear a mask or take the vaccine(s) in their attempts to find and maintain normality even in spite of what's going on and the death toll that continuously increases- day after day.
I think we should disabuse people of the notion that things are fine, or worse that they are getting better because there is no evidence for this to be found(in the general picture, can't speak for certain individuals). Furthermore you set people up for failure and leave them unprepared for crises(such as climate change, rising food prices, famines, wars, diseases, extreme weather events and natural disasters. While we can take on a few issues at a time, these do not exist in a vacuum and heavily correlate with each other, often reinforcing another and making things worse- which makes taking on these issues a whole lot more difficult) by letting them believe that everything will be fine.
By reinforcing this notion that "everything is ok" you run the risk of other people becoming complacent to certain issues because after all, with enough time, problems will be solved regardless of their interference. I don't know if humanity truly is doomed, but it is a fact that everything is getting worse. So to that end, i hope you can convince me that everything is not getting worse, because i want to believe the same thing and believe that a brighter future exists.
R.I.P Ziba.
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raklian
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Re: Everything is not getting worse

Post by raklian »

MythOfProgress wrote: Mon Mar 28, 2022 6:59 pm Bit of an oxymoron when you mention "rational optimism", optimism by nature requires you to be positive and to assume that things will get better with time; even when there is no basis for it.
"Bit of an oxymoron when you mention "rational pessimism," pessimism by nature requires you to be negative and to assume that things will get worse with time; even when there is no basis for it."

Works too.

Point is, it's all relative to the observer.
To know is essentially the same as not knowing. The only thing that occurs is the rearrangement of atoms in your brain.
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MythOfProgress
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Re: Everything is not getting worse

Post by MythOfProgress »

"Bit of any oxymoron when you mention rational pessimism, pessimism by nature requires you to be negative and to assume that things will get worse with time; even where is no basis for it"
"Works too"
not really, reality tends to have a pessimistic bias. don't have to look too far beyond most of the things i've mentioned, though if i had to focus on one of them it'd probably be climate change considering the amount of progress that's been made(a moderate amount, but not nearly enough to save us from going past 1.5°C or 2°C, and even then we'll go long past those if you start to take into account feedback loops and tipping points, which we are dangerously close to passing), you can leave all the other things i've mentioned aside and still would come to the conclusion that we are probably on the verge of societal destabilization if not collapse. no matter how promising, no techno-fixes are gonna save us, only we can make the decision ourselves.
"Point is, it's all relative to the observer."
nah not really, if you're living in a different reality like a lot of folks are these days then sure; but there is nothing relative about the ice
shelf collapsing in east Antarctica or the ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine, which have the potential for impacting global food supply chains.
R.I.P Ziba.
TrueAnimationFan
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Re: Everything is not getting worse

Post by TrueAnimationFan »

I honestly think you're panicking a little too much here. Pandemics and times of increased war are two frequently recurring tropes in human history that have been going on for thousands of years, so it was probably only a matter of time before there would be an instance of overlap. Yes, there's now the new threat of global warming, but it's not like half the land of the world will be underwater in 20 years and half the forests of the world will be deserts. Also, even if there wasn't the threat of climate change, there would still be famines happening every now and then - deadly weather never fully goes away, after all.

Am I saying that you need to believe that we will have warp drive and flying cars in 50 years? No, of course not - because such a time frame for stuff like that is unrealistically short. Wars will surely continue for decades or even centuries to come. But I don't think it's healthy either to only focus on the evil and destruction happening on this planet, as extreme pessimism like that has been known to cause some people to spiral into depression, and I wouldn't wish that on even the meanest people I've met in my life, let alone you.
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MythOfProgress
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Re: Everything is not getting worse

Post by MythOfProgress »

TrueAnimationFan wrote: Mon Mar 28, 2022 11:46 pm I honestly think you're panicking a little too much here. Pandemics and times of increased war are two frequently recurring tropes in human history that have been going on for thousands of years, so it was probably only a matter of time before there would be an instance of overlap. Yes, there's now the new threat of global warming, but it's not like half the land of the world will be underwater in 20 years and half the forests of the world will be deserts. Also, even if there wasn't the threat of climate change, there would still be famines happening every now and then - deadly weather never fully goes away, after all.

Am I saying that you need to believe that we will have warp drive and flying cars in 50 years? No, of course not - because such a time frame for stuff like that is unrealistically short. Wars will surely continue for decades or even centuries to come. But I don't think it's healthy either to only focus on the evil and destruction happening on this planet, as extreme pessimism like that has been known to cause some people to spiral into depression, and I wouldn't wish that on even the meanest people I've met in my life, let alone you.
the fact that pandemics and wars are a part of our history doesn't really help to ease anxieties here, there's always the fact that we possess relatively new technologies, nukes are the first that come to mind, although people genuinely believe the MAD principle will mean a nuclear exchange will never occur because to engage in a war like that would mean "all sides lose", its done so under the assumption that the perpetrators are thinking rationally(looking at Russia/Putin mostly) and that if their back met a wall they wouldn't commit to it just to screw over everyone else. If you haven't read the latest IPCC report, i'd say you'd change your thoughts on climate change not being as serious and realize it is already happening with many events that have been predicted occurring faster than expected. don't count on those famines not happening to you, most people(not referring to you specifically) tend to normalize these situations as mostly occurring in developing/third world countries, but never really take a deeper look at what it means to have food in a society like ours, where we pretty much have everything on-demand and ready to go.
Considering flying cars are impractical, and warp drives are still a theoretical technology, i don't really think we'll be finding any solutions for a pretty long time lol.
I appreciate your concern, but im fine and this isn't something that just comes from being a doomer. regardless, i know there isn't much point to discussing it considering the overwhelming thought in a forum like this tends to have some techno-utopian ideals or at least lean towards the belief that everything is fine, to some extent i can understand it because to believe a future filled with pain, suffering and despair as opposed to one where we are "evolving" is a lot more painful and disappointing .
R.I.P Ziba.
TrueAnimationFan
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Re: Everything is not getting worse

Post by TrueAnimationFan »

"Considering flying cars are impractical, and warp drives are still a theoretical technology, i don't really think we'll be finding any solutions for a pretty long time lol."

...That's literally what I just said. Believing that the techno-utopia sort of world seen in Star Trek will exist within a few decades is just too generous based off the speed of current advancement. But if you give us hundreds of years or even thousands, the notion of something at least partially similar existing becomes not entirely out of the question due to the fact that scientific knowledge may exist by then that allows us to understand how to make previously impractical tech much easier to design. Could the ancient Greeks have easily built a Ford Model T? Could someone in late 1800s have spotted the Stingray Nebula using only binoculars?

You know dude, if this forum strikes you as far too optimistic and you feel that we're all "living in a different reality" just because we have the slightest faith in humanity's future, then maybe this place isn't for you. I highly doubt that you're going to be able to convince most people here that "We are dying, our civilization is finished. Collapse is near. Only thing you can do is look on as everything inevitably falls apart." I'm sure there are tons of places on the internet where everyone else would be willing to constantly weep with you about all of that stuff...but this almost certainly isn't one of them. And that's not to mention, you literally came to a thread centered on optimism and then complained about not finding the opposite......???
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funkervogt
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Re: Everything is not getting worse

Post by funkervogt »

MythOfProgress wrote: Mon Mar 28, 2022 6:59 pm Bit of an oxymoron when you mention "rational optimism", optimism by nature requires you to be positive and to assume that things will get better with time; even when there is no basis for it. Rationality is looking at the big picture, putting aside your feelings and taking a look at the facts. Considering the past few years have shown me that this is a very deluded way of thinking, anti-maskers and anti-vaxxers are a prominent example of this, often refusing to wear a mask or take the vaccine(s) in their attempts to find and maintain normality even in spite of what's going on and the death toll that continuously increases- day after day.
It's not an oxymoron. An analysis of the long-term and even medium-term trends to the human condition shows that thing have tended to consistently improve over time. As just one example, consider how the share of humanity that lives in extreme poverty has declined:
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/worl ... y-absolute

I also disapprove of anti-maskers and anti-vaxxers, but I don't see how their stupid behavior and the damage it causes compares to the much stronger trends towards improvement of the human condition. Since the start of the pandemic, COVID denialists might have caused hundreds of thousands of needless deaths (mostly their own), but the scientists who developed the COVID vaccine and the agencies that disseminated it prevented tens of millions of deaths. The actions and ideas of the stupid few should not loom larger than those of the smart and responsible many when gauging how the pandemic bodes for human progress.
I think we should disabuse people of the notion that things are fine, or worse that they are getting better because there is no evidence for this to be found(in the general picture, can't speak for certain individuals).
That's false. How does the decline in global extreme poverty square with your statement?

Also, what do you think about Steven Pinker's writings about the positive trends in the human condition, particularly those about the reduction in violence levels?
https://stevenpinker.com/publications/b ... our-nature
Furthermore you set people up for failure and leave them unprepared for crises(such as climate change, rising food prices, famines, wars, diseases, extreme weather events and natural disasters. While we can take on a few issues at a time, these do not exist in a vacuum and heavily correlate with each other, often reinforcing another and making things worse- which makes taking on these issues a whole lot more difficult) by letting them believe that everything will be fine.

By reinforcing this notion that "everything is ok" you run the risk of other people becoming complacent to certain issues because after all, with enough time, problems will be solved regardless of their interference.
Now you've moved on to a different idea: Regardless of what the actual trends are, we should make everyone believe that all the trends are negative because people are naturally complacent, and without a sense of impending doom, they will not agree to make sacrifices to fix problems. I agree to a point with this assessment of human nature, but also believe that the actions you support to overcome it are dishonest.

Moreover, I challenge whether keeping the population is a state of exaggerated fear has been leading to productive solutions to real problems. For example, Americans are awash in news reports of violent crimes, and to such and extent that they tend to grossly overestimate crime rates. This has been the case for many years, yet no changes have been made to the educational, social services, policing, or criminal justice systems that have substantially reduced crime rates. There seems to be no value-add to exaggerating the scope of the crime problem.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/ma ... yre-wrong/

Also, you misquoted something I said. You summed up my argument with the phrase "everything is ok," when in fact, I wrote "Everything is not getting worse." It might look like a small mistake, but the statements have very different meanings. For the record, I actually don't think that "everything is ok."
I don't know if humanity truly is doomed, but it is a fact that everything is getting worse. So to that end, i hope you can convince me that everything is not getting worse, because i want to believe the same thing and believe that a brighter future exists.
It is not a fact that everything is getting worse. Look at my data on the decline of extreme global poverty. For all the talk about how the "middle class is dying" in rich countries over the last generation, a much larger number of humans living in poor countries have vastly increased their own wealth and opportunities over the same period, and in many cases, they escaped the sort of day-to-day miseries that 99% of people in rich countries still never experience.

I could raise many more examples of ongoing human progress, but let's focus on the ones about poverty and violence declines for now.
TrueAnimationFan
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Re: Everything is not getting worse

Post by TrueAnimationFan »

By the way, the average person staying "sensible and sane" is going to be VERY hard if we all convince ourselves that we're headed for a global dystopia and can't do anything to stop it. If anything, THAT is an oxymoron.
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R8Z
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Re: Everything is not getting worse

Post by R8Z »

On the topic of "anti-x":

I was actually positived surprised on the awareness of the general public during this pandemic. Truly a divisior of waters on who blindly trusts authority and who is a skeptical (either of the tech or the administering authority, both reasonable positions given history). I still remember being the only one wearing a mask in a subway during the time the "authorities" ensured us that masks didn't work or the virus didn't spread via the air.

Anyway, the positives from the pandemic then are two so far: on one hand the forced vaccinations of millions plus draconic measures have improved the concept of informed consent and learning to read and evaluate studies on the context of the "illusions of evidence based medicine" (search it up). And now the worse these vaccines perform (e.g. negative effectiveness), and the worse the economy tanks due to the "measures", the more skeptics of "authorities" rise among society (and that's a good thing which we need a lot for the future). Note that westerns governments (specially the US) try to politicize this subject to encite anger. Avoid the anger, if possible, and read rationalists posts on the topic while ignoring the flamming around it.

On the other hand we've got now so many willingly subjects for testing mRNA and gene therapy relared drugs in general for now and in the future that we will have an abudant data on what works and what doesn't. Some unfortunately have to die for it (Mengele-style) but medicine is usually very hard to test and these are the heroes we don't deserve.... but they gladly take it for us because they think it's best for them... so we're all good and science goes forward. We had some impressive advancements in this area these last few years thanks to these people and the trend isn't looking like it is stopping.

I know some might disagree those two points above are good things, but I think they are, that is... for society in general.

As for other subjects:

Most feelings of "everything is getting worse" come from the economic aspect of things (just like most marriages that end in divorce are because of lack of money). If one is able to keep his earnings on pair with inflation most things are actually getting better day by day, specially if you aren't in a big city and are able to save. A well paid home office working from a small city with a low cost of living is probably the best place one could be nowadays as an average joe/jane for enjoying a peaceful and clean neighborhood plus all the improvements of society in general like modern tech and amenities.

I'd say staying away from big cities is one of the biggest mood improver one could do at the moment. Learning economics and understanding why "everything is getting expensive" and doing something to personally mitigate it probably a close second. It feels good when you understand society (or at least feel like you understand) and are able to control one's own future, at least money-wise.

As for unachievable/untackable topics like the climate getting 1 degree warmer in a set number of years. Yeah, discuss about it, propose solutions even, but don't worry unless you're running a coal mining operation or something. Worrying won't help a thing specifically if you aren't involved in how to solve it. It's like worrying about why the president did the dumb shit of the week and it's consequences, but worse because worrying about the future is literally the definition of anxiety. We're in a futurism forum and we know the technology keeps improving, so if not for us now an AGI will probably solve it in the future (with a high degree of certainty). Just buying the green labelled products for now and moving on is a great alternative.
And, as always, bye bye.
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