The future of U.S. de-urbanization

Discuss the evolution of human culture, economics and politics in the decades and centuries ahead
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funkervogt
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Joined: Mon May 17, 2021 3:03 pm

The future of U.S. de-urbanization

Post by funkervogt »

Ten Predictions for the Future
What do all of these trends add up to and how will this affect our future?

1. The decline of the Northeast will continue
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2. There’ll be continued rapid business growth in the South and West and especially in the Southwest
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3. Politics will be homogenized…to a point
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4. There’ll be a resurgence in regional train travel
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5. Big cities will embrace tourists
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6. Cities will struggle to serve those that can’t escape
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7. We’ll hear more about filtering
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8. Birth rates and family size will increase
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9. News and sports coverage will become less coastal-focused
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10. Wildfires and hurricanes will take larger human tolls
https://futuristspeaker.com/future-tren ... edictions/
Xyls
Posts: 689
Joined: Sun May 16, 2021 9:20 pm

Re: The future of U.S. de-urbanization

Post by Xyls »

I see no one has responded to this yet so I guess I will!

1. The decline of the Northeast will continue
-- This depends what you mean by the "Northeast" places like New York and the Northeast Megalopolis will probably continue to decline in population. However, since the pandemic places like Maine, New Hampshire and Vermont have actually been gaining population. Cost of living is way lower in these states and ultimately it is cost of living which is determining where people are migrating in the end.

2. There’ll be continued rapid business growth in the South and West and especially in the Southwest
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Again, not sure I agree with this. The Southwest is going to be where water issues become most acute. While for the foreseeable future Texas is going to likely take the lead with the American economy while electronic manufacturing are moved from China to Mexico and globalization unravels. There is potentially going to be A LOT of issues for rural areas of the state as fracking and agricultural industries which are both water heavy fade.

3. Politics will be homogenized…to a point
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I'm not sure what we mean by this. I definitely would not call politics homogenized in the States right now. I do not see any letup to the polarization in the States, but it's going to get less white vs other races, and far more urban vs rural as time goes on.

4. There’ll be a resurgence in regional train travel
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Doubt it.

5. Big cities will embrace tourists
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They don't already?

6. Cities will struggle to serve those that can’t escape
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Agreed, already happening. With the rise of remote-work though more people that can leave. WILL leave.

7. We’ll hear more about filtering
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I don't really know if we could predict this either way. I think people will stay typically in the environment they chose to be in while they were younger.

8. Birth rates and family size will increase
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Not for the foreseeable future. While I do think more rural population will probably increase the birth rate eventually, I think for now the lack of housing stock in urban areas where people live, the cost of living, and overall lack of space to raise kids is going to seriously constrain any birth rate. Not only this but WFH may actually make socializing between humans harder which will also repress the birth rate at this time. I do think that as population decline gets underway any the cost of living decreases eventually humanity will probably come to a more happy equilibrium birth rate. But I doubt this will happen until the 22nd century some time. And I will be long gone by then. :-)

9. News and sports coverage will become less coastal-focused
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Who cares?

10. Wildfires and hurricanes will take larger human tolls
Depends how we develop our societies in high risk areas to be honest. If people keep moving to Texas/Florida and no planning is done to mitigate then probably yes. However, if many people move away from higher risk areas (especially as insurance becomes unmanageable) it may actually ultimately drive human impacts down. For example, New Orleans and rural Louisiana are actually in pretty precipitous population decline now as insurance prices have dramatically risen in the area. This means that going forward it's actually likely that disasters here will have LESS of an impact on humans NOT more.

Wildfires might be a bit of a different story, but honestly the type of disaster everyone should probably be watching the most is flooding.
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