Infinite Growth, is it possible?

Discuss the evolution of human culture, economics and politics in the decades and centuries ahead
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MythOfProgress
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Infinite Growth, is it possible?

Post by MythOfProgress »


while not an exact fan of YouTuber EE(Economics Explained), they do tend to make some interesting analysis videos(from the neo-liberal perspective) on certain economic concepts and patterns that play out in practice. however, with this video they've made; they seem to conclude that infinite growth is possible on a finite world, not giving much thought to the physical constraints associated with an environment like ours and the environmental costs incurred in the name of growth.

thankfully, climate physicist Chirag Dhara and Vandana Singh who's a professor of physics point out the disconnects with an economic system centered solely on growth.

If you can't read the article, here's the text:
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The electric vehicle (EV) has become one of the great modern symbols of a world awakened to the profound challenges of unsustainability and climate change. So much so that we may well imagine that Deep Thought’s answer today to Life, the Universe and Everything might plausibly be “EV.” But, as Douglas Adams would surely have asked, if electric vehicles are the answer, what is the question?

Let us imagine the “perfect” EV: solar powered, efficient, reliable and affordable. But is it sustainable? EVs powered by renewable energy may help reduce the carbon footprint of transport. Yet, the measure of sustainability is not merely the carbon footprint but the material footprint: the aggregate quantity of biomass, metal ores, construction minerals and fossil fuels used during production and consumption of a product. The approximate metric tonne weight of an EV constitutes materials such as metals (including rare earths), plastics, glass and rubber. Therefore, a global spike in the demand for EVs would drive an increased demand for each of these materials.

Every stage of the life cycle of any manufactured product exacts environmental costs: habitat destruction, biodiversity loss and pollution (including carbon emissions) from extraction of raw materials, manufacturing / construction, through to disposal. Thus, it is the increasing global material footprint that is fundamentally the reason for the twin climate and ecological crises.

The global material footprint has grown in lockstep with the exponentially rising global economy (GDP) since the industrial revolution. This is largely because of egregious consumption by thesuper-affluentin a socioeconomic system founded on growth without limits. Can we resolve this fundamental conflict between the quest for limitless growth and the consequent environmental destruction?
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Industrial era exponential rise in the use of primary and derived physical resources: cropland (a), fossil fuels (b), freshwater (c), metals (d), plastic (e). Credit: Our World in Data (CC BY-SA 3.0 AU)

ENTER TECHNOLOGY

Technological innovation and efficiency improvements are often cited as pathways to decouple growth in material use from economic growth. While technology undoubtedly has a crucial role to play in the transition to a sustainable world, it is constrained by fundamental physical principles and pragmatic economic considerations.

Examples abound. The engine efficiency of airplanes has improved little for decades since they have long been operating close to their theoretical peak efficiency. Likewise, there is a hard limit on the efficiency of photovoltaic cells of about 35 percent because of the physical properties of the semiconductors that constitute them; in practice few exceed 20 percent for economic and pragmatic reasons. The power generation of large wind farms is limited to about one watt per square meter as a simple yet utterly unavoidable physical consequence of wake effects. The awesome exponential increase in computing power of the past five decades will end by about 2025 since it is physically impossible to make the transistors on the computer chip, already roughly 5 percent of the size of the coronavirus, much smaller.

Whether it is principles of classical, quantum or solid state physics or thermodynamics, each places different but inexorable constraints on technological solutions. Basically, physical principles that have allowed incredible technological leaps over the past century also inevitably limit them. We might consider that extensive recycling of materials would offset efficiency limits. Recycling is crucial; however, while glass and metals can be recycled almost indefinitely without loss of quality, materials such as paper and plastic can be recycled only a few times before becoming too degraded.

Additionally, recycling itself may be an energy- and materials-intensive process. Even if physical laws could be broken (they cannot) to achieve recycling with 100 percent efficiency, added demand from the imperative for economic growth would necessarily require virgin materials. The key point is that efficiency is limited by physics, but there is no sufficiency limit on the socioeconomic construct of “demand.”

Unfortunately, the situation is even more dire. Economic growth is required to be exponential; that is, the size of the economy must double in a fixed period. As referenced earlier, this has driven a corresponding increase in the material footprint. To understand the nature of exponential growth, consider the EV. Suppose that we have enough (easily extractable) lithium for the batteries needed to fuel the EV revolution for another 30 years. Now assume that deep-sea mining provides four times the current amount of these materials. Are we covered for 120 years? No, because the current 10 percent rate of growth in demand for lithium is equivalent to doubling of demand every seven years, which means we would only have enough for 44 years. In effect, we would cause untold, perhaps irreversible, devastation of marine ecosystems to buy ourselves a few extra years’ supply of raw materials.

Exponential growth swiftly, inevitably, swamps anything in finite supply. For a virus, that finite resource is the human population and in the context of the planet it is its physical resources.



The inescapable inference is that it is essentially impossible to decouple material use from economic growth. And this is exactly what has transpired. Wiedmann et al., 2015 did a careful accounting of the material footprint, including those embedded in international trade, for several nations. In the 1990–2008 period covered by the study, no country achieved a planned, deliberate economywide decoupling for a sustained length of time. Claims by the Global North to the contrary conceal the substantial offshoring of its production, and the associated ecological devastation, to the Global South.

Recent proposals for ecocidal deep-sea and fantastical exoplanetary mining are an unsurprising consequence of a growth paradigm that refuses to recognize these inconvenient truths.

WHAT IS SUSTAINABILITY?

These observations lead us to a natural minimum condition for sustainability: all resource use curves must be simultaneously flatlined and all pollution curves simultaneously extinguished. It is this resource perspective that allows us to see why EVs may help offset carbon emissions yet remain utterly unsustainable under the limitless growth paradigm.
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Sustainability from a resource perspective: Exponentially rising resource use and pollution (a and b) are unsustainable. We define sustainability as flatlined resource use (c) and extinguished pollution (d). Credit: Aditi Deshpande

THE REAL QUESTION

We have argued that the inextricable link between material consumption and GDP makes the infinite-growth paradigm incompatible with sustaining ecological integrity. Thus, while EVs constitute a partial answer to the climate question, within the current paradigm they will only exacerbate the larger anthropogenic crises connected to unsustainable resource consumption.

The real question is this: how do we transition to alternative economic paradigms founded on the reconciliation of equitable human well-being with ecological integrity?
R.I.P Ziba.
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R8Z
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Re: Infinite Growth, is it possible?

Post by R8Z »

The answer is no* (but with a huge asterisk).

The universe is relatively infinite giving our human scale. Even the solar system is quite immense and will surely fulfill all our needs as a species. Earth is effectively untouched so far, we're literally (and here I mean literally literally) skimming the surface of the planet, with much more yet to come for further growth. Hell, in the far future we could even dismantle the entire planet if we feel like at some stage.

Our limit to growth is only actually cheap energy. Giving infinite or near infinite energy, our growth would be monumental, soon interplanetary and then extrasolar in quick succession.

If the above isn't enough to calm the nerves, I still say to don't worry too much. European and North American economies are already sort of sabotaged from within and aren't going to continue growing any time soon anyway. Malthusian doomers are in office in most western countries so it's fine.
And, as always, bye bye.
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Yuli Ban
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Re: Infinite Growth, is it possible?

Post by Yuli Ban »

As technology advances, we'll be come vastly more efficient with our use of resources. We could maintain our current quality of life while using a small fraction of what we use nowadays.

Limits of resource usage will also force change to our ways of life, but provided the right technological revolution occurs, that won't be a problem. I'm under no delusion that people won't seek maximum prosperity and quality of life if they can afford it, so a forceful retraction into a far more PHYSICALLY "sustainable" way of life is likely to bring about bloodshed as people, rather than living within their means, instead fight each other to get as much as they can at others' expense.

To me, the ideal outcome is instead offering virtual post-scarcity while reducing physical consumption.

For example: let's say I want to indulge myself as a horrific hedonist, a total mukbang dystopia in my own home. Full-dive VR also exists. Now I COULD dwell in a terrifying state of degeneration, engorging myself on tens of thousands of calories daily if I hated myself that much, leading to the extinction of some whole species for my own pleasure... but if I could be hooked up to FIVR and sustainable caloric intake while my brain is convinced I've gone mad with consumption in some other virtual world, the same ends are reached. But one is far less destructive than the other.

It admittedly sounds fairly inhuman, but if you're that desperate to bring about the days of "Every Man a King," better this method than literally pushing the Earth to its limits to sustain billions of kings/queens. Not that every person would choose this way, of course. But as long as it's available, the question of why someone would seek physical excess becomes more of a philosophical one. Maybe they don't want to be "fooled" into a utopian Matrix and view IRL decadence as not only a good thing but their birthright should they seek it. Or maybe they just hate advanced technology and think the older ways are better, while simultaneously believing that there are kings and there are paupers— and they should be a king.

Who knows, it's a very complicated subject that we'll have to answer soon as we push this planet towards ecological collapse.

On that same note: infinite growth is cancerous thinking (literally).
And remember my friend, future events such as these will affect you in the future
Tadasuke
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Re: Infinite Growth, is it possible?

Post by Tadasuke »

We need infinite growth to further our virtual realities exponentially. As our expectations for virtual realities increase exponentially and the number of people also increases, we will need exponentially more computation. I personally believe in infinite growth, just like some Singularitarians, for example Ray Kurzweil. I just think that some of the timelines are too optimistic in their timing (like the Singularity happening as soon as 2045). We will at least need to create a humongous Matrioshka Brain around our Sun and possibly even something more far-fetching to satisfy our growing needs. We are now accustomed to exponential change and we won't easily accept it being over (at least that's the case with me). But for now, we should concentrate on making computers and other things (like cars or airplanes) more efficient. I think that degrowth people are cancer.
Global economy doubles in product every 15-20 years. Computer performance at a constant price doubles nowadays every 4 years on average. Livestock-as-food will globally stop being a thing by ~2050 (precision fermentation and more). Human stupidity, pride and depravity are the biggest problems of our world.
Tadasuke
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Re: Infinite Growth, is it possible?

Post by Tadasuke »

Look: the more efficient computers get, the more energy they use (such a paradox). Graphics cards used to take 5 watts. Now 600 watts graphics cards are coming. Consoles used to take 5 watts, now they take 200 watts. Servers, data centers and supercomputers are becoming larger. That's why we are going to become Kardashev Type 1, then 2, then 3, then 4 and then 5 civilization. Another example: Intel 4004 in Q4 1971 used only 0.6 watts (!) and Q1 2023 i9-13900KS is going to use 300 watts (!), which is 500x (!) more. That is despite all the enormous efficiency gains.

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Global economy doubles in product every 15-20 years. Computer performance at a constant price doubles nowadays every 4 years on average. Livestock-as-food will globally stop being a thing by ~2050 (precision fermentation and more). Human stupidity, pride and depravity are the biggest problems of our world.
Tadasuke
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Re: Infinite Growth, is it possible?

Post by Tadasuke »

By the way, I was personally messaging to many cryptocurrency miners and mining gear sellers, explaining that what they were doing is wrong, evil and completely unnecessary and they all laughed at me 😔. I try to conserve energy and resources. This is for example what Christopher Barnatt advises. But sorry, Raspberry Pi is too slow for me. Crypto-mining is one of the things wasting energy. Because AI and scientific research on computers is needed. Gaming is bringing fun and happiness to people, so it's also needed. We just don't necessarily need 1 kilowatt PCs, we can limit them to use less energy like I do (undervolting). Buying a new PC can make sense, because a decade newer PCs have 10x better efficiency. I also conserved resources by waiting 11 years to buy a completely new PC, which would be sufficiently better in every way (if you buy lower-end stuff, you need to replace it more often).
Global economy doubles in product every 15-20 years. Computer performance at a constant price doubles nowadays every 4 years on average. Livestock-as-food will globally stop being a thing by ~2050 (precision fermentation and more). Human stupidity, pride and depravity are the biggest problems of our world.
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BaobabScion
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Re: Infinite Growth, is it possible?

Post by BaobabScion »

Tadasuke wrote: Fri Sep 16, 2022 9:49 am I think that degrowth people are cancer.
The fact that you don't see the irony in this statement is mind-boggling. Have you really let hope for Singularity TM become the center of your whole identity?
Tadasuke
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Re: Infinite Growth, is it possible?

Post by Tadasuke »

BaobabScion wrote: Fri Sep 16, 2022 2:27 pm
Tadasuke wrote: Fri Sep 16, 2022 9:49 am I think that degrowth people are cancer.
The fact that you don't see the irony in this statement is mind-boggling. Have you really let hope for Singularity TM become the center of your whole identity?
I hate the idea of no exponential growth. Only exponential growth gives any reason to live, learn or do stuff. I subscribe to Julian Simon's statement that infinite (or at least far, far, far greater than today) growth is possible, achievable and will be done. I see no point in contemplating future of degrowth. That's a reason for suicide, not for reading, writing books or working.
Global economy doubles in product every 15-20 years. Computer performance at a constant price doubles nowadays every 4 years on average. Livestock-as-food will globally stop being a thing by ~2050 (precision fermentation and more). Human stupidity, pride and depravity are the biggest problems of our world.
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R8Z
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Re: Infinite Growth, is it possible?

Post by R8Z »

Tadasuke wrote: Fri Sep 16, 2022 8:57 pm
BaobabScion wrote: Fri Sep 16, 2022 2:27 pm
Tadasuke wrote: Fri Sep 16, 2022 9:49 am I think that degrowth people are cancer.
The fact that you don't see the irony in this statement is mind-boggling. Have you really let hope for Singularity TM become the center of your whole identity?
I hate the idea of no exponential growth. Only exponential growth gives any reason to live, learn or do stuff. I subscribe to Julian Simon's statement that infinite (or at least far, far, far greater than today) growth is possible, achievable and will be done. I see no point in contemplating future of degrowth. That's a reason for suicide, not for reading, writing books or working.
Only exponential growth gives any reason to live, learn or do stuff.

- Tadasuke
I really like that quote. Any futurist that wants to dismiss compounding growth isn't really a futurist or is on a conflicting mindset. You can't have an insanely developed future without exponential growth.
And, as always, bye bye.
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MythOfProgress
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Re: Infinite Growth, is it possible?

Post by MythOfProgress »

wasn't gonna respond since i'm on a bit of a hiatus, but reflecting upon some of the comments- suppose there's a few points to make.
The universe is relatively infinite giving our human scale. Even the solar system is quite immense and will surely fulfill all our needs as a species.
it doesn't really matter about how "large" or "grand" the universe is if we don't have any adequate ways of traveling amongst the stars, SpaceX doesn't really count considering their goals are flawed(i.e elon muskrat setting unrealistic timelines, making wild claims with no factual evidence to back them up) and frankly their tests in the starbase launch site in boca chica(which they've never gotten an actual permit for building by the FAA)i is constantly destroying the habitat as a result of all the space launches they've committed themselves to performing.

moving back onto your original point, unless there's actual avenues of reliable energy and materials (like oil, coal or natural gas) to be found, i'll probably change my tune considering how the government gets whenever there's a new source of oil to be had-even then there's a pretty good chance fighting over it is going to be involved as we get pushed to our limits.
Earth is effectively untouched so far, we're literally (and here I mean literally literally) skimming the surface of the planet,
ummmm no, in case you haven't noticed- we've already bypassed the 420 ppm mark for CO2 levels, the originally safe(or safer in comparison) option being 350 ppm, our ability to procure materials and food is going to be extremely limited in an environment that is constantly beset with extreme weather events, supply chains being disrupted if not destroyed, and food production becoming limited as every country with major food production system under-perform.
Our limit to growth is only actually cheap energy. Giving infinite or near infinite energy, our growth would be monumental, soon interplanetary and then extrasolar in quick succession.
our limits to growth besides the cheap and easily accessible oil we've wasted, also involve the aforementioned food production process, industrialization by way of certain materials and minerals as reserves lower, population growth exceeding current resources, and consumption of those nonrenewable resources. moving aside those points, renewable, geothermal or hydroelectric energy isn't really infinite so something tells me you're probably placing your bets on nuclear.

while it would be a great way of generating energy, the fact is we have don't have nearly enough uranium in the world to commit to this, or enough time as these power plants take an inordinate amount of time to commission- even if we've figured out the secret to nuclear energy without any of these challenges in a certain amount of time, there's a chance we'd still collapse(perhaps even more quickly than at the rate we are now) due to our "infinite" energy outstripping materials needed and that increases in energy gains or efficiency or almost always followed with higher energy demand. this would not bode well for us in the long-term.
Malthusian doomers are in office in most western countries so it's fine.
lol, i appreciate your transparent attempt at making us a credible threat to the status quo but the truth is we don't have that much power in the face of the establishment- if this were the case then i'm pretty sure our response to climate change if not most environmental woes that plague us would be a lot different than what we're experiencing which is mostly massive forms of denial, apathy, ignorance, gaslighting or just a general inability to confront the reality that we're facing, which is an existential crisis coming to uproot most forms of life.

if you want to fix your reality, you have to live in it- this isn't the case with the "mathusian doomers" in office you've mentioned-so much as it is the corncuopian optimists telling people what they want to hear- which is that everything is fine, we still have time to change, we can still have a good life, the future is always better than the past, never give up.
Last edited by MythOfProgress on Sat Sep 17, 2022 12:57 pm, edited 1 time in total.
R.I.P Ziba.
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