What happened to the Russian Empire? It disintegrated at the end of an imperialist war. What happened to the Soviet Union? It disintegrated at the end of the Cold War. What will happen to the Russian Federation?
The answer is obvious, even if it saddens many. Russian patriotism is such that even those who do not support the Kremlin regime are not ready to recognize the imperial nature of the present Russian state. Even those who consider the present Russian government unjust, incompetent or simply dangerous believe in the survival of the Russian Federation with its present borders. Even people like me, who wish Ukraine a military victory and the Russian rulers an international trial, are not ready to admit that this will consequently lead to the end of the country itself.
Collapse has long been feared and predicted. It could have been slowed down by taking advantage of the favorable economic situation, by relying on a competent government, a skillful diplomatic game or simply by counting on luck. The ruling party had managed to choose a name that reflected its deep fear of disintegration as well as its lack of other values: “United Russia.”
On the international scene, Russia’s partners did not want this disintegration. Some were grateful to the federation for ending еру dangerous and costly Cold War. Others simply resented the changes, whatever they might be, fearing those more than war itself. The collapse that threatens the federation will not happen because of foreign peoples or governments, but against their will and in contradiction to their predictions. It is likely that it will also happen against the will of the Russian population: such problems are not usually solved by voting.
For a long time — two decades — nothing really significant happened in Russia. Everything changed with the second Russian-Ukrainian war, a war that should never have been started by supporters of the idea of a united Russia. For those concerned about the preservation of the federation, the moment of truth has come.
It looks it's heading that way right now, whether this will be a full break up or what will happen is really not knowable. Chechnya could again try to break away. Also Nagorono-Karabakh will almost certainly be fully reintegrated into Azerbaijan on an accelerated timeline as a result of this...
I also think it is possible the UK could break apart by 2030 as well over the Northern Ireland protocol if it isn't handled well.
Xyls wrote: ↑Mon Sep 12, 2022 4:15 pm
It looks it's heading that way right now, whether this will be a full break up or what will happen is really not knowable. Chechnya could again try to break away. Also Nagorono-Karabakh will almost certainly be fully reintegrated into Azerbaijan on an accelerated timeline as a result of this...
I also think it is possible the UK could break apart by 2030 as well over the Northern Ireland protocol if it isn't handled well.
Chechnya possibly but in what form since they bow down to the Kremlin, it needs a massive government change to break away. Plus, the breakup of the UK is now inevitable due to Brexit.
"We all have our time machines, don't we. Those that take us back are memories...And those that carry us forward, are dreams."
Chechnya, Tuva and Dagestan have a supermajority of non-Russian ethnic groups and are on the borders of the country. Most other territories that pop-geopoliticians point at hover around and or are below a ~50% non-russian population. Even so, not all of these people, or even the majority of them hold anti-federation sentiment in many cases. Any territories that are within the Russian interior aren't even worth discussing, they rely wholly on the federation for all of their economic activity and would be easily repressed.
The most I can honestly see is if the Russian state were to become considerably weaker than maybe Dagestan and Chechnya could break away. That's really it, there would need to be a popular revolution and or civil war within the ethnic Russian population itself before anymore could happen. And to the western viewpoints dismay if there were another revolution it would be more likely to involve surrounding nations than to break Russia up further. Kazakhstan ironically if it were not for the current Russian state's interventions would have been a starting point for such a revolution.
