Is Civilization Collapsing?

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Lorem Ipsum
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Re: Is Civilization Collapsing?

Post by Lorem Ipsum »

MythOfProgress wrote: Sat Aug 27, 2022 8:58 am
Lorem Ipsum wrote: Sat Aug 27, 2022 3:00 am Can you move the discussion here to https://futuretimeline.net/forum/viewto ... f=5&t=2567 ?
???
did you mean to refer to another topic?
Yes, sorry. I thought I was in this thread:
https://futuretimeline.net/forum/viewto ... &start=140
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joe00uk
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Re: Is Civilization Collapsing?

Post by joe00uk »

Is civilisation collapsing? Kind of, but it would be more accurate to say that industrial civilisation is declining. That decline, by the way, isn’t happening everywhere all at once in the same way. It’s a very long and uneven process which has winners and losers of its own, as well as periods of crisis and periods of partial recovery and renewed stability. It happens in something like a stair step pattern.
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wjfox
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Re: Is Civilization Collapsing?

Post by wjfox »

joe00uk wrote: Sat Aug 27, 2022 11:13 am Is civilisation collapsing? Kind of, but it would be more accurate to say that industrial civilisation is declining. That decline, by the way, isn’t happening everywhere all at once in the same way. It’s a very long and uneven process which has winners and losers of its own, as well as periods of crisis and periods of partial recovery and renewed stability. It happens in something like a stair step pattern.
When do you think the decline began? When was industrial civilisation's "peak"?
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Re: Is Civilization Collapsing?

Post by wjfox »

Tadasuke wrote: Thu Aug 25, 2022 8:36 am - the Great Coral Reef is flourishing
I don't have time to read through this entire thread, but I just have to say, this specific point simply isn't true.

There was a temporary recovery recently, but only in certain parts of the Reef. The overall, long-term situation is catastrophic and will likely result in 99% of the Reef vanishing by 2050.

Corals are very, very sensitive to temperature and ocean acidity. It might be possible to save some parts via technological means, e.g. 3D printed corals as we've seen demonstrated recently, or perhaps relocating them to deeper waters. But the Reef certainly isn't "flourishing" right now – several major and unprecedented bleaching events have occurred in the last 20 years, and ocean temperatures continue to increase rapidly.

P.S. It's Great Barrier Reef.
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funkervogt
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Re: Is Civilization Collapsing?

Post by funkervogt »

You seem to believe that things are getting worse in every way, which is just as unlikely as a belief system that says everything is getting better. Do you acknowledge that your own way of thinking is biased?
without any basis for it, sure, there's definitely some bias to be had in catastrophizing everything
It's bad to be so comfortable with your own biases.
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joe00uk
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Re: Is Civilization Collapsing?

Post by joe00uk »

wjfox wrote: Sat Aug 27, 2022 1:33 pm When do you think the decline began? When was industrial civilisation's "peak"?
In general, I would say most aspects of the decline began around the 1970s in the Western world with the oil crisis and stagflation. On the other hand, for countries like China, I would say their decline hasn't even started yet because they've been able to prosper from the decline of the West. Their time will come, but probably not for a number of decades. Like I say, it's all very uneven.
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SerethiaFalcon
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Re: Is Civilization Collapsing?

Post by SerethiaFalcon »

-Removed post-
Not needed anymore. The discussion is completed and resolved on my end.
Last edited by SerethiaFalcon on Sat Nov 12, 2022 4:29 am, edited 1 time in total.
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MythOfProgress
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Re: Is Civilization Collapsing?

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I'll just say this, you are coming at life from an atheistic or materialist perspective, but I don't have such views, so I don't have the same perspective as you on dying and such. So, we won't see eye to eye on that
Taking a second reading at your 2nd reply, there is one thing that catches my eye, which is the part where you mentioned "All we are hyperventilating about is that human civilization will not be able to survive...it's still all about humans. Which is fine, it's just that, it's not like the entire universe is ending or something. Life will continue somewhere else most likely at some point. No one will be around to care about what humans did in their tiny lifetimes anyway. So, for now, I mean, the pessimism doesn't match the scale of us as lifeforms, measly dots on a tiny planet in a tiny solar system in one of millions of galaxies. "
for one, i don't recall myself saying anything about being primarily worried about humans, it's the various other species and lifeforms on the planet that didn't exactly get a chance at survival, sure you could always talk about plenty of species that have gone extinct in the past and i'll argue that they didn't have much of a choice in that matter compared to now, where we as human beings have the exceptional ability for reasoning and thinking on time-scales far beyond our own, manipulating the world- to which we have the ability to be stewards(not rulers) of our planet and engage in more sustainable practices that would have us last longer than we would by operating on more extractive processes.

two, this reads more like a disassociative/depersonalized, nihilistic take more than it does come across as a spiritual, if not pantheistic way of viewing our world, so if you would like to elaborate more on your perspective, i'm all for it.

three, i don't recall saying anything about how i feel in regards to death, merely pointing out the dying process of our civilization and while you may have come to terms with something like this in the form of acceptance or resignation, plenty of others are still in the process of denial, anger or bargaining and plenty of others have not even begun the process of grief. leaving a few pointers and explainations as to why this is, isn't really gonna hurt anyone in the long-run of things.
I have been suicidal as recently as 2020, and before that, it was 2010. I have also known many people who have been suicidal in my life (one who I actually witnessed in the throes of a bad liver due to taking too many pills). That is why I bring up that issue. For people trying to cling to life, it is very bad (in my opinion) to encourage their suicidalness. Sometimes, things can't be helped, but, if someone is trying to survive but fighting an uphill battle, it is like the floor being taken from under them. But, do with that information what you will.
im sorry to hear that you've struggled with this, it's understandable (or as understandable as can be when faced with a world like ours), but i'll restate what i've said-which is i dont want people to kill themselves-merely understand that this is something they will resort to when most if not all options have been exhausted, when the conditions for helping people in a world like ours have shrinked if not become eliminated entirely (like in the mental health crisis we currently experience, the healthcare systems collapsing, communities perishing so that individuals remain and don't have support systems to rely on or the inability for most government services to treat, manage or help folks in the way they were originally designed to) are you going to keep someone who is in pain, on life support? you have to take into account someone's quality of life, and if they are in pain(in a way that can't be alleviated, managed or coped with effectively so that their quality of life is acceptable) do you keep them around? i'm not advocating for people to start jumping off rooftops and blowing their heads off,it's a tragedy when things like these happen, but you have to give grace for people who feel that way and understand if their circumstances in life will not allow for them to improve their conditions and want to escape the only way they know how.
But, some of the even more isolated tribes that remain would go on with life as usual. Not all of humanity is interconnected with the US or the modern world, just most. Some groups of people are much closer to a non-modern way of living, so they would more easily transition than cities and more modernized, technology-dependent groups of people.
that's my entire point, that even the tribes that haven't participated in the extractive ways of the modern world will be victim to the abrupt climate change that will occur in our lifetimes, our biosphere is dying and so they won't have any other way of hunting or gathering food as most if not all our ecosystems will have died off, so they'll be subject to the same careening temperatures that will level off and make for unsuitable environments.
You care about intelligent life existing, but I don't. It would be sad for humanity to die sure, and there may be no intelligent life forms left, but that's our own fault, and if it wasn't oh well. I don't care about that stuff in the same way you do. Universes go through changes all the time. It is what it is. Nothing to hyperventilate about, for my own worldview. I value life itself, even if it is unintelligent, but, things change all the time. We will suffer for what seems like an eternity but is only a brief moment, then it's over.
i care about most forms of life, not just intelligent, you can pretend to be the cool, depersonalized nihilist(or not, feel free to explain your perspective) that isn't affected on the grounds of "vastness" but keep in mind people will suffer, wither and die as time goes on, you are part of Earth whether you like it or not, this is something you'll observe and be witness to as the times go on.
You also seem to assume I am naive and have never suffered. Maybe I haven't suffered as much as others, but I have seen suffering up close and personal, in ways that people in the US haven't seen (at least some haven't seen, yet). It aggravates me how many times in my life it seems people assume I've had it easy and that I have no idea what death is like (despite being present when someone has been near death several times/struggling with the desire for death myself).
never said that you haven't experienced adversity, merely that its easy to take a bird's eye view of people's suffering when in comfort- that said it's unfortunate you've had to go through suicidal urges and see folks being near death.
Most recently, in 2020, there was a time I had an illness but was confused about my state's covid rules, so I stayed home, and one night, I struggled to breathe and thought I wouldn't wake up in the morning. My life flashed before my eyes in a sense, but my suffering didn't mean I forgot about the cosmos. It is actually difficult for me to be physically and mentally present sometimes unless I am going through extreme pain. Even then, I get used to it after a while, due to the fact that I have a lot of emotional pain, so physical pain is just an added thing. More recently, I had some bad disease that caused me to get a temperature of 103, almost. While my life didn't flash before my eyes, I did almost have to go to the hospital.
it's interesting when you mentioned the part of you not being present sometimes, if you dont mind me asking- is this a common occurrence and if so has it ever been diagnosed? cause that sounds a lot like the depersonalization/disassociative state i've mentioned a few times before.
Also, I always say I'm on borrowed time because I am. I got extremely suicidal in my college years and tried to run away from school. Almost entered into a stranger's car, because I just wanted my life to end and I didn't care if I was trafficked or whatever. But, a voice told me no. My hand was literally hovering close to the handle of the people's car. Then, I got completely abandoned at the hospital ward by my school, because they did not handle my situation appropriately and I didn't realize what was going on. Try being completely and utterly alone while you are in a state of shock/PTSD, with strangers asking you questions and getting tested with who knows what, and then being put in an area that you aren't allowed to get out of on your own. Your life being completely controlled by strangers. All with the confusion brought upon you by not understanding what was going on due to the shock and PTSD. I was lucky because my family did show up (some of them), but it still felt like abandonment because nobody was with me for quite a while, through the most difficult parts, and there were other issues, but anyway.

Also, try being dragged from one country to another, put on display constantly like you are some kind of doll for a church to admire, knowing if you act up, the consequences will be severe for everyone. You don't even have a home in your home country, you just bounce around between grandparents and the occasional temporary house. By the age of ten or so, you have moved houses, which sometimes includes different states or countries at least ten times. Sometimes when you return to your home country, you don't even recognize your own relatives. And, every time you move, you leave behind everything that was familiar, that you knew, that you cared about. And suddenly, you are in a new place, and you never feel like everyone else inside but you learn to be a chameleon. The only constant is your family and your religion. Then your family leaves you at college in a culture that you hadn't been in for four years, to try to cope on your own. It feels like abandonment. Eventually, you end up abandoning your religion too for a different path, which creates a kind of turmoil in your family, so that is no longer a stable point either. So basically, you have reset your entire foundation in life. You have no place that feels like home, no family that you can connect with well (and eventually reject), and only a partner (who has gone through extreme trauma themselves, what most people never see in a lifetime) and a barely hanging-on type of existence. That's been my life in a nutshell. It's not to say I haven't made wrong choices, or that I could have done some things better. But, it's just that, I've been through a lot of shit. Some self-caused, and some not. And that's not to count all the things I've seen and experienced living in a culture vastly different from the one I was from as well. Despite all I've been through, I still have the perspective that my suffering is but a drop in a sea of vast proportions. I'm but a speck that will be here and then will be gone. I can agree that most humans, they cannot get out of their suffering to see the bigger picture, but since some of my suffering is nearly constant, getting out of my head into the bigger picture helps me sometimes and is easier for me to do than most.
it's definitely difficult, coping with all of these life-changing events/processes especially when they happen fast, practicing mindfulness techniques tends to help best for some though.
Personally, I think pessimism is something only people who can afford to think philosophically engage in.
everyone is capable of philosophical thought, it's just the world we live in doesn't always allow for this to be the case, usually due to time constraints and trying to survive on a day-to-day basis.
I rarely met anyone in my life who was poor and engaged in the kind of pessimism I see on the internet.
, if someone is focused merely on survival-they definitely aren't going to think about things in a philsophical manner because they can't for the moment. it's basic maslow's hierachy of needs, someone is going to be more focused on fulfilling their physiological needs more than they are focused on self-actualization and philosophizing as a concept.
In fact, I would say, if the poor person had a community and took joy in the little things, they were probably happier than the wealthier people. Doesn't mean their lives couldn't have improved further, only to say that ignorance of how bad things really are can sometimes be bliss.
another point i've been trying to make, anomie has become the norm in our society, we're been experiencing this for quite a while and our support networks have fallen apart, which contributes to the loneliness epidemic we've witnessed.
On the contrary, when people go through great suffering, it is hope, not despair that usually has them moving forward. Either that or a kind of numb-forced existence. But, it is surprising how people with very little or who suffer a lot, can bounce back if they have community support. I find that a loving or supportive community is more common in how miserable or not miserable people are, rather than other factors.
false hope sets people back in terms of accepting and coming to terms with the eventual fate which is our death, subsuming folks in despair is not the primary goal although its going to be a major part of the process when it comes to the eventualities we'll experience. anything i've said before about the community support, is reflected in my prior statements and how this is something that's been caused by our hyper-individualistic culture.
while im not entirely of the buddhist philosophy, i understand the impermanence of our society and understanding that suffering is part of our lives, that being said- i'm not about to start dismissing the ways we can minimize said suffering.
R.I.P Ziba.
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erowind
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Re: Is Civilization Collapsing?

Post by erowind »

joe00uk wrote: Sat Aug 27, 2022 3:50 pm In general, I would say most aspects of the decline began around the 1970s in the Western world with the oil crisis and stagflation. On the other hand, for countries like China, I would say their decline hasn't even started yet because they've been able to prosper from the decline of the West. Their time will come, but probably not for a number of decades. Like I say, it's all very uneven.
Your estimate and observation lines up with the tendency for the rate of profit to fall in the respective countries mentioned. The rate of profit has been declining since the 1860s as far as we know. The decline mirrors industrial development consistently, when economies begin to industrialize they have high rates of profits and then over time it falls due to the contradiction between greater efficiency caused by industrial saturation and lower labor input into industrial systems as that efficiency muscles out human input. This is the classical marxist definition at least, as labor is the source of value in marxist economics. I'd add that it's outdated and doesn't account for things like resource scarcity or ecology though it is remarkably forward thinking and accounts for automation, increased labor exploitation, and foreign trade among others things which Marx calls tendencies and countertendencies in relation to the rate of profit respective to their effects.

In any case, for whatever combination of reasons the phenomena exists, we can observe the rate of profit falling across various industrial economies. The United States itself has been in most severe decline since 1965 (coincidentally (maybe not so coincidental) very close in year to culmination of intensity of the civil rights movement in the US.)

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China despite still experiencing growth is already deep into the process of a declining rate of profit, albeit not as far along as western imperial economies (Where an imperial economy is defined as a country whos economy engages in unequal exchange of capital with other nations, where unequal exchange means that for any given exchange of capital X with a non-imperial nation the amount of capital Y returned to the imperial nation is consistently greater than the given capital X.)

The world rate of profit itself is falling and we're beginning to enter the advanced stages of that decline where most middle and lower income nations are also reaching their saturation points alongside the higher income countries, it should be expected that the coming decades will tend to have more "losers" than "winners."

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Tadasuke
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Re: Is Civilization Collapsing?

Post by Tadasuke »

I'm not going to waste more time on negativity. If you want to be negative, then that's your choice, you feel worse and achieve nothing substantial.


I'm currently on a bicycle trip and shouldn't be writing. After that I will be talking with a friend for an hour, about AI and anime. And then I will be watching an 80s anime I prepared some time ago. I'm not going to waste half a day or so on pointless negativity that only brings misery. You know why there is so much mental health issues? Partially because of all that negativity that is around.

I literally don't know a single person who isn't better off economically compared to 20 years ago, despite Covid. My grandma says that her every subsequent washing machine was cheaper compared to what money she gets than the previous one. River in our city is cleaner than 20 years ago. My parents friend who is a major local real estate developer says that they easily sell what they are building. Everywhere I look around me things are richer than they were 20 years ago. There is less crime and less pollution because of less polluting cars and renewable energy. Everywhere something new is being built or renovated. Solar panels have become exponentially more noticeable. Everything where I live is better than it was 20 years ago: lights, paint on walls, the windows, furniture, chair, the floor, the door, amount of stuff, the PC, the laptop etc.

As I'm waiting for my smartphone to charge, I will write that it's much much easier to point out things that have become worse over the last 20 years, because to point out everything that has become better, I would have to list thousands of things.

In the last 20 years there is:
- more obesity
- seems like more mental health issues
- Covid-19 is annoying and some people have health problems from it
- microtransactions, which I hate
- annoying windows you have to close after opening a website
- socialism seems to be on the rise, which is bad
- Social Justice Warriors are sometimes overdoing things and making things seem more problematic than they really are
- some species got near extinction or extinct
- bad, stupid people doing and writing bad things on-line, which they couldn't had done in the 1980s or 1990s
- possibly more negativity, for reasons not well understood by me
That's what I came up with. Everything else got better since 2002. So definitely the positives far outweigh the negatives. The details aren't as important as the overall trends. I may sometimes be wrong about some details, but the overarching trends are clear.

I personally am for wisdom, beauty, strength, peacefulness, abundance, affluence and fun. Against ignorance, ugliness, weakness, disorder, war, poverty, abjection and boredom.

Life on Earth has never been good, at any given time. It was always bad. Full of filth, pain, suffering, death and scarcity. I refuse to believe it will get worse, because it was never good to begin with. We were never at a point when things were actually good. So there's no decline, no collapse. Instead, it will get exponentially better. In the next century, we will be a post-scarcity civilization. People won't decline with age. Nearly everyone will be rich by today's standards (but standards will change) and happy. We will spend most time in VR and robots will be serving us and expanding our civilization, our reach in this Universe exponentially. Believing otherwise makes life unbearable and intolerable, unless you believe in some kind of religion, which I don't. Otherwise, living makes no sense. Our future is great, but there will be some problems along the way, which we have to solve and we will solve.
Global economy doubles in product every 15-20 years. Computer performance at a constant price doubles nowadays every 4 years on average. Livestock-as-food will globally stop being a thing by ~2050 (precision fermentation and more). Human stupidity, pride and depravity are the biggest problems of our world.
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