Is Civilization Collapsing?

[MythOfProgress]

I wish you the best of luck.

ditto. cheers.

[R8Z]

We have a saying for these times of gloom and doom: "Enquanto uns choram, outros vendem lenços".

A tangential, but interesting index: https://www.gallup.com/394505/indicator ... index.aspx

Also this one, even better: https://news.gallup.com/poll/397286/poo ... -high.aspx

[wjfox]

we are experiencing a severe economic contraction

Erm...

[Tadasuke]

No, civilization is not collapsing.
- worldwide average GDP per capita is doubling every 20 years
- average prices of top 50 most used resources halve every 14 years
- extreme poverty and poverty are diminishing
- more and more middle-class citizens ascend to higher-class
- hunger and starvation are significantly lessening, food is becoming more abundant and cheaper (more people die from obesity than from malnutrition)
- water is becoming more abundant and cheaper (thanks to clever tech), new radar scanning techniques can reveal immense reservoirs of water under the most barren and impoverished territories on Earth
- there are less wars and war deaths worldwide
- life expectancy is increasing everywhere except USA and Russia, by 10 years in Africa between 2000 and 2019
- automation is increasing exponentially
- productivity worldwide is improving significantly and rather quickly
- the number of scientific papers and patents is increasing exponentially
- number of teenage pregnancies is dropping in every country
- affordability of decent housing worldwide is improving and the number of meters squared per person increases every decade (the average new U.S. house floor space increased by 2.5x since the 1950s and there are 25% less people in an average house)
- rainfall in Africa increased during the last 30 years
- there are more trees in the world than 30 or 100 years ago (thanks to planting and more CO2)
- Sahara desert is shrinking (the opposite that people were terrified of 30 or 40 years ago) and new trees are being planted
- the Great Coral Reef is flourishing
- the ozone hole is getting smaller, the ozone layer is rebuilding
- there is still a lot of fossil fuels left
- yields of various crops are steadily improving
- endangered species are being saved and they multiply
- cars that run on batteries are exponentially becoming more popular and widespread (batteries are still getting cheaper and better), global EV fleet is about 25 million cars this year
- literacy rate is still going up, especially among females
- the number of high school and university degrees is increasing worldwide
- computing power per $ is improving by 1000x every 20 years and there is no end of computing growth in sight
- the number of objects launched into space is increasing exponentially and rapidly (not only by the USA)
- cumulative millions of miles driven by prototype autonomous vehicles grows exponentially
- access to information has been democratized
- greenhouse gas emissions by developed countries is going down, not up
- efficiency of economies is going up, not down, there is more work done per kWh
- new nuclear power plants (including modular, mini ones), solar, wind, geothermal and water power plants are constantly being built
- medicine is still getting better, diseases that plagued humanity for millenia are now being eradicated
- even baldness is now being fixed and reversing cognitive decline is starting to become possible

I could go on and on, but I think that's enough. If you are not convinced, then you are a part of the problem.

[MythOfProgress]

We have a saying for these times of gloom and doom: "Enquanto uns choram, outros vendem lenços"

So capitalists.... capitalize? wow, such brilliance, suppose you're gonna tell me pulling myself up by my bootstraps is the next best thing to do? am i right or am i right?

A tangential, but interesting index: https://www.gallup.com/394505/indicator ... index.aspx

leaving aside the fact you can't exactly quantify someone's quality of life since there is a wide variety of factors that play into it- the data(which i'm not gonna debate whether it is or isnt reputable, at least not entirely)itself doesn't show the big picture in regards to our environment, decay in our social institutions and the brain rot that currently manifests itself as fascism.

taking it at face value, it still doesn't really paint a good picture as 58% are struggling with their lives and another 15% are suffering, which means a combined 73% of the population are not happy with their lives (when it comes to the global evaluation index at least).

Also this one, even better: https://news.gallup.com/poll/397286/poo ... -high.aspx

took a look at it, seems a little inconsistent when it comes to the US index as it depicts the rate of suffering actually increasing though i suppose this was done at a later time as i look at the dates, the implications section pretty much elaborates what i've been saying , economic conditions steadily getting worse and making life unbearable for many.

when there's a plague, don't confuse the silence between the coughing fits as peace or signs of good health, it's just silence.

[MythOfProgress]

we are experiencing a severe economic contraction

Erm...

Cute graph, am i to suppose you haven't noticed the last two consecutive quarters we've experienced had negative GDP growth? or that the Federal Reserve is hiking up interest rates in response to this? as far as anyone's concerned, we've been printing money like there's no tomorrow- the natural consequences of this are going to catch up with us sooner or later- sooner seems to be the answer cropping up a lot more as of late.

[MythOfProgress]

worldwide average GDP per capita is doubling every 20 years

source?

average prices of top 50 most used resources halve every 14 years

source?

extreme poverty and poverty are diminishing

yeah sure, and i'm jeff bezos- unless you have an actual source for this(not the Steven Pinker/Our World in Data one, i've already pointed out the flawed nature of the data plenty of times at this point- just scroll through a few of my earlier posts)im not gonna bother wrestling with this one. also, did you mean to say hunger for the second one? cause the repetition is a little jarring, either that or you meant normal/moderate poverty.

- more and more middle-class citizens ascend to higher-class

so you mean to tell me over the past 40 or so years, wages haven't stagnated and have in fact been corrected/increased to adjust for inflation growth? oh well butter my biscuit. gonna need a source for that once again.

hunger and starvation are significantly lessening, food is becoming more abundant and cheaper (more people die from obesity than from malnutrition)

yeah, except there's actual physical limits (as in the land requirements) to how much crops we can grow and the fact that global crop yields will definitely be affected by climate change, not gonna mention the overshoot aspect just yet considering most will have to come to gripes with the climate collapsing before they understand how our civilization is drawing down energy from the future to make ourselves more comfortable in the present.

our vegetation and ability to harvest will be severely impacted by the intense heat alone, most mammals/plants cannot survive/operate effectively in 120+ degree weather. as for the last one, i suppose you could count America as an example of this, but even here people still can't get as much food- depending on whether or not if they are food-insecure as a result of food prices having increased- people are having to cut costs or decide what things to sacrifice in their lives in order to just survive.

water is becoming more abundant and cheaper (thanks to clever tech), new radar scanning techniques can reveal immense reservoirs of water under the most barren and impoverished territories on Earth

for the first, if you're talking about desalination technologies you'd have to understand the practice is extremely toxic and energy-intensive, the brine that's created from this process is almost always dumped in the ocean, to which the temperature increases and the oxygen levels decrease, creating a dead zone in the environment.
as for the second claim, i will say once again- where is your source?

also, do you not see the troubling implications when you mention how these reservoirs are in the "impoverished" territories? i can't help but feel like this is exactly what US imperialists will take advantage of when the time comes(that is if the source you provide is correct.)

- there are less wars and war deaths worldwide

debatable, but ok.

- life expectancy is increasing everywhere except USA and Russia, by 10 years in Africa between 2000 and 2019

source?

- automation is increasing exponentially

it's already increased exponentially, if you're talking about the type where we are replaced by humanoid robots(androids) and self-driving vehicles in our various tasks, i will be the first to let you know this isn't gonna happen anytime soon, re-creating the complex nature of our human bodies and brains in electronic/digital format would be something we'll have to wrestle for a good part of the century and even then, chances are- nobody is going to care about far-off fantasies when they are struggling to find adequate resources for survival.

productivity worldwide is improving significantly and rather quickly

i don't necessarily see this as a good thing, so much as it is something to be taken advantage by our corporate overlords, but if you really like what you do, all the more power to you. this is just something that encourages business as usual practices. even then, this is questionable when you take a look at how often people are quitting their jobs usually due to low pay, lack of benefits or lack of respect in the workplace, you know the Great Resignation?

- the number of scientific papers and patents is increasing exponentially

this statement doesn't really make sense to me, are you saying that scientists have just in general become super-humanly productive in releasing their patents/writing their papers? and that as a result we have access to more knowledge/power?

number of teenage pregnancies is dropping in every country

questionable, especially with the latest developments over here in the States regarding abortion laws, when it comes to other countries and their view on women/girls-i'd say it all depends on the political climate and whether or not they encourage education for women.

affordability of decent housing worldwide is improving and the number of meters squared per person increases every decade (the average new U.S. house floor space increased by 2.5x since the 1950s and there are 25% less people in an average house)

so what would you think about this? also, source?

- there are more trees in the world than 30 or 100 years ago (thanks to planting and more CO2)

you should be a comedian. no really. if you're serious about what you're typing-i hope you understand tree planting is not some holy grail, keeping older trees alive is just as important if not more relevant considering their ability for carbon sequestration is far greater compared to young/baby trees just starting out, not to mention the work involved in maintaining a tree.

- the Great Coral Reef is flourishing

so you mean to tell me it isn't bleaching?

- there is still a lot of fossil fuels left

having passed peak conventional oil sometime in the mid-to-late 2000s, we've been able to keep it up as a result of advances in hydro-fracking technologies, unfortunately this isn't really going to last us as soon you factor in the steadily declining EROEI and diminishing returns, our ability for extracting oil may have increased temporarily- but so has our energy consumption which goes to show this isn't something that'll solve our problems-so much as it is just to enhance them. a little outdated, but this pretty much demonstrates that global oil stockpiles are lower than expected.

yields of various crops are steadily improving

my earlier point about climate change affecting these crops still stands, also source?

- endangered species are being saved and they multiply

such as?

- cars that run on batteries are exponentially becoming more popular and widespread (batteries are still getting cheaper and better), global EV fleet is about 25 million cars this year

yeah, let's all transition to electric cars as if they are inherently sustainable and don't contribute to more CO2 on account of having to mine for more lithium,cobalt, nickel and various other rare earth minerals.

computing power per $ is improving by 1000x every 20 years and there is no end of computing growth in sight

extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence. this isn't any different.

the number of objects launched into space is increasing exponentially and rapidly (not only by the USA)

i get it, exponential is your favorite word, doesn't necessarily mean you can apply it to every concept. that being said, i don't see how this constitutes as good news(not that its bad), it just doesn't have any physical bearings on our environment(unless Kessler syndrome is in effect) or society as a whole. usually evidence of a better society would be prioritizing lower-class folk or vulnerable groups, not a bunch of rich people going up into space.

- cumulative millions of miles driven by prototype autonomous vehicles grows exponentially

again, this isn't really evidence of a better society so much as it is one that's not prioritizing basic needs over foolish wants, changing our public infrastructure and transport to be environmentally-friendly, close-knit and within walk-able distances would prove to be a lot more efficient, cost-effective and in general better for our mental health.

- access to information has been democratized

depends on which country you live in(i.e North Korea, China, Myanmar), but i suppose you're right.

greenhouse gas emissions by developed countries is going down, not up

this is so intellectually dishonest, it doesn't really warrant a response.

efficiency of economies is going up, not down, there is more work done per kWh

source?

new nuclear power plants (including modular, mini ones), solar, wind, geothermal and water power plants are constantly being built

and yet it will never scale up to the energy density of something like fossil fuels.

medicine is still getting better, diseases that plagued humanity for millenia are now being eradicated

antibiotic resistant diseases threaten to come back in droves, climate change is definitely gonna contribute more to this as the years go by.

- even baldness is now being fixed and reversing cognitive decline is starting to become possible

lol, to all my bald brethren and sisters, have pride in your condition and accept yourself for the uniqueness you have, i love you all.

I could go on and on, but I think that's enough. If you are not convinced, then you are a part of the problem.

in case you haven't noticed, we are all part of the problem, if you live in the global north where most of the developed countries reside you'll understand in time our industrialization has meant wonders for the human species(mostly a portion of it in one blip of history) but horrors for the environment and the biosphere we reside in, if you want to convince yourself our path for a better future still exists i won't stop you, but please do not point fingers or kill the messenger.

[Nero]

- automation is increasing exponentially

it's already increased exponentially, if you're talking about the type where we are replaced by humanoid robots(androids) and self-driving vehicles in our various tasks, i will be the first to let you know this isn't gonna happen anytime soon, re-creating the complex nature of our human bodies and brains in electronic/digital format would be something we'll have to wrestle for a good part of the century and even then, chances are- nobody is going to care about far-off fantasies when they are struggling to find adequate resources for survival.

On this particular issue, you're totally wrong. The vast, vast, vast, vast majority of work and labour are menial tasks that do not require an android or a machine with human equivalent intelligence to accomplish.

Numerous examples of recent automation:





https://blogs.sw.siemens.com/simcenter/ ... 0330912079



Automation has happened. Is happening and will continue to happen at an ever increasing rate. Even you aren't dumb enough to try and argue that these machines will somehow regress in ability.

[funkervogt]

worldwide average GDP per capita is doubling every 20 years

source?

average prices of top 50 most used resources halve every 14 years

source?

extreme poverty and poverty are diminishing

yeah sure, and i'm jeff bezos- unless you have an actual source for this(not the Steven Pinker/Our World in Data one, i've already pointed out the flawed nature of the data plenty of times at this point- just scroll through a few of my earlier posts)im not gonna bother wrestling with this one. also, did you mean to say hunger for the second one? cause the repetition is a little jarring, either that or you meant normal/moderate poverty.

- more and more middle-class citizens ascend to higher-class

so you mean to tell me over the past 40 or so years, wages haven't stagnated and have in fact been corrected/increased to adjust for inflation growth? oh well butter my biscuit. gonna need a source for that once again.

hunger and starvation are significantly lessening, food is becoming more abundant and cheaper (more people die from obesity than from malnutrition)

yeah, except there's actual physical limits (as in the land requirements) to how much crops we can grow and the fact that global crop yields will definitely be affected by climate change, not gonna mention the overshoot aspect just yet considering most will have to come to gripes with the climate collapsing before they understand how our civilization is drawing down energy from the future to make ourselves more comfortable in the present.

our vegetation and ability to harvest will be severely impacted by the intense heat alone, most mammals/plants cannot survive/operate effectively in 120+ degree weather. as for the last one, i suppose you could count America as an example of this, but even here people still can't get as much food- depending on whether or not if they are food-insecure as a result of food prices having increased- people are having to cut costs or decide what things to sacrifice in their lives in order to just survive.

water is becoming more abundant and cheaper (thanks to clever tech), new radar scanning techniques can reveal immense reservoirs of water under the most barren and impoverished territories on Earth

for the first, if you're talking about desalination technologies you'd have to understand the practice is extremely toxic and energy-intensive, the brine that's created from this process is almost always dumped in the ocean, to which the temperature increases and the oxygen levels decrease, creating a dead zone in the environment.
as for the second claim, i will say once again- where is your source?

also, do you not see the troubling implications when you mention how these reservoirs are in the "impoverished" territories? i can't help but feel like this is exactly what US imperialists will take advantage of when the time comes(that is if the source you provide is correct.)

- there are less wars and war deaths worldwide

debatable, but ok.

- life expectancy is increasing everywhere except USA and Russia, by 10 years in Africa between 2000 and 2019

source?

- automation is increasing exponentially

it's already increased exponentially, if you're talking about the type where we are replaced by humanoid robots(androids) and self-driving vehicles in our various tasks, i will be the first to let you know this isn't gonna happen anytime soon, re-creating the complex nature of our human bodies and brains in electronic/digital format would be something we'll have to wrestle for a good part of the century and even then, chances are- nobody is going to care about far-off fantasies when they are struggling to find adequate resources for survival.

productivity worldwide is improving significantly and rather quickly

i don't necessarily see this as a good thing, so much as it is something to be taken advantage by our corporate overlords, but if you really like what you do, all the more power to you. this is just something that encourages business as usual practices. even then, this is questionable when you take a look at how often people are quitting their jobs usually due to low pay, lack of benefits or lack of respect in the workplace, you know the Great Resignation?

- the number of scientific papers and patents is increasing exponentially

this statement doesn't really make sense to me, are you saying that scientists have just in general become super-humanly productive in releasing their patents/writing their papers? and that as a result we have access to more knowledge/power?

number of teenage pregnancies is dropping in every country

questionable, especially with the latest developments over here in the States regarding abortion laws, when it comes to other countries and their view on women/girls-i'd say it all depends on the political climate and whether or not they encourage education for women.

affordability of decent housing worldwide is improving and the number of meters squared per person increases every decade (the average new U.S. house floor space increased by 2.5x since the 1950s and there are 25% less people in an average house)

so what would you think about this? also, source?

- there are more trees in the world than 30 or 100 years ago (thanks to planting and more CO2)

you should be a comedian. no really. if you're serious about what you're typing-i hope you understand tree planting is not some holy grail, keeping older trees alive is just as important if not more relevant considering their ability for carbon sequestration is far greater compared to young/baby trees just starting out, not to mention the work involved in maintaining a tree.

- the Great Coral Reef is flourishing

so you mean to tell me it isn't bleaching?

- there is still a lot of fossil fuels left

having passed peak conventional oil sometime in the mid-to-late 2000s, we've been able to keep it up as a result of advances in hydro-fracking technologies, unfortunately this isn't really going to last us as soon you factor in the steadily declining EROEI and diminishing returns, our ability for extracting oil may have increased temporarily- but so has our energy consumption which goes to show this isn't something that'll solve our problems-so much as it is just to enhance them. a little outdated, but this pretty much demonstrates that global oil stockpiles are lower than expected.

yields of various crops are steadily improving

my earlier point about climate change affecting these crops still stands, also source?

- endangered species are being saved and they multiply

such as?

- cars that run on batteries are exponentially becoming more popular and widespread (batteries are still getting cheaper and better), global EV fleet is about 25 million cars this year

yeah, let's all transition to electric cars as if they are inherently sustainable and don't contribute to more CO2 on account of having to mine for more lithium,cobalt, nickel and various other rare earth minerals.

computing power per $ is improving by 1000x every 20 years and there is no end of computing growth in sight

extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence. this isn't any different.

the number of objects launched into space is increasing exponentially and rapidly (not only by the USA)

i get it, exponential is your favorite word, doesn't necessarily mean you can apply it to every concept. that being said, i don't see how this constitutes as good news(not that its bad), it just doesn't have any physical bearings on our environment(unless Kessler syndrome is in effect) or society as a whole. usually evidence of a better society would be prioritizing lower-class folk or vulnerable groups, not a bunch of rich people going up into space.

- cumulative millions of miles driven by prototype autonomous vehicles grows exponentially

again, this isn't really evidence of a better society so much as it is one that's not prioritizing basic needs over foolish wants, changing our public infrastructure and transport to be environmentally-friendly, close-knit and within walk-able distances would prove to be a lot more efficient, cost-effective and in general better for our mental health.

- access to information has been democratized

depends on which country you live in(i.e North Korea, China, Myanmar), but i suppose you're right.

greenhouse gas emissions by developed countries is going down, not up

this is so intellectually dishonest, it doesn't really warrant a response.

efficiency of economies is going up, not down, there is more work done per kWh

source?

new nuclear power plants (including modular, mini ones), solar, wind, geothermal and water power plants are constantly being built

and yet it will never scale up to the energy density of something like fossil fuels.

medicine is still getting better, diseases that plagued humanity for millenia are now being eradicated

antibiotic resistant diseases threaten to come back in droves, climate change is definitely gonna contribute more to this as the years go by.

- even baldness is now being fixed and reversing cognitive decline is starting to become possible

lol, to all my bald brethren and sisters, have pride in your condition and accept yourself for the uniqueness you have, i love you all.

I could go on and on, but I think that's enough. If you are not convinced, then you are a part of the problem.

in case you haven't noticed, we are all part of the problem, if you live in the global north where most of the developed countries reside you'll understand in time our industrialization has meant wonders for the human species(mostly a portion of it in one blip of history) but horrors for the environment and the biosphere we reside in, if you want to convince yourself our path for a better future still exists i won't stop you, but please do not point fingers or kill the messenger.

Mythofprogress, you've disagreed or at least refused to agree with every single point he brought up. You seem to believe that things are getting worse in every way, which is just as unlikely as a belief system that says everything is getting better. Do you acknowledge that your own way of thinking is biased?

[R8Z]

We have a saying for these times of gloom and doom: "Enquanto uns choram, outros vendem lenços"

So capitalists.... capitalize? wow, such brilliance, suppose you're gonna tell me pulling myself up by my bootstraps is the next best thing to do? am i right or am i right?

Exactly. Who are you expecting to fix your misery for you? Me? Society?

IMO unless one can fix their own life they shouldn't have a saying how a civilization should be arranged. Start small, things will be more approachable. Non-ironically: clean your room.

Civilization isn't collapsing, your view of it is... fix it if you can.

I've shared the indexes so that you can see that while some are in misery, some are thriving; most are average. For someone with an average g-factor living in a developed world this is certainly a choice, although a long-term one.