1.5 or 2% a year (every year on average) is exponential, but not very rapid to our current human sense of time. That's what I mean. I wrote about it in the main Singularity thread before. The Singularity is when 300 years of change is compressed to 30 years. It's not a singularity when 300 years of change happens in 300 years.firestar464 wrote: ↑Wed Mar 13, 2024 2:32 am It's also strange that you're saying there won't be a technological singularity. Unless something drastically disrupts the current rate of progress, we'll continue accelerating exponentially.
The Y2K Trap
Re: The Y2K Trap
Global economy doubles in product every 15-20 years. Computer performance at a constant price doubles nowadays every 4 years on average. Livestock-as-food will globally stop being a thing by ~2050 (precision fermentation and more). Human stupidity, pride and depravity are the biggest problems of our world.
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firestar464
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Re: The Y2K Trap
Maybe it isn't strictly exponential, but it sure does feel like it. We are accelerating, and at this point I don't think it makes sense to say that we're advancing 1 year per every expected year of advancement. It's definitely much higher than that.
