My random thoughts

[funkervogt]

Think of all the fun you could have if you had an implant that could stimulate every part of your brain, and you laid down and set it to "Random."

[Powers]

Think of all the fun you could have if you had an implant that could stimulate every part of your brain, and you laid down and set it to "Random."

Wouldn't that be like a seizure?

[funkervogt]

Declaring when the first machine achieves artificial general intelligence might be impossible given that we lack a clear, detailed definition of what "general" intelligence is. Even within our own species, there's a strong argument to be made that people with severe mental deficits, either from birth or as a result of injury, lack general intelligence. The existence of "borderline" people who are slightly smarter and more capable than that, but also unable to grasp simple concepts, muddy the waters further.

We think of general intelligence as a discrete quality--either you have it or you don't--but I think it actually exists on a broader continuum of intelligence. There is continuity between insects, lizards, rats, dogs, chimps, and humans. Between chimps and humans are humans with cognitive defects. Extinct hominid species like Homo erectus fit in that niche as well.

This means that the dawn of AGI won't be a singular event. Rather, it will be spread out over a period of several years, as successive machines are better than the last at passing batteries of tests of specific cognitive skills. GPT-20 will inarguably have general intelligence and will be at least as smart as humans at everything, but as we go backwards in the lineage to examine GPT-19, -18, -17 and so on, the consensus will dwindle.

[funkervogt]

Ironically, illegal immigrants will have more job security in America than the average citizen. This is because 1) the hands-on jobs that the former dominate, like construction and trades, will be harder and slower to automate than "information jobs" like writing memos, doing legal research, and even doing some high-level jobs like medical image interpretation, and 2) they are more willing than most American citizens to switch jobs as needed and to take any job that is available, which is a valuable trait in a world where machines will be quickly taking over jobs, in an unpredictable order.

[funkervogt]

Ironically, illegal immigrants will have more job security in America than the average citizen. This is because 1) the hands-on jobs that the former dominate, like construction and trades, will be harder and slower to automate than "information jobs" like writing memos, doing legal research, and even doing some high-level jobs like medical image interpretation, and 2) they are more willing than most American citizens to switch jobs as needed and to take any job that is available, which is a valuable trait in a world where machines will be quickly taking over jobs, in an unpredictable order.

Britain's Department of Education just released a report estimating the threat automation poses to different types of jobs, and it accords with my own prediction.
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.u ... aining.pdf

If you want job security, become a pro athlete, or do something involving hands-on labor.

Zoomers who have been raised to expect their humanities college degree to lead to a cushy, secure office job are in for a brutal reality check. I wonder if they will actually turn against immigrants for economic reasons.

[Powers]

Ironically, illegal immigrants will have more job security in America than the average citizen. This is because 1) the hands-on jobs that the former dominate, like construction and trades, will be harder and slower to automate than "information jobs" like writing memos, doing legal research, and even doing some high-level jobs like medical image interpretation, and 2) they are more willing than most American citizens to switch jobs as needed and to take any job that is available, which is a valuable trait in a world where machines will be quickly taking over jobs, in an unpredictable order.

Britain's Department of Education just released a report estimating the threat automation poses to different types of jobs, and it accords with my own prediction.
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.u ... aining.pdf

If you want job security, become a pro athlete, or do something involving hands-on labor.

Zoomers who have been raised to expect their humanities college degree to lead to a cushy, secure office job are in for a brutal reality check. I wonder if they will actually turn against immigrants for economic reasons.

Learn a trade?

[funkervogt]

This video, "The Unintended Consequences of Artificial Intelligence," predicts that there will be "artificial actors" who are composites of traits from human actors, optimized for specific character roles.



It raises a good point: Machines are already super strong, and it's widely accepted they will also be super smart someday, so why not also assume they will be superior to humans in the domains of personality? Super noble, super sexy, super empathetic, super courageous, super funny, super charismatic? They'll be more interesting and desirable than fellow humans, and will make for better friends, lovers, leaders, and celebrities.

Those invented AI characters might be so appealing that we eventually transplant them into android bodies so they can walk among us.

[funkervogt]

The movie A.I. came out in 2001. Recall this scene where the protagonist talks to "Dr. Know" to find information.



"In this day and age, David, nothing costs more than information."

When I saw it in theaters, I accepted it, but within a few years, thanks to the rise of Google, I came to think the scene was painfully dated. A wealth of information was free on the internet to anyone who wanted it.

Now, however, I see how more advanced technology like deepfake photos and videos, politically biased chatbots, and narrow AIs that can do things like write reviews or even Wikipedia entries is undermining the integrity and reliability of the internet's contents. For that reason, I think the notion of having to pay money to access information that has been vetted and determined to be true will return in the near future. At least in America, our grip on what is true and what is false is weaker than it has been in my lifetime, the entire mainstream media has been captured by the ad revenue profit model and by biased elites with their own agendas, and we've probably already gotten to the point where we need average people to routinely pay money to something like Dr. Know to get a grip on reality.

[funkervogt]

The awful truth about androids is you could never trust them. One could earn your trust, embrace you, then crush the base of your skull like Julia in Hellraiser 2.

[funkervogt]

A human like skin that could grip onto you and disguise you as someone else could be possible with future technology. It could even have its own intelligence.