My random thoughts

Anything that doesn't quite fit in elsewhere...
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funkervogt
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Re: My random thoughts

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funkervogt wrote: Tue Jun 29, 2021 11:05 pm Once machines have mastered the ability to mimic human speech, it will revolutionize the audiobook industry. Any amateur could feed the text of a book into a computer program that would spit out an audiobook version, complete with different voices for different characters and the narrator, that matched their age, sex, race, and other characteristics. It would also be easy to add sound effects.

The age of "radio plays" would return, but with higher production standards and for a much greater variety of stories.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Radio_drama
"GauGAN AI" brings us a step closer to my prediction coming true.
https://blogs.nvidia.com/blog/2021/11/2 ... -art-demo/
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funkervogt
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Re: My random thoughts

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One benefit of automating restaurants is nothing will be closed on holidays. I'm on the road to a relative's house for Thanksgiving, and was barely able to find a place to get lunch.

Come to think of it, robotic restaurants would probably stay open 24/7/365. You could eat in the middle of the night if you wanted.
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funkervogt
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Re: My random thoughts

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Until we get Star Trek-level medical technology, we will probably never eradicate COVID-19, and it will persist as an endemic disease, and will in many ways be like the yearly flu. It will periodically flare up, perhaps turbocharged by mutations, forcing us to endure more vaccinations and perhaps even more lockdowns.

I can imagine something similar happening with a future AGI. Either by its own hand or thanks to human help, at some point, an AGI will escape from its server at Google HQ or in the basement of the NSA building and go into the internet. Once there, connected to billions of computing devices across the planet, it will have access to so many hiding places that it will be impossible for us to find every copy it makes of itself.

Even if the AGI fails in its initial attempt to take over the world or to exterminate humanity, it will be able to retreat into countless dark corners of the internet to rebuild its strength or hatch new plans given whatever level of resources it had. Who knows, it might even evolve to be friendly.
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funkervogt
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Re: My random thoughts

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7.9 billion humans are alive today, but anywhere from 50 to 110 billion humans have been born since the beginning of our species to the present, meaning the dead vastly outnumber the living.

https://www.haaretz.com/us-news/.premiu ... -1.6550893

Once medical immortality is here, there's a chance that the balance could flip, and the living population of humans will outnumber all those who had lived and died.
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wjfox
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Re: My random thoughts

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funkervogt wrote: Mon Nov 29, 2021 10:58 pm
there's a chance that the balance could flip, and the living population of humans will outnumber all those who had lived and died.

How long would that take, though? I'm guessing a verrrrrrrry long time. Hundreds of thousands of years, millions even?

Fertility rates are trending towards zero.
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funkervogt
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Re: My random thoughts

Post by funkervogt »

wjfox wrote: Tue Nov 30, 2021 1:30 pm
funkervogt wrote: Mon Nov 29, 2021 10:58 pm
there's a chance that the balance could flip, and the living population of humans will outnumber all those who had lived and died.

How long would that take, though? I'm guessing a verrrrrrrry long time. Hundreds of thousands of years, millions even?

Fertility rates are trending towards zero.
Forever is a very long time, and on a long enough timeline, most people will have at least one child.
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BaobabScion
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Re: My random thoughts

Post by BaobabScion »

funkervogt wrote: Tue Nov 30, 2021 4:10 pm
wjfox wrote: Tue Nov 30, 2021 1:30 pm
funkervogt wrote: Mon Nov 29, 2021 10:58 pm
there's a chance that the balance could flip, and the living population of humans will outnumber all those who had lived and died.

How long would that take, though? I'm guessing a verrrrrrrry long time. Hundreds of thousands of years, millions even?

Fertility rates are trending towards zero.
Forever is a very long time, and on a long enough timeline, most people will have at least one child.
Perhaps, there might be a far-off future in which the current population of that day was equal to or exceeding the amount of humans who've lived and died up until NOW, but it's mathematically impossible for that population to equal or exceed all those who had lived and died up until that future point.
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funkervogt
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Re: My random thoughts

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BaobabScion wrote: Tue Nov 30, 2021 6:57 pm
funkervogt wrote: Tue Nov 30, 2021 4:10 pm
wjfox wrote: Tue Nov 30, 2021 1:30 pm


How long would that take, though? I'm guessing a verrrrrrrry long time. Hundreds of thousands of years, millions even?

Fertility rates are trending towards zero.
Forever is a very long time, and on a long enough timeline, most people will have at least one child.
Perhaps, there might be a far-off future in which the current population of that day was equal to or exceeding the amount of humans who've lived and died up until NOW, but it's mathematically impossible for that population to equal or exceed all those who had lived and died up until that future point.
Let me rephrase my idea: I think it is possible that, in the distant future, the number of living humans will exceed the number of humans who have lived AND died up to that point.
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BaobabScion
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Re: My random thoughts

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funkervogt wrote: Tue Nov 30, 2021 10:35 pm
BaobabScion wrote: Tue Nov 30, 2021 6:57 pm
funkervogt wrote: Tue Nov 30, 2021 4:10 pm
Forever is a very long time, and on a long enough timeline, most people will have at least one child.
Perhaps, there might be a far-off future in which the current population of that day was equal to or exceeding the amount of humans who've lived and died up until NOW, but it's mathematically impossible for that population to equal or exceed all those who had lived and died up until that future point.
Let me rephrase my idea: I think it is possible that, in the distant future, the number of living humans will exceed the number of humans who have lived AND died up to that point.
Which point? If you're referring to that future point, then what I'm saying is that that's impossible.
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funkervogt
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Re: My random thoughts

Post by funkervogt »

BaobabScion wrote: Tue Nov 30, 2021 11:10 pm
funkervogt wrote: Tue Nov 30, 2021 10:35 pm
BaobabScion wrote: Tue Nov 30, 2021 6:57 pm

Perhaps, there might be a far-off future in which the current population of that day was equal to or exceeding the amount of humans who've lived and died up until NOW, but it's mathematically impossible for that population to equal or exceed all those who had lived and died up until that future point.
Let me rephrase my idea: I think it is possible that, in the distant future, the number of living humans will exceed the number of humans who have lived AND died up to that point.
Which point? If you're referring to that future point, then what I'm saying is that that's impossible.
Why is it impossible?
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