Is the singularity community entering a hype cycle? If so I think that is a good thing.

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Ozzie guy
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Is the singularity community entering a hype cycle? If so I think that is a good thing.

Post by Ozzie guy »

I am seeing people post things like "there is a 50% chance GPT-4 is super human AI" or "I fully expect super human level AI in 2021-2022.

Admittedly the predictions I follow are probably optimistic but they are certainly grounded in reality and in the past I expected proto AGI within a year probably due to missinterpreting what someone said.

I think moving towards hype on the hype cycle is good as it means we are actually on the cycle. Gartner's hype cycle goes from hype to dissolutionment then actual results.

Maybe these GPT-4 super AI predictions will actually turn out to be true and my mind can't accept the speed of reality.

I am writing this on my cracked phone screen on the tram so sorry for any particularly bad spelling and grammar issues.
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R8Z
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Re: Is the singularity community entering a hype cycle? If so I think that is a good thing.

Post by R8Z »

Hey, just reminding that you've been an optimistic in the past as you can see by your own post in here. Sooner or later we will have a new release as you've said and we will be back on the hype train.
And, as always, bye bye.
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Ozzie guy
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Re: Is the singularity community entering a hype cycle? If so I think that is a good thing.

Post by Ozzie guy »

R8Z wrote: Fri Jan 28, 2022 3:32 am Hey, just reminding that you've been an optimistic in the past as you can see by your own post in here. Sooner or later we will have a new release as you've said and we will be back on the hype train.
Thanks for lifting me up, I don't think I am feeling down, I am just trying to be more realistic for my own sake.
Tadasuke
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Re: Is the singularity community entering a hype cycle? If so I think that is a good thing.

Post by Tadasuke »

They are on a hype cycle, so they're going to be disillusioned in the future. Sometimes hype cycles happen more than once. Singularity community is too optimistic on their timing. There is no way we will see superintelligence during this decade. GPT-3 is still not really intelligent, it just fakes intelligence. GPT-4 will be better, for sure, but still far from true superintelligence. There is an exponential trend going on with AI development, but it's not going to revolutionize the world as quickly as they think. Humanity has only recently crossed 50% telephone coverage, even though the first telephone conversation happened in 1876. Similarly, we've only recently crossed 50% flush toilets coverage, even though flush toilet was invented in 1775. Mobile phones are a 1970s invention and look at how long it took for 50% of all people to have a mobile phone. Most people in the world still don't have their own car. Most people in the world still don't have their own private laptop (they share it with others). Even when Tesla Bot is ready for mass production, it will take decades for it to be produced in billions (assuming there won't be any competition, which is unlikely). Moon landing was in the 1969 and there's still no Moon base. People in 1970 would say that by now there would be Moon and Mars settlements. People in the year 1900 were also overly optimistic about the future and we all know what was awaiting them.

From what I see, PC CPU and GPU speed does double every four years. See GTX 1070 vs RTX 3070 or i7-8700K vs i7-12700K. Internet bandwith is constantly going up exponentially. Number of electric cars on roads is going up exponentially. Solar panels combined capacity is growing exponentially. Price of cultured meat is dropping exponentially. Kilometers of roads and railway, quantity of toilets, quantity of washing machines, quantity of refrigerators, quantity of smart TVs, quantity of skyscrapers, quantity of hospitals - it's all on the rise. But I don't see Singularity happening by 2037 or so. This is going too far. By 2045 the world will be different, and better, but no Singularity yet.
Global economy doubles in product every 15-20 years. Computer performance at a constant price doubles nowadays every 4 years on average. Livestock-as-food will globally stop being a thing by ~2050 (precision fermentation and more). Human stupidity, pride and depravity are the biggest problems of our world.
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