David Mitchel has a bit in an episode of 'would I lie to you', where he says "in order to save the lives of reckless children, warnings are calibrated for their safety. The result of which is the timorous live in a state of perpetual terror."
It's a funny bit, but it also reminds me of of a thought I have regularly about... well most things. I've never smoked, don't drink, watch my refined carb intake with a mind toward familial history of diabetes, I try and keep my brain active, don't consume caffine, try to get 7-8 hours sleep each night. Avoid skin damage from the sun etc etc.
I do similar things for other areas of my life besides health.
And yet there are people I know in their 80s who smoked for the last 60 years, drink a couple cups of wine a night, love pasta and bread, worked high stress jobs, had kids, got by on 5-6 hours of sleep a night by drinking 4-5 cups of coffee a day. used to tan in the summers intentionally.
It might just be statistical, or it could be genetics. But honestly there is a part of me that thinks this is kind of like that narrative of your individual carbon foot print, where bringing your own canvas bag instead of using plastic bags in the shops, like you are saving the planet some how, when in fact the canvas bag is technically worse than a plastic one.
It seems almost comical how some of us have created rituals and lifestyles around better living choices. But we really don't have as much control over it all as we think we will. It's all a big game of survivorship bias.
I've watched a man in his late 50s eat a massive beef patty on a bun with 1/4 cup melted cheese and 5 strips of thick bacon, having his 7 cup of coffee and with chemical sweeteners before going out for a cigarette break where he's going through his pack for the day. and you know what, based on his peers and his family, this guy will likely make it into his 70s. Barring some accident. While odds are good that a random sampling of gym goers and people who manage their diets carefully will likely die within a year or two of this guy in age range.
there's nothing you can do that we know of that will assure you don't end up with parkinsons or ALS. it a weird crap shoot to find out who ends up with a cancer, and who survives treatment without it having shortened their lives by some unknown amount of time. And all the little things you do to avoid increasing your risk of colon cancer might do nothing to the fact that it's the heart attack that had your name on it all along.
you're chances at a successful marriage, healthy successful kids, retirement investing. safe stable housing... or divorced twice childless, broke at 57, living with roommates and no chance to ever retire... may not be as up to you as you think.
it just all seems so weird, that you can do nothing wrong and yet somebody else does all the wrong things and you could the odds can play out any which way regardless.
