Personal chat thread

Anything that doesn't quite fit in elsewhere...
User avatar
Ozzie guy
Posts: 486
Joined: Sun May 16, 2021 4:40 pm

Re: Personal chat thread

Post by Ozzie guy »

I kind of feel like I have won at life.

To me life has almost turned into a video game of surviving until the singularity. I am confident I will be able to work at my full time job until at least 2025 when we have proto AGI and then be close to real AGI I am not sure what I will do when I reach 2025.
User avatar
R8Z
Posts: 267
Joined: Mon Jun 28, 2021 6:25 pm
Location: Remote

Re: Personal chat thread

Post by R8Z »

Ozzie guy wrote: Wed Apr 20, 2022 10:26 pm I kind of feel like I have won at life.

To me life has almost turned into a video game of surviving until the singularity. I am confident I will be able to work at my full time job until at least 2025 when we have proto AGI and then be close to real AGI I am not sure what I will do when I reach 2025.
I am glad you found comfort in life. Life is indeed like a game where if we focus on the right set of skills different opportunities and benefits come along with them. Charisma/Speech is probably the most rewarding one.
And, as always, bye bye.
Tadasuke
Posts: 510
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2021 3:15 pm
Location: Europe

Re: Personal chat thread

Post by Tadasuke »

I feel terrible, because I feel like almost nothing is under my control. Things I want to change are things I can't change. I'm not sure if future will change this, I hope that yes. It's like everyday is "accept that the world is shit and somehow live despite it, even if you hate every day".

Proto AGI may happen around 2025, but it doesn't mean that the world of 2035 will be a happy world. And remember, modern flush toilet was first created in 1775 (nearly 250 years ago!) by Alexander Cumming, but in 2022 there are still billions of people (1 in 4 people) with no immediate access to flush toilets. Just because a technology is created, doesn't mean that everyone will benefit from it soon after. And please don't bring up smartphones. Mobile phones are a 1970s invention and are taking about 50 years to reach nearly everyone.
Global economy doubles in product every 15-20 years. Computer performance at a constant price doubles nowadays every 4 years on average. Livestock-as-food will globally stop being a thing by ~2050 (precision fermentation and more). Human stupidity, pride and depravity are the biggest problems of our world.
Tadasuke
Posts: 510
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2021 3:15 pm
Location: Europe

Re: Personal chat thread

Post by Tadasuke »

I think I'm abnormal, because I'm used to imagining the future of everything. From a very young age I used to think how things are going to change and evolve in 5, 10, 15, 20, 25 years. And I'm always let down by reality. I think how things should go according to my ideas, but they don't go like that. I'm always negatively surprised.

As a recent example, I bought Radeon 480 8GB in 2016 for $230 and thought "in 2 years I'm going to buy another $230 card that will be twice as fast, with twice the memory and so on every 2 years". I made predictions, graphs, thought about what products will happen, how they will look like, what will be their names, etc. And here I am in 2022 after ordering Radeon 6700 XT for $530. The card doesn't have even twice the memory, but it costs 130% more. However, compared to recent prices of $1000, this doesn't look bad. 😕

As for smartphones, I thought that by 2015 we would use pocket PCs, palmtops. Something like on this photo:
Image
I also thought that in 2020 we would very often use voice to control our computers. I wrote some predictions down on my computer. It all seemed logical, rational, sensible and good. Too bad it turned false. I'm writing this on a keyboard instead of with my voice. 😒
Global economy doubles in product every 15-20 years. Computer performance at a constant price doubles nowadays every 4 years on average. Livestock-as-food will globally stop being a thing by ~2050 (precision fermentation and more). Human stupidity, pride and depravity are the biggest problems of our world.
Tadasuke
Posts: 510
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2021 3:15 pm
Location: Europe

Re: Personal chat thread

Post by Tadasuke »

This is my old note about 2015:

"In the year 2015 people usually carry around 3 computers:
*one small mobile phone with weeks of battery life, able to make phone connections, send SMS and use a flashlight
*one larger pocket PC with days of battery life, able to run Linux, typically featuring an 8" FHD screen, keyboard, 8 core 3 GHz CPU, ~1 teraflops GPU and 8 GB of RAM, can do voice recognition and videocalls and you can work on it, is able to run a few years old PC games and do emulation
*one small computerized watch with weeks of battery life, able to track vital signs of a person and inform of any irregularities, can also display SMS messages"

I still think this would had been better than reality.
Global economy doubles in product every 15-20 years. Computer performance at a constant price doubles nowadays every 4 years on average. Livestock-as-food will globally stop being a thing by ~2050 (precision fermentation and more). Human stupidity, pride and depravity are the biggest problems of our world.
User avatar
Revolutionary Moderate
Posts: 36
Joined: Sun May 16, 2021 8:18 pm
Location: Massachusetts, United States of America

Re: Personal chat thread

Post by Revolutionary Moderate »

I don't drink alcohol because I find the taste of it to be very bitter, but the rest of my family does drink alcohol, which is interesting.
The Potato Praiser
User avatar
wjfox
Site Admin
Posts: 8730
Joined: Sat May 15, 2021 6:09 pm
Location: London, UK
Contact:

Re: Personal chat thread

Post by wjfox »

I bought a night vision camera, to record myself sleeping. I want to figure out what's been causing my insomnia.

Last night, a helicopter flew over at 3.25am, which is precisely when I woke up.

It might have been a coincidence though, so I'm going to repeat these recordings for the next few days.
User avatar
Yuli Ban
Posts: 4631
Joined: Sun May 16, 2021 4:44 pm

Re: Personal chat thread

Post by Yuli Ban »

Definitely keep doing that, but it could very well be that you're a light sleeper.
And remember my friend, future events such as these will affect you in the future
User avatar
Yuli Ban
Posts: 4631
Joined: Sun May 16, 2021 4:44 pm

Re: Personal chat thread

Post by Yuli Ban »

A small few thoughts on proto-AGI:

To say we are close is ludicrously understating the implications. I've been looking into some of the latest releases, and Flamingo in particular is certainly unusually good. Of course, it still falls short of my expectations, but the honest fact of the matter is that to get from where we are to proto-AGI is quite literally just a matter of scale, compute, and training.
And I have reason to believe that someone may have already done it...
And remember my friend, future events such as these will affect you in the future
Tadasuke
Posts: 510
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2021 3:15 pm
Location: Europe

Re: Personal chat thread

Post by Tadasuke »

During my 11 years of depression, for the first 5 years I used to be very hard on myself and dumped all responsibility on myself. For example if my smartphone was slow and freezed sometimes, I would consider it my fault for not taking proper care of it (ROM, kernel, settings, cleaning). I hated myself for being bad at sports, video games, socializing and learning. I thought that my life is shit, because I am shit. I went to a gym regularly etc.

But in 2016 that changed to "now I think that the universe is shit and it's all not my fault, I tried and I failed, because of the universe". Smartphone was working poorly, because it was poorly designed, not because of my failings. I was super disappointed in the year 2016, when I thought that things would be rosy and awesome, but they were not. Nothing positive predicted for 2016 came to pass, both my and others predictions. The reality was crushingly horrifying. I hated it and I hate it now. I changed my whole view and narrative from "everything's my fault" to "everything's this universe's fault and I'm am just a victim". I'm still depressed, of course, nothing improved in that. However, Android smartphones don't work so badly anymore, they've greatly improved over the years. Anyhow, my predictions for 2015 and 2020 were completely off the mark. Even my 2015 predictions were more optimistic than our 2022 reality. I was like "in the second decade of this century everything will start to change". I was both thinking that and saying that.

At least my new, not cheap but also not that expensive Radeon 6700 XT is in-line with how I imagined my graphics card in 2015. Of course it's far from what I expected my 2020 GPU to be like. And also 1 TW from solar is in-line with my 2020 prediction. Falcon 9 doing routine reusable missions to the orbit is also in-line with my 2015 prediction. But why don't we have actually useful personal in-computer intelligent assistants?
Global economy doubles in product every 15-20 years. Computer performance at a constant price doubles nowadays every 4 years on average. Livestock-as-food will globally stop being a thing by ~2050 (precision fermentation and more). Human stupidity, pride and depravity are the biggest problems of our world.
Post Reply