Elections and Opinion Polls - general thread

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Elections and Opinion Polls - general thread

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Pretty much talk about elections that don't go in any other thread...Such as the 2022 midterm or 2024 general election that currently have threads. Examples of what goes here can be the 2021 off year elections or elections in other countries.

McAuliffe and Youngkin are in a dead heat with one week to Virginia governor election, poll shows
Source: USA Today
Virginia's bellwether race for governor remains close in the final stretch of a campaign that is testing President Joe Biden’s sagging approval numbers going into the 2022 midterms.

Democrat Terry McAuliffe and Republican Glenn Youngkin are tied at roughly 45% each, according to a USA TODAY/Suffolk University Poll released Tuesday. But roughly 5% of likely voters say they are still undecided a week before the Nov. 2 vote.

David Paleologos, director of Suffolk University Political Research Center, said the race is simply a "dead heat" and will boil down to which party can get out its voters.

"It's down to turnout," Paleologos said.

Read more: https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/pol ... 172824001/
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Fox News Poll: Youngkin pulls ahead of McAuliffe among Virginia likely voters [Youngkin up by eight]
Fox News ^ | 10/28/2021 | Dana Blanton
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/youngk ... nia-voters
McAuliffe receives 45 percent to Youngkin’s 53 percent in a new Fox News survey of Virginia likely voters. Youngkin’s eight-point advantage is outside the poll’s margin of sampling error.

That’s a big shift from two weeks ago, when McAuliffe was ahead by five, 51-46 percent.
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Echelon Insights
@EchelonInsights
New #VAGOV poll from Echelon: Glenn Youngkin holds a 3 point edge in the likely electorate, and a similar advantage among all voters.

GOV:
@GlennYoungkin 49
@TerryMcAuliffe 46

LG:
@WinsomeSears 48
@HalaAyala 46

AG:
@JasonMiyaresVA 48
@MarkHerringVA 47

https://echeloninsights.com/in-the-news/va
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Eric Adams is elected mayor of New York City.
Source: New York Times

Eric Adams, a former New York City police captain whose attention-grabbing persona and keen focus on racial justice fueled a decades-long career in public life, was elected on Tuesday as the 110th mayor of New York, and the second Black mayor in the city’s history.

The Associated Press called Mr. Adams’s victory 10 minutes after the polls closed at 9 p.m.
Read more: https://www.nytimes.com/live/2021/11/02 ... -york-city
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Miami Mayor Francis Suarez reelected in a landslide victory
Source: Miami Herald
Miami Mayor Francis Suarez won reelection Tuesday night, handily defeating lesser-known opponents to earn his second four-year term as the figurehead of South Florida’s most populous city.

Before Election Day, Suarez captured about 79% of the mail ballots and early votes, building a giant lead before polls opened Tuesday. Suarez’s re-election was so anticipated that fans and supporters barely noticed when a big screen projecting results at his election party showed the mayor ahead of his second-place opponent by more than 13,000 votes.

With a such large lead, and a low Election Day turnout, by 7:30 p.m. Suarez had locked in a second term as Miami’s 34th mayor — the first to be born in the Magic City and son of the city’s first Cuban-born mayor, Xavier Suarez.
Read more at: https://www.miamiherald.com/news/politi ... rylink=cpy

Read more: https://www.miamiherald.com/news/politi ... 10071.html
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Ohio Democrat Shontel Brown wins House race for Fudge's seat
Source: Associated Press

By The Associated Press 11 minutes ago
COLUMBUS, Ohio (AP) — Democrat Shontel Brown won the Cleveland-area U.S. House seat formerly held by Housing Secretary Marcia Fudge in Tuesday’s special election.

Brown, 46, a Cuyahoga County Council member who also chairs the county Democratic Party, defeated Republican Laverne Gore, a business owner and activist, in the 11th Congressional District, a heavily Democratic area that stretches from Cleveland to Akron.

She fills the remainder of Fudge’s term, which runs until January 2023, facing reelection again next year under a congressional map that’s being redrawn to hold onto the seat.

A second special election is taking place in Ohio on Tuesday, this one for the open seat in the 15th Congressional District. Republican Mike Carey, a longtime coal lobbyist, and Democrat Allison Russo, a two-term state representative and public policy consultant, are competing to succeed Republican Rep. Steve Stivers, who resigned in April to become CEO of the Ohio Chamber of Commerce after a decade in Congress.
Read more: https://apnews.com/article/joe-biden-do ... 118a6e5135
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Republican Glenn Youngkin Wins Virginia Governor's Race
by Travis Waldron
November 3, 2021

https://www.huffpost.com/entry/glenn-yo ... d0bfc1eb74

Introduction:
(HuffPost) Glenn Youngkin, a career private equity executive running his first campaign, defeated former Gov. Terry McAuliffe (D) in Tuesday’s Virginia governor’s election, notching the first statewide victory for a Republican there since 2009 and dealing a major blow to the national Democratic Party. Vote tallies in the races for lieutenant governor and state attorney general suggest a GOP sweep for all three offices.

Youngkin branded himself early in the race as a moderate outsider, and targeted swing voters with ads focused on tax cuts, charter schools and raises for teachers and police officers.

But he and Virginia Republicans leaned in to the conservative culture war in the closing stages of the contest, staking the campaign on false claims that Democrats had helped spread the teaching of “critical race theory” throughout Virginia public schools, mischaracterizing the alleged sexual assault of a Virginia school student to stoke anti-trans hysteria, and peddling some of Donald Trump’s favorite lies about voter fraud and “election integrity.”

In the end, the effort to embrace the issues that would drive up turnout among conservatives while still pitching himself as something else to voters in the middle worked.

Democrats will lose their stranglehold on a state in which they have won four consecutive presidential contests and two straight gubernatorial races, and used their power to enact laws expanding health care, abortion access, protections for LGBTQ people and voting rights.
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Michelle Wu Elected Boston Mayor
by Kevin Robillard
November 2, 2021

https://www.huffpost.com/entry/progress ... 73574b4dee

Introduction:
(HuffPost) City Councilor Michelle Wu easily won the Boston mayor’s race on Tuesday night, making her the first woman and person of color to win a mayoral election in the city and putting a progressive voice in charge of the largest city in New England.

Wu will be the city’s first Asian-American to serve as the city’s mayor. She’ll replace Kim Janey, the first woman and Black person to serve as mayor, who took over the job earlier this year after Marty Walsh resigned to become Labor Secretary in President Joe Biden’s cabinet.

Wu easily defeated fellow City Councilor Annissa Essaibi George, the more moderate candidate in the contest, in the final round of voting.

While Boston has long served as an incubator of liberal politicians on the national level, its local politics has traditionally been more insular and transactional, a political paradise for back-slapping men at the heads of political machines. Wu, a policy wonk who was a Harvard Law student and political protege of Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.), is pushing to turn the city into a bastion of progressive policy.

While progressives have made key gains in the U.S. House, in state legislatures and in district attorneys’ offices around the country in recent years, they have won few races for executive positions. Wu’s tenure could serve as a policy blueprint and a political test for other left-wing candidates.
Image
Michelle Wu
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CBS News Projects New Jersey Governor Phil Murphy Wins Re-election
by Adam Brewster
November 4, 2021

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/phil-murph ... -governor/

Introducction:
(CBS) CBS News has projected that New Jersey Governor Phil Murphy will win a second term. He is the first Democratic governor to win reelection since 1977, but Murphy's thin margin of victory, currently about one point, in what was considered a safe blue state is raising red flags for Democrats around the country.

"I am humbled to be the first Democratic governor reelected in the great state of New Jersey since my dear friend, the late Governor Brendan Byrne did this in 1977," Murphy told supporters in Asbury Park on Wednesday night. "Thank you for putting your trust in our team for another four years. Thank you for saying we need to keep moving forward on a shared journey to a stronger and fairer New Jersey."

Murphy largely ran on his record for handling the COVID-19 pandemic and highlighted other first-term accomplishments, like raising the minimum wage, enacting a tax on wealthy New Jerseyans, expanding paid family leave benefits, increasing funding for public schools and providing more access to pre-K.

The slim margin highlights the continued divide over Murphy's handling of the pandemic and some of those first-term accomplishments that he highlighted throughout his campaign.

Jack Ciattarelli, meanwhile, largely focused his campaign on New Jersey's high taxes. Murphy has pledged to not raise taxes during his second term. But some Democrats have questioned whether Murphy did enough to paint a clear vision about what he wants to accomplish in his second term.
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This truck driver just took down New Jersey's most powerful lawmaker
Source: Politico

Durr, a truck driver for the furniture store Raymour & Flanigan, was declared the victor Thursday in a race against one of the most powerful people in New Jersey: State Senate President Steve Sweeney, a top officer in the international Ironworkers union whose influence rivals that of governors.

In a week filled with surprises beyond the razor-thin New Jersey governor’s race, the election in South Jersey’s 3rd Legislative District was the biggest shocker of all — and one with massive implications for the future of New Jersey politics. Sweeney, who’s led the state’s upper legislative chamber for 12 years, was talked up in Democratic circles as a likely 2025 candidate for governor. He had amassed significant power in Trenton, shrewdly cutting deals with former Republican Gov. Chris Christie and frequently standing in the way of Gov. Phil Murphy’s agenda.

Even Durr harbored doubts about his chances and wasn’t ready to declare victory in a Wednesday interview, telling POLITICO he was “walking on eggshells” until the results became official. State Republicans quickly jumped on victory — despite deploying no resources in the race.

“I kept telling myself and telling people I was going to do it, but in the back of my mind I was like, ‘You know, how am I going to beat the Senate president?” said Durr, who ran unsuccessfully for state Assembly in 2019 and has never held elected office.

Read more: https://www.politico.com/news/2021/11/0 ... ney-519502
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Keep Hope Alive: The Browning of America
by Abby Zimet
November 4, 2021

https://www.commondreams.org/further/20 ... ng-america

Extract:
(Common Dreams) Okay, so the effort to replace Minneapolis' brutish police department with a community-minded Department of Public Safety failed…in a taste of Raymond Carver's "small good" things…police reform measures passed in Austin and Cleveland; the re-election in Waterloo, Iowa of its first black mayor - despite the opposition of cranky back-the-blue retired cops mad the city was replacing their longtime, KKK-dragon-like emblem - and the election of its first majority black city council; and the election in three Michigan towns of their first Muslim and Arab-American mayors newly giving voice to their communities. In Dearborn Heights, which is about a third Arab-American, Mayor Bill Bazzi… became the first elected Muslim mayor after having been appointed when the former mayor died….In Hamtramck, Amer Ghalib, a health care worker and immigrant from Yemen who came here at 17, became both the town's first Muslim and Arab-American mayor and its first non-Polish mayor in 100 years when he crushed Mayor Karen Majewski with 68% of the vote; three Muslims were also newly elected to the city council, making it now entirely Muslim. In a town with a large population of Muslims from Yemen and Bangladesh who've long struggled to be heard, he was mobbed by jubilant supporters after his victory.

Finally, in Dearborn… Abdullah Hammoud became the first Muslim mayor in a city that's almost half Arab-American. His win was especially historic in light of the city's past: Known as the capital of Arab America, Dearborn boasts the country’s largest mosque, its first Arab-American museum, and its second largest Arab population after California; it's also infamous for its racist leaders. Its longest-serving mayor Orville Hubbard was nationally known for his racism, and the city's last mayor used to rage about "the Arab problem."…In a victory speech, …he (Hammond)…noted, "We never ran to be the first, we ran to be the best." “To the young girls and boys who have ever been ridiculed for their faith or ethnicity...to (our) elders and others who are humiliated for their broken English and yet still persist, today is proof that you are as American as anyone else," he declared. "We said that together we can (and) will bring change. Tonight, together, we did it."
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Below is an excellent summary of the Virginia governors race and its implications for the broader politics of this country. Even many who think of themselves as being on the far left fail to understand the basic points made by the author. I only quibble with how tough he is on Biden (read the conclusion in the linked article but not cited below), although I can understand the frustration on that point.


Split Identity Politics
by Jeffrey St. Clair
November 12, 2021

https://www.counterpunch.org/2021/11/12 ... -politics/

Introduction:
(Counterpunch) Here they come: James Carville, Paul Begala, Mark Penn, Andrew Stein, and the rest of the doddering pack of “New Democrats” from the Clinton era, exploiting the loss of their pal Terry McAuliffe in Virginia, to decry the alleged “wokist” takeover of the Democratic Party, “wokism” being the latest K Street slang to refer to any progressive policy that the US Chamber of Commerce finds objectionable.

I didn’t see any Democratic candidates seeking the endorsement of Ibram X. Kendi or campaigning on trans rights, black reparations or defunding the police. Certainly not Terry McAuliffe. McAuliffe was so “woke”; he regularly directed his limo driver to ferry him to the northern Virginia home of Bill Kristol to plot campaign strategy.

Yet, the refrain is always the same. The Democrats loss a narrow off-year election in a southern state because of their obsession “identity politics,” alienating that mythic demographic of white male “blue-collar” voters, even though increasingly most of the factory workers in Virginia these days are recent immigrants from Mexico and Central America toiling on the unforgiving killing floors of slaughterhouses and industrial chicken and hog confined feeding plants.

When Democratic Party savants say it’s time to get back to “economic issues,” what they mean is the economics of campaign contributions. The banal slogan “It’s the economy, stupid,” was never about addressing the crises afflicting the working class but about getting right with Wall Street. As the Clintons’ bagman, McAuliffe was the ideal candidate for the likes of Carville and Penn. McAuliffe knew were the money that lubricated the Democratic Party machinery came from and what kind of deference needed to be paid to make sure it kept flowing. He didn’t have to learn these lessons at a retreat. They came naturally to him. McAuliffe’s own politics have never strayed from the most austere prescripts of neoliberalism.

Race and gender are class issues, even if the cultural reactionaries that run the Democratic Party machine refuse to recognize it. There’s nothing more restrictive than attuning your political platform to an illusory “white working class.”
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Andre Dickens Wins Atlanta Mayor's Race
by Maureen Breslin
December 1, 2021

https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watc ... ayors-race

Introduction:
(The Hill) Andre Dickens (D) won the Atlanta mayoral runoff election on Tuesday, according to The Associated Press, defeating his opponent, Felicia Moore (D).

The 47-year-old mayor-elect's campaign focused on fighting crime in Atlanta, the AP noted, adding that Dickens said he would be more effective in bringing crime rates down than Moore and would address crime with affordable housing and opportunities for poorer Atlantans.

Dickens announced his victory on Twitter, saying he was "humbled" to have been chosen.

“We voted for progress and a problem solver, for a bridge builder, for transformation, and this work will start right now. We can’t wait any longer to address these issues,” Dickens said during his victory speech Tuesday, according to the AP.

Dickens also reportedly acknowledged Atlanta's problems, but said he believed in the city.
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InteractivePolls
@IAPolls2022
Biden Job Approval: Nevada
Approve 33%
Disapprove 59%

Approve/Disapprove (NV)
Dem: 71/17
GOP: 2/97
Indie: 18/73 (net: -55)
White: 28/65
Black: 58/26
Hispanic: 40/46

@Civiqs / 04/16/2022
https://civiqs.com/results/approve_pres ... ate=Nevada
12:52 PM · Apr 17, 2022
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Why Taiwan is 2024’s First Big Election to Watch
by Joshua Keating
January 6, 2024

Introduction:
(Vox) Even amid a historically packed global election calendar in 2024, next week’s presidential contest in Taiwan will be one of the most closely watched and significant. The political future of the island and its historically fraught relationship with China — by far the main issue for voters this year — will have consequences not just for Taiwan’s nearly 24 million people, but for global security and prosperity.

China views Taiwan as a rebellious province, rather than an independent country, and Beijing’s longstanding position is that the two should be reunified. Chinese President Xi Jinping recently described this reunification as a “historical inevitability” in his New Year’s address.

While China’s official position has been that this reunification — something Taiwanese voters overwhelmingly oppose — should be accomplished by peaceful means, it has not ruled out using force and has stepped up military and economic pressure on the island. This has alarmed governments and military leaders around the world, given the real possibility that a war over Taiwan could draw in other countries including the United States and devastate the global economy.

Underlining the stakes, a senior Chinese official warned Taiwanese voters this week to make the “correct” choice, describing the election as a decision between “peace and war, prosperity and decline.”

China on the ballot

The January 13 election pits current Vice President Lai Ching-te, also known as William Lai, of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) against Taipei Mayor Hou You-ih of the Kuomintang (KMT), as well as third-party candidate Ko Wen-je, of the Taiwan People’s Party (TPP).
Read more here: https://www.vox.com/authors/joshua-keating
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Predicting and Controlling Bad-actor AI Activity in a Year of Global Elections
January 23, 2024

Introduction:
(Eurekalert)More than 50 countries are set to hold national elections this year and analysts have long sounded the alarm on the threat of bad actors using artificial intelligence (AI) to disseminate and amplify disinformation during the election season across the globe.

Now, a new study led by researchers at the George Washington University predicts that daily, bad-actor AI activity is going to escalate by mid-2024, increasing the threat that it could affect election results. The research, published today in the journal PNAS Nexus, is the first quantitative scientific analysis that predicts how bad actors will misuse AI globally.

“Everybody is talking about the dangers of AI, but until our study there was no science of this threat,” Neil Johnson, lead study author and a professor of physics at GW, says. “You cannot win a battle without a deep understanding of the battlefield.”

The researchers say the study answers the what, where, and when AI will be used by bad actors globally, and how it can be controlled.
Read more concerning the findings of the study here: https://www.eurekalert.org/news-releases/1032173
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2024 Elections Around the World
by Koh Ewe
July 2, 2024

Introduction:
(Time) More than one billion people around the world have already voted in 2024—and there are many elections still to go in this history-making year.

Polls for national office have been—or will be—held in more than 60 countries (as well as the European Union), home to nearly half the people on earth.
And so far, a tsunami of change is sweeping ballot boxes worldwide.

But the tides are turning in different directions: elections in Europe have seen far-right parties make serious gains; meanwhile, South Korea’s main liberal opposition to the ruling conservative government earned a landslide victory in parliamentary elections, and Senegal’s delayed presidential vote was hailed by observers as a win for democracy after it elevated a relative outsider and anti-corruption candidate, bringing a surprise end to the decades-long domination of the country’s ruling coalition.

What’s clear is that people don’t want things to stay the same. Even in places where incumbent governments have retained power, they’ve done so with significantly less public support than before. In India, Prime Minister Narendra Modi was forced to form a coalition after his Bharatiya Janata Party failed to secure an outright majority in parliament for the first time in a decade. South Africa’s African National Congress also formed a coalition after losing its parliamentary majority for the first time since the end of apartheid. And in countries where meaningful opposition has been curbed by ruling elites, such as Russia or Bangladesh, many have opted to spoil their votes or boycott the polls as a form of protest.
The article includes a list of upcoming scheduled elections

Read more here: https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/2 ... be&ei=15
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