New predictions for the timeline

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wjfox
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New predictions for the timeline

Post by wjfox »

Here you can suggest ideas for new entries on our timeline, or changes to existing entries.

Any references or data/trends would be greatly appreciated.

Thanks! :)
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Re: New predictions for the timeline

Post by Set and Meet Goals »

2024 Proto AGI is created.

Yuli Ban confidently predicts proto AGI before the end of 2024, starspawn0 thinks this prediction is reasonable and it seems like much of the subreddit https://www.reddit.com/r/thisisthewayitwillbe/ also believes in the prediction.

Yuli's most recent definition of proto AGI on this forum is the following "A proto-AGI or a Zombie AGI is really an advanced conversation model that can convince people it's intelligent, with some skills in generating images and audio to boot. Imagine LaMDA fused with DALL-E and Jukebox. It's hard to say if it's a language model, an image generation model, or an audio synthesis model because it does all three and more. Heck, you could use it for arithmetic like a natural language calculator.

However, it's not quite generally capable in all fields— I wouldn't trust it with driving a car."


Having an actually existing AGI as a starting point to grow from is an absolutely insanely large development for humanity and especially for users on this forum.
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Re: New predictions for the timeline

Post by TrueAnimationFan »

What about New Horizons entering the Oort cloud by 2590?
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Re: New predictions for the timeline

Post by wjfox »

Set and Meet Goals wrote: Tue Jun 01, 2021 1:53 am 2024 Proto AGI is created.

Yuli Ban confidently predicts proto AGI before the end of 2024, starspawn0 thinks this prediction is reasonable and it seems like much of the subreddit https://www.reddit.com/r/thisisthewayitwillbe/ also believes in the prediction.

Yuli's most recent definition of proto AGI on this forum is the following "A proto-AGI or a Zombie AGI is really an advanced conversation model that can convince people it's intelligent, with some skills in generating images and audio to boot. Imagine LaMDA fused with DALL-E and Jukebox. It's hard to say if it's a language model, an image generation model, or an audio synthesis model because it does all three and more. Heck, you could use it for arithmetic like a natural language calculator.

However, it's not quite generally capable in all fields— I wouldn't trust it with driving a car."


Having an actually existing AGI as a starting point to grow from is an absolutely insanely large development for humanity and especially for users on this forum.

Depends how you define AGI, but I'm not convinced it will arrive that soon, despite the recent progress with GPT, etc. There's a big difference between natural language processing and a fully-fledged AGI that can navigate 3D environments, recognise and manipulate objects, etc.

TrueAnimationFan wrote: Fri Jun 04, 2021 12:55 am What about New Horizons entering the Oort cloud by 2590?
Yep, that's on my "To Do" list. :)
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Re: New predictions for the timeline

Post by wjfox »

Couple more ideas:

Early 2040s - Intercontinental passenger spaceships linking major cities in two hours
viewtopic.php?f=27&t=471

2070 – Completion of Denmark's Lynetteholm artificial island project
viewtopic.php?f=27&t=473
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Re: New predictions for the timeline

Post by wjfox »

Having updated the VR prediction for 2039 (now 2042), the next major entry I want to rewrite is 2045. Any ideas welcome.
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Re: New predictions for the timeline

Post by Time_Traveller »

wjfox wrote: Tue Jun 08, 2021 8:32 am Having updated the VR prediction for 2039 (now 2042), the next major entry I want to rewrite is 2045. Any ideas welcome.
Don't forget to add China's plan to achieve one-hour global arrival and flight-based ground-to-orbit and orbit-to-orbit space transportation by 2045. Originally revealed in a speech in 2020.

https://cntechpost.com/2020/09/18/china ... the-globe/
“People assume that time is a strict progression of cause to effect, but *actually* from a non-linear, non-subjective viewpoint - it's more like a big ball of wibbly wobbly... time-y wimey... stuff.” - Steven Moffat
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Re: New predictions for the timeline

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Re: New predictions for the timeline

Post by wjfox »

2043 – China has established its first Mars base

https://gizmodo.com/china-hopes-to-put- ... 1847163177

(note: this will require deletion of another prediction.)
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Re: New predictions for the timeline

Post by wjfox »

2057 – Smart clothing is a trillion dollar industry

^ Current prediction I'm working on.

It'll only account for about 15% of total worldwide clothing revenue, however, based on my extrapolations. So I think we'll have to wait many more decades before all clothing has embedded sensors/electronics. Even then, I think some people might choose to wear traditional clothing for personal, cultural or religious reasons, so perhaps we'll never actually reach 100%.
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