Ukraine War Watch Thread

[Lurking]

How Serious are Vladimir Putin’s Nuclear Threats?
March 1, 2022

https://indianexpress.com/article/expla ... t-7795715/

Conclusion:

(Deutsche Welle via Indian Express) (Marc) Finaud (head of the arms proliferation division at the Geneva Centre for Security Policy) makes the same point. The proliferation expert said he was glad to see that the US didn’t respond “tit-for-tat” by raising their alert level as well, but rather showed a “fairly moderate” reaction.

Behavior like this shows how to prevent further escalation, he said.

But at the same time, the use of nuclear weapons should not be written off as something that Putin is only threatening and would never do, Finaud cautions.

“We have seen a series of red lines being crossed by Putin within a few days. And every time we thought he would not go further,” Finaud said.

“We thought ‘oh, this is just another blow, but he will be rational because this could run against the national interests of Russia,’ Finaud said. “But every time he went further. So now it’s very difficult to imagine where he will stop.”

caltrek's comment: I think a lot will depend on circumstances. For example, if Russian forces were unable to take Kiev, the fallback option might be the destruction of that city. If nuclear weapons are used by Putin, I suspect it would be in such a limited way. That would leave it up to the West as to whether to retaliate and thus potentially escalate to a full- scale exchange. Some time ago (and not in this thread) Phoenix Ru kept mentioning the possibility, even the desire, for Russia to use nuclear weapons in such a limited way. He based his ideas partly on what he had read in the Russian media. So, apparently policy makers there have been thinking the unthinkable.

I could see it happening in a depopulated area with a tactical nuclear weapon

[Cyber_Rebel]

Today, I will remind them:

Why would Putin want to nuke Florida?



https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-43248794

President Putin has unveiled Russia's new stockpile of "invincible" nuclear weapons, with a video graphic appearing to show missiles raining on Florida.

But why would the Kremlin want to target the Sunshine State in the event of an atomic war?

Florida is home to tourist attractions such as Walt Disney World and the Everglades National Park.

But it also has high-profile targets including President Donald Trump's Mar-a-Lago resort.

A spokesman for the US Defence Department said the Pentagon was "not surprised" by Mr Putin's rhetoric.

"The American people should rest assured that we are fully prepared," said Dana White from the Pentagon, downplaying the Russian threat.

Starting to think the guy should've been taken out a while ago. I distinctly remember this topic being brought up on the old forum, and it was posted what Vladimir believes about tactile nukes and nuclear warfare in general, that the concept seemed to be a "winnable" one.

[caltrek]

Fascists. Every Russian, and every Russian apologist and detractor (welcoming back another certain user) who thinks this unilateral war is justified bears this kind of blood on their hands. These people will sit here and tell you this invasion is justified for this reason, and that reason. Fascists. Murderers. Nothing they say is of any value, they are snakes who should not be trusted. They do not argue in good faith. Both should be banned.

From a selfish perspective, I would not want to see such people banned. Whatever inconsistencies and false propaganda they may put forth, I would rather see what is said then have it banned. That is because it helps me to understand the situation better. Understanding your enemy can be useful in defeating such an enemy. Whether through persuasion or through other relatively less pleasant means.

Of course, in the case of this particular forum, it is probably all pretty much academic. Very few seem to be open to persuasion. That is why it is more a matter of satisfying a curiosity for me. At any rate, that certain user you refer to may not be returning, at least for a while. So, banning may not be needed for that reason as well. I am really not sure why the reluctance to return. Perhaps it is all the vitriol that you and others directed at him. Or perhaps it was my (and others) questioning and argumentation. Maybe a combination.

At any rate, it seems to be a symptom of our time. I previously wrote of this as being something that is developing in the culture of the United States. Now, I see it as perhaps more global than that. Everybody is retreating into their own comfortable information silo and no longer willing to engage with somebody who thinks about things in a significantly different way. To the extent that happens, Putin has won.

A counterpoint to that might go something like "yes, but how can you tolerate intolerance?"

In all honesty, I am not sure I have an answer to that.

[R8Z]

Fascists. Every Russian, and every Russian apologist and detractor (welcoming back another certain user) who thinks this unilateral war is justified bears this kind of blood on their hands. These people will sit here and tell you this invasion is justified for this reason, and that reason. Fascists. Murderers. Nothing they say is of any value, they are snakes who should not be trusted. They do not argue in good faith. Both should be banned.

From a selfish perspective, I would not want to see such people banned. Whatever inconsistencies and false propaganda they may put forth, I would rather see what is said then have it banned. That is because it helps me to understand the situation better. Understanding your enemy can be useful in defeating such an enemy. Whether through persuasion or through other relatively less pleasant means.

Of course, in the case of this particular forum, it is probably all pretty much academic. Very few seem to be open to persuasion. That is why it is more a matter of satisfying a curiosity for me. At any rate, that certain user you refer to may not be returning, at least for a while. So, banning may not be needed for that reason as well. I am really not sure why the reluctance to return. Perhaps it is all the vitriol that you and others directed at him. Or perhaps it was my (and others) questioning and argumentation. Maybe a combination.

At any rate, it seems to be a symptom of our time. I previously wrote of this as being something that is developing in the culture of the United States. Now, I see it as perhaps more global than that. Everybody is retreating into their own comfortable information silo and no longer willing to engage with somebody who thinks about things in a significantly different way. To the extent that happens, Putin has won.

A counterpoint to that might go something like "yes, but how can you tolerate intolerance?"

In all honesty, I am not sure I have an answer to that.

I am suspect to say as I firmly believe in the same things but this was an excellent response and world view.

The strong hand of moderators in internet communities is one of the very reasons we've been diving into this strongly divided society we're currently living through. The lack of tolerance or even a simple understanding of the other part quickly turns into dehumanizing-talk and name calling (as sometimes we all see in this so called "academic" forum). In my egoistic perspective the tolerance and debate we are allowed to have here also suits me good as most here oppose my world views and we engage in interesting but heated discussions throughout the forum. Just not on this one, I think: I believe I am also on the majority here as I am strongly anti-war and anti-intervention.

[andmar74]

It's just nonsense we can't do something about Ukraine. We are just going to let Putin butcher innocent people.

[andmar74]

Maybe NATO should impose a no-fly zone for Russians in Ukraine.

[Cyber_Rebel]

Maybe NATO should impose a no-fly zone for Russians in Ukraine.

Most understand this as a war declaration. I understand that you are fairly "close" so that conflict, so it appears more real for you already in that sense. But the bigger picture may mean many more lives at risk or lost because of it.

[caltrek]

Russia Faces Series of Heavy Sanctions; Expelled By FIFA, Barred From Using Apple/Google Pay
by Shiva Chaudhary
March 1, 2022

https://thelogicalindian.com/trending/r ... ay-34199
Introduction:

(Logical Indian) Russia launched a large-scale invasion of Ukraine on February 24 making it the largest conventional warfare operation in Europe since World War II. The attack has indeed brought hardships for citizens of both the nations and people residing there.

Even after repetitive warnings from the international community, Russian President Vladimir Putin is not ready to step back and continues aggression against Ukraine. As the war persists, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has pleaded for help from the international community. As a result, several international sports bodies and countries such as the Fédération Internationale de Football Association (FIFA), Union of European Football Associations (UEFA), Canada, the European Union, Taiwan, New Zealand, Japan, the United Kingdom, and the United States have unveiled a series of sanctions against Russia targeting banks, oil refineries, and military exports reported Al Jazeera.

Sports Isolation

In a joint statement on Monday, FIFA and UEFA announced that Russia has been expelled from the World Cup 2022 after being suspended from all international competitions "until further notice." Further, UEFA has ended its sponsorship with Russian energy giant Gazprom.

The decision comes after the International Olympic Committee (IOC) urged sports bodies to isolate Russian athletes and officials from international events. Restriction On Foreign Transitions As a result of heavy financial sanctions on Russia, thousand of its customers have been barred from using Apple pay, Google Pay, and other digital wallets. The international business of Russia's five largest banks, VTB Group, Sovcombank, Novikombank, Promsvyazbank, Otkritie, can not proceed normally.

caltrek’s comment: While Russophiles may complain of an anti-Russian bias in the article, it should also be noted the Logical Indian has been doing some fact checking in regards to some pro-Ukrainian and other propaganda pieces:

https://thelogicalindian.com/fact-check ... -war-34209
https://thelogicalindian.com/fact-check ... ing-34202
https://thelogicalindian.com/fact-check ... tary-34205

This last one I find interesting. While the former Miss Ukraine, Anastasiia Leena, has apparently not joined the Ukrainian military to fight against Russian forces as some have claimed, she did issue this statement:

"I AM NOT A MILITARY, JUST A HUMAN." She further wrote, "I am not a military, just a woman, just normal human. Just a person, like all people of my country. I am also a airsoft player for years. You can Google what #airsoft means. All pictures in my profile to inspire people. I had a normal life just on Wednesday, like millions people. I don't do any propaganda except showing that our woman of Ukraine – strong, confident and powerful. I appreciate all attention and support to my country, all people in Ukraine we fight every day against Russian aggression."

[andmar74]

Maybe NATO should impose a no-fly zone for Russians in Ukraine.

Most understand this as a war declaration. I understand that you are fairly "close" so that conflict, so it appears more real for you already in that sense. But the bigger picture may mean many more lives at risk or lost because of it.

I'm fairly close yes, but it's clear that this is too much. Because Putin has nuclear bombs, he can do what he wants?
Now, Belarus is also attacking Ukraine. How about NATO invading Belarus? That should be fine, it's not Russia.

[joe00uk]

Fascists. Every Russian, and every Russian apologist and detractor (welcoming back another certain user) who thinks this unilateral war is justified bears this kind of blood on their hands. These people will sit here and tell you this invasion is justified for this reason, and that reason. Fascists. Murderers. Nothing they say is of any value, they are snakes who should not be trusted. They do not argue in good faith. Both should be banned.

As you quoted my post, I'm going to assume you're including me in this. Why could you not have just read my whole post before freaking out like this? I literally said I was against the invasion. I guess I'm just different here because this isn't the only invasion I'm against? I'm not sure what you're getting at here. Do explain.

[wjfox]

[andmar74]

What if the Russians surround Kiev and let 2.5 million people starve to death? Are we just going to let that happen? Is this really how the human species is? Are we going back to the Siege of Leningrad?

[raklian]

What if the Russians surround Kiev and let 2.5 million people starve to death? Are we just going to let that happen? Is this really how the human species is? Are we going back to the Siege of Leningrad?

If they do, this information will reach the Russian population eventually. Putin won't last very long afterwards.

[joe00uk]

What if the Russians surround Kiev and let 2.5 million people starve to death? Are we just going to let that happen? Is this really how the human species is? Are we going back to the Siege of Leningrad?

In all likelihood, long before that point either Kiev will have surrendered or its defences will be too weak to resist the Russians.

[weatheriscool]

Russia has used vacuum bomb, says Ukraine envoy
17:44

Russia used a banned thermobaric weapon during fighting in Ukraine on Monday, the Ukrainian ambassador to the US told American lawmakers in a briefing.

"They used the vacuum bomb today, which is actually prohibited by the Geneva convention," Oksana Markarova told reporters after emerging from the congressional briefing. This claim has not been verified by the BBC.

Thermobaric weapons do not use conventional ammunition.

They are instead filled with a high-pressure explosive, and suck in oxygen from the surrounding environment to generate an extremely powerful explosion and pressure wave.

...

https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-europe-60542877

[wjfox]

[caltrek]

Ukraine Analysis
by James Dorsey
March 1, 2022

https://www.eurasiareview.com/01032022- ... -analysis/

Extract:

(The Eurasia Review) Mr. Putin has made no bones about the fact that he sees territories populated by Russian speakers and adherents of Russian culture as the determinants of Russia’s borders, not international law.

The Russian leader demonstrated in 2008, and since, his willingness to enforce his definition of Russia’s border with military might.
…
The United States and Europe responded by slapping Mr. Putin’s wrists. The sanctions imposed at the time did little to stop Mr. Putin from increasing his war chest or making the cost of continued pursuit of his strongman tactics too costly and risky.
…
…prominent BBC journalist Lyse Doucet, reporting from Kyiv, highlighted the fact that humans in distress are humans in distress irrespective of their ethnicity or religion.
…
“If anyone knows about the pain and hardship of living with war, it’s the people of Iraq, of Kurdistan. And if anyone knows what it’s like to live in a war that never seems to end, of living with powerful neighbours, and the importance of independent journalism, it is the Kurdish people,” Ms. Doucet said.

[weatheriscool]

Germany sends Tornado warplanes and maritime patrol aircraft to Baltic Sea area
Source: Reuters

2:07 PM EST

BERLIN, Feb 28 (Reuters) - Germany is sending Tornado warplanes and a maritime patrol aircraft on a reconnaissance mission to the Baltic Sea area, Germany's mission to NATO said on Twitter on Monday.

A spokesperson for the defence ministry in Berlin said she could not immediately give any details due to operational security concerns.

Earlier in the day, the German navy dispatched six additional warships, four of them to the Baltic Sea.

Read more: https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ge ... 022-02-28/

[weatheriscool]

Russia pummels Ukraine's No. 2 city and convoy nears Kyiv
Source: AP

By YURAS KARMANAU, JIM HEINTZ, VLADIMIR ISACHENKOV and DASHA LITVINOVA

KYIV, Ukraine (AP) — Russian shelling pounded civilian targets in Ukraine’s second-largest city again Tuesday and a 40-mile convoy of tanks and other vehicles threatened the capital — tactics Ukraine’s embattled president said were designed to force him into concessions in Europe’s largest ground war in generations.

With the Kremlin increasingly isolated by tough economic sanctions that have tanked the ruble currency, Russian troops attempted to advance on Ukraine’s two biggest cities. In strategic Kharkiv, an eastern city with a population of about 1.5 million, videos posted online showed explosions hitting the region’s Soviet-era administrative building and residential areas.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy called the attack on Kharkiv’s main square “frank, undisguised terror,” blaming a Russian missile and calling it a war crime. “Nobody will forgive. Nobody will forget. ... This is state terrorism of the Russian Federation.”

Throughout Ukraine, many civilians spent another night huddled in shelters, basements or corridors.

Read more: https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukrai ... d844b5ee2f

[Cyber_Rebel]

@andmar74

Even without nukes, a war with Russia is very destructive. I wish more could be done, too, and I know that's easy for me to say, being so far away from things.