Ukraine War Watch Thread

[andmar74]

Is the west sacrificing Ukraine?

https://edition.cnn.com/2022/07/21/opin ... index.html

It seems that increasingly these days, the United States is letting Ukraine fight, valiantly, but is it with one hand tied behind its back?

[caltrek]

Ukraine and Russia Sign On to Deal to Reopen Grain Export Ports as War Rages On
July 22, 2022

Introduction:

(Reuters via The Indian Express) Russia and Ukraine signed a landmark deal on Friday to reopen Ukrainian Black Sea ports for grain exports, raising hopes that an international food crisis aggravated by the Russian invasion can be eased.

The accord crowned two months of talks brokered by the United Nations and Turkey which U.N. Secretary General Antonio Guterres said were aimed at restoring Ukrainian grain exports while easing Russian grain and fertilizer shipments despite tough Western sanctions on Moscow.

Guterres said the deal, signed in Istanbul, opens the way to significant volumes of commercial food exports from three key Ukrainian ports – Odesa, Chernomorsk and Yuzhny.

“Today, there is a beacon on the Black Sea. A beacon of hope…, possibility…and relief in a world that needs it more than ever,” Guterres told the gathering.

But fighting raged on unabated in Ukraine’s east and, underlining the enmity and mistrust driving the worst conflict in Europe since World War Two, Russian and Ukrainian representatives declined to sit at the same table and avoided shaking hands at the ceremony. The display of the two countries’ flags was adjusted so that they were no longer next to one other.

Read more here: https://indianexpress.com/article/wor ... 8045568/

[weatheriscool]

Ukraine war: Explosions rock Ukrainian port hours after grain deal
Source: BBC

Several blasts hit the western city of Odessa early on Saturday morning. The cause of the explosions is unclear.

Under the terms of Friday's deal, Russia agreed not to target ports while grain shipments are in transit.

The UN had described the deal as "a beacon of hope" following months of conflict.

Oleksiy Honcharenko, a local MP, wrote on Telegram that there had been six explosions in the city and that its port had caught fire after the attack.

Read more: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-62276392

[Xyls]

Ukrainians advance towards Kherson

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2 ... dfbe2d7e20

Ukraine is confident that it will retake Kherson by September. The Russians are in an extremely poor position here. There are only two bridges crossing the Dniper river and Ukraine is consistently making them unusable with HIMAR systems to where the can't restock and reposition troops. There is a high likelihood that Russia will have to cede massive amounts of terrain or suffer massive losses to the Ukrainians here.

[Time_Traveller]

[ibm9000]

Ukraine is confident

Well, then, everything is good...

There are only two bridges

And, as everybody knows, the Russian engineers have no bridges at all, they never had...

consistently making them unusable

Like... everyday? That is a lot of ammo...

high likelihood that Russia will have to

This sounds like a fairy-tale too, let's see in... October.

or suffer massive losses

Not like the Ukrainians, they will suffer no casualties...


Confident language by a general is not usually regarded as evidence of competency. J. E. Johnston.

[ibm9000]

Ukraine’s Main Intelligence Directorate (GUR) released an urgent message on July 23 calling on civilians in occupied Enerhodar, Zaporizhia Oblast, and the surrounding areas to provide details on Russians and their movements in Enerhodar. The GUR report specifically asked residents for addresses and geolocated coordinates of Russian forces’ housing and deployment points, Russian ground lines of communication, residences of local occupation authorities, and the biographical details including names, addresses, and places of employment of all Russian collaborators and sympathizers.

ISW.

I may be wrong, but the GUR -not the GRU- is telling them to become enemy combatants?
And we are all pretty sure that those -supposed?- collaborators will have the maximum guaranties in their fair trial...
as usual.

[Certain Russian user]

Ukraine is confident that it will retake Kherson by September. The Russians are in an extremely poor position here. There are only two bridges crossing the Dniper river and Ukraine is consistently making them unusable with HIMAR systems to where the can't restock and reposition troops. There is a high likelihood that Russia will have to cede massive amounts of terrain or suffer massive losses to the Ukrainians here.

Yeah, that's exactly the reason I love to re-visit this thread from time to time...

Meanwhile, today Russian "musicians" completely took control of the Uglegorsk TPP. This was the difficult task since ukrops were well prepared for defence, and infrastructure had to be preserved (so, no missiles or artillery). Nevertheless, mission accomplished:



=== === ===

In general, this month after the liberation of Lysychansk was rather "calm". The daily missile strikes, as always, were bearing fruit: one can easily recruit another 10,000 conscripts to replace the dead, but this is not so easy to replace even 100 killed officers. Artillery did a great job, tactical successes here or there... and still, no large-scale offensive. The keyword of this month was "consolidation", rather even political than military: strengthening of new administrations in the liberated territories, rapid housing construction in Mariupol (winter is coming, and people need housing), preparation for accession referendums (so far, scheduled for september, but I'm not so sure). From what I learned from the media (never stated directly, but a lot of hints here and there, obvious for those reading "between the lines"), this "calm phase" should soon end.

Therefore, let's watch (as long as we don't have to participate).

[caltrek]

‘The Russians Have Nothing Equivalent’: How HIMARS Help Ukraine
by John Psaropoulos
July 26, 2022

Extract::

(Al Jazeera) The M142 HIMARS, the High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems supplied to Ukraine by the United States, have become a symbol of Russian vulnerability.
…
Ukraine has reportedly damaged Russian ammunition depots, command posts and air defences using just eight HIMARS launchers, each of which has six launch tubes armed with the ordinary GMLRS (Guided Multiple Launch Rocket Systems) rockets with 80 to 120km (50- to 75-mile) range.
These went into service in Ukraine on June 25.

By July 16, Ukraine’s defence ministry said Kyiv had destroyed at least 30 logistics hubs deep behind enemy lines. A week later, US Pentagon sources were talking about 100 high-value targets having been hit.
…
For their part, Kremlin officials have denied Kyiv’s claims, countering that Russian forces have struck HIMARS ammunition depots in Ukraine.
…
Australian retired major-general Mick Ryan believed that HIMARS have “changed the battlefield calculus in the fight for Ukraine”, allowing Ukrainians to pursue what he calls the “strategy of corrosion” of Russian capabilities and morale, which brought them victory in the battle for Kyiv.

Read more here: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/7 ... p-ukraine

[Certain Russian user]

‘The Russians Have Nothing Equivalent’: How HIMARS Help Ukraine

Yes, another "wunderwaffe that will change everything" after Javelins, NLAWs, and Bayractars. Propaganda pattern is always the same... I still think the high-precision missile strikes against their headquarters are quite equivalent. One of the most successful and memorable was in Vinnitsa, where our missile visited a meeting of the Ukrainian Air Force top stuff with some Western emissaries (to discuss the new supplies, I suspect). All the participants were successfully denazified.

allowing Ukrainians to pursue what he calls the “strategy of corrosion” of Russian capabilities and morale...

So far, they're rather "corroding" themselves. Internet is full with video messages of this and that unit refusing to fight and "returning home". Here, again, an interesting pattern: units from Eastern Ukraine almost never defect. and units from Western Ukraine do it often and easily. That's understandable: ethnic Russians are toughest warriors, even when they are "Ukrainians".

...which brought them victory in the battle for Kyiv.

There was no any "battle for Kyiv". And if even was, this "battle" has ended in late march where was no any "HIMARS" around. Just saying...