Food Price Watch Thread

[Ken_J]

with the heat levels we've seen so far this year along with drought conditions for years in some areas, it's gotta be effecting crop losses and grain fed meat. Independent of the political and trade issues, I suspect that it's going to get very bad over the next 8-12 months. Like dust bowl bad. and expect prices on what supply we do have to skyrocket.

I wonder how that'll effect the commodities markets and the as collateral damage the stock market. what percentage of those markets are individual investors who will potentially lose jobs, be in over their head on mortgages for homes that were over priced in the last year, and feel the pinch of food and fuel costs to the degree that they raid their investments to keep afloat longer?

and politically we know what the response from the masses will be. it's a right mess we are looking down the barrel of right now.

[caltrek]

The Largest U.S. Spice Company is Raising Prices in America – but Not China
July 22, 2022

Introduction:

(More Perfect Union) McCormick & Co., the world’s largest spice and seasoning company, is looking to recover losses from inflation by raising prices for American consumers, but not Chinese. If you ask CEO Lawrence Kurzius it’s because of “market conditions.”

“Market conditions in China have also allowed very little opportunity to increase prices,” Kurzius told investors earlier in the summer. However, that’s not the case for American consumers. The Maryland-based spice giant is a dominant force in both consumer spices and industrial ingredients. It has already raised prices multiple times in America and is planning additional increases in the back half of 2022. Management expects “pricing actions and other levers to begin to outpace cost pressures late in the third quarter.”

Conclusion:

In 2000, management settled charges with the FTC that it engaged in anti-competitive practices. The FTC alleged that the company offered price discounts to American retailers in exchange for shelf space. In some cases, the federal government estimated that the scheme resulted in McCormick receiving 90% of available shelf space from retailers. Lack of competition is often credited with higher consumer prices.

Read more here: https://perfectunion.us/mccormick-to-r ... ot-china/

[caltrek]

Food Inflation Eating Into Walmart's Gross Sales
July 27, 2022

Introduction:

(Produce News) Walmart revised its outlook for profit for the Q2 and full-year, primarily due to price reductions aimed to improve inventory levels.

Comp sales for Walmart U.S., excluding fuel, are expected to be about 6 percent for the second quarter. This is higher than previously expected with a heavier mix of food and consumables, which is negatively affecting gross margin rate.

"Customers are choosing Walmart to save money during this inflationary period, and this is reflected in the company’s continued market share gains in grocery," the company said in a statement.

Food inflation is double digits and higher than at the end of Q1. This is affecting customers’ ability to spend on general merchandise categories and requiring more markdowns to move through the inventory, particularly apparel.

During the quarter, the company made progress reducing inventory, managing prices to reflect certain supply chain costs and inflation, and reducing storage costs associated with a backlog of shipping containers.

Read more (additional paragraph) here: https://theproducenews.com/headlines/f ... oss-sales

[caltrek]

Want to Lower Grocery prices? Urge Senate to Pass Farm Workforce Modernization Act
by Jeff Brumley
July 28, 2022

Introduction:

(Baptist News Global) Those who think immigrants are stealing American jobs not only are wrong but are imperiling the American economy with their unsubstantiated views, a panel of agricultural leaders said July 27.

“Each year, we see the end of generational farms because it’s harder for our members, and growers across the country, to find a reliable domestic workforce,” said Joel Anderson, executive director of the Idaho-based Snake River Farmer’s Association.

He was one of the panelists on a webinar organized by the Alliance for New Immigration Consensus to support the Farm Workforce Modernization Act., which has been approved by the U.S. House of Representatives but remains pending in the Senate. The bill would revive a flagging U.S. economy, improve border protections and strengthen national security, the panel of business owners, farmers and consumer advocates said.

Additional extract:

Passage of the Farm Workforce Modernization Act also would help restore the nation’s food security, said Lori Taylor, founder and CEO of The Produce Moms of Indiana, a consumer advocacy organization.

The anemic seasonal workforce is contributing to higher food prices, which in turn drives up inflation and hunger, she said. “Two of the most resilient communities are our farmers and our moms, but we are at the point where no one can continue to fight against these grocery store prices. We know that comprehensive immigration reform will help drive down the cost of goods in our country.”

Read more here: https://baptistnews.com/article/want-t ... ists-say/

[caltrek]

A Super-Tax on Nutrition in Malnourished India?
by Indra Shekhar Singh
July 31, 2022

Introduction:

(Janata Weekly) Get ready to pay GST on your jhalmuri and bhujiya because amid rising fuel prices, global food inflation and imminent nutrition crisis, the GST Council has taxed most of India’s ‘desi’ food products. Millet, rice, cottage cheese, savouries, lotus seed and jaggery, as per the government’s notification, will have to pay GST for purchases below 25 kilos. The GST, at varying rates, will apply to “pre-packaged” and “labelled” products in the market. The target is ultimately the small buyer of these items, as purchases of over 25 kilos are not in the ambit of the recent notification.

Before we move further, it is vital to understand the term “pre-packaged”. It means “a commodity which, without the purchaser being present, is placed in a package of whatever nature, whether sealed or not, so that the product contained therein has a pre-determined quantity”. So, any quantity of these items weighing below 25 kilos has been brought under the GST net, and even hawkers, street vendors and local grocery/kirana stores will be bound to comply. The GST Council has not even spared local Indian food items such as puffed rice, khoi, and salted snacks.
In a queer way, the GST Council has built upon Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s vision of “pakoda-nomics”. After all, unemployment is a myth. Right? To paraphrase his remarks, if someone opens a pakoda shop before your office, does that not count as employment? A person’s daily earning of Rs. 200 will never come into any books or accounts. The truth is massive people are being employed, Modi had said. And so, the government has decided to tax the pakodawala and every street food vendor through the new notification. It is a clear-cut attempt to formalise the unorganised food sector by discouraging the smallest vendors through a tax burden.

But that is not all. Contrary to its claims of seeking to promote organic farming, the government has even decided to impose GST on organic fertilisers and organic food items. This will directly affect small-scale organic farmers who trade in organic fertilisers or make it. They all need to charge GST on the fertilisers and their produce.

Read more here: https://janataweekly.org/a-super-tax-o ... ed-india/

caltrek's comment: With regressive policies like that in place, it is a wonder that India has not been overtaken by a revolution.

[weatheriscool]

3 more ships with grain depart Ukraine ports under UN deal
Source: AP

By ZEYNEP BILGINSOY and AYA BATRAWY

ISTANBUL (AP) — Three more ships carrying thousands of tons of corn have left Ukrainian ports, officials said Friday, in the latest sign that a negotiated deal to export grain trapped since Russia invaded Ukraine nearly six months ago is slowly materializing. But major hurdles lie ahead to get food to the countries that need it most.

The ships bound for Ireland, the United Kingdom and Turkey follow the first grain shipment to pass through the Black Sea since the start of the war. The passage of that vessel heading for Lebanon earlier this week was the first under the breakthrough deal brokered by Turkey and the United Nations with Russia and Ukraine.

The Black Sea region is dubbed the world’s breadbasket, with Ukraine and Russia key global suppliers of wheat, corn, barley and sunflower oil that millions of impoverished people in Africa, the Middle East and parts of Asia rely on for survival.

While the shipments have raised hopes of easing a global food crisis, much of the grain that Ukraine is trying to export is used for animal feed, not for people to eat, experts say. The first vessels to leave are among more than a dozen bulk carriers and cargo ships that had been loaded with grain but stuck in ports since Russia invaded in late February. And the cargoes are not expected to have a significant impact on the global price of corn, wheat and soybeans for several reasons.

Read more: https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukrai ... 261c1a35d9

[caltrek]

Rural Church Offers Community Development Grants through Gratitude Project
by Jeff Brumley
August 5, 2022

Introduction:

(Baptist News Global ) Pastor Dennis Atwood concluded a sermon series focused on gratitude last fall by challenging his congregation at First Baptist Church of Mount Olive to seek systemic solutions to systemic poverty and food insecurity in their rural corner of eastern North Carolina.

What they came up with is the “Gratitude Project,” an ongoing, $100,000 community development grant initiative for local individuals, nonprofits and ministries attempting to address the deep-seated causes of hunger and poverty in Wayne County.

“We’re trying to do some intentional things to target that part of the community because it is undeserved in many ways. It’s a systemic problem, but the solution has to start somewhere,” Atwood said.

The effort caught the attention of Jason Coker, a Baptist minister and president of Together for Hope, a national community development coalition that addresses poverty and hunger mostly in rural areas.

In an email extolling the undertaking, Coker said he hopes other congregations will follow the example of Atwood and his church, which is affiliated with the Cooperative Baptist Fellowship.

Read more here: https://baptistnews.com/article/rural- ... -project/

[weatheriscool]

Wholesale inflation fell 0.5% in July, in another sign that price increases are slowing

PUBLISHED THU, AUG 11 2022 * 8:39 AM EDT * UPDATED 10 MIN AGO

Jeff Cox

Wholesale prices fell in July for the first time in two years as a plunge in energy prices slowed the pace of inflation, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Thursday.

The producer price index, which gauges the prices received for final demand products, fell 0.5% from June, the first month-over-month decrease since April 2020, the month after Covid-19 was declared a pandemic. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been expecting an increase of 0.2%.

On an annual basis, the index rose 9.8%, the lowest rate since October 2021. That compares to an 11.2% increase in June and the record 11.6% gain in March.

Most of the decline came from energy, which declined 9% at the wholesale level.

This is breaking news. Please check back here for updates.

Read more: https://www.cnbc.com/2022/08/11/produce ... 2022-.html

[weatheriscool]

U.S. inflation outlook brightens as import prices drop, consumer sentiment rises
Source: Reuters

U.S. import prices fell for the first time in seven months in July, helped by a strong dollar and lower fuel and nonfuel costs, while consumers' one-year inflation outlook ebbed in August, the latest signs that price pressures may have peaked.

Import prices, which exclude tariffs, fell 1.4% last month after rising 0.3% in June, the Labor Department said on Friday.

That was the largest monthly drop since April 2020 and exceeded the 1.0% decline expected by economists in a Reuters poll. In the 12 months through July, import prices gained 8.8% after a 10.7% rise in June, marking the annual rate's fourth straight monthly decline.

The report followed other tentative indications earlier this week that inflation was finally coming off the boil. U.S. consumer prices were unchanged in July due to a sharp drop in the cost of gasoline, after advancing 1.3% in June, although underlying price pressures remained elevated. Producer prices also declined last month on the back of lower energy costs.

Read more: https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/us-i ... 022-08-12/

[weatheriscool]

Ship carrying grain for hungry Ethiopia leaves Ukraine
Source: ABC News

KYIV, Ukraine -- A United Nations-chartered ship loaded with 23,000 metric tons of Ukrainian grain destined for Ethiopia set sail Sunday from a Black Sea port, the first shipment of its kind in a program to assist countries facing famine.

The Liberia-flagged Brave Commander departed from the Ukrainian port of Yuzhne, east of Odesa, according to regional governor Maksym Marchenko. It plans to sail to Djibouti, where the grain will be unloaded and transferred to Ethiopia under the World Food Program initiative.

Ukraine and Russia reached a deal with Turkey on July 22 to restart Black Sea grain deliveries, addressing the major export disruption that has occurred since Russia invaded Ukraine in February.

Read more: https://abcnews.go.com/International/wi ... s-88360225

[weatheriscool]

UK inflation exceeds 10% as bread and milk prices soar

By Mark Thompson, CNN Business

Updated 5:27 AM ET, Wed August 17, 2022

(CNN Business) -- Inflation in the United Kingdom hit a new 40-year high last month, rising above 10% for the first time since 1982 and piling further pain on households already struggling to pay their bills.

Annual consumer price inflation hit 10.1% in July, according to data published by the Office for National Statistics on Wednesday, up from 9.4% in June. Soaring food prices — up 12.7% since July 2021 — were the largest single contributor to the acceleration in inflation, the ONS said.

The headline inflation number was higher than predicted by a Reuters poll of economists, and food inflation is now running at its highest level in 14 years. ... "All the eleven food and non-alcoholic beverage classes made upward contributions to the change in the annual inflation rate, where prices overall rose this year but fell a year ago," the ONS said.

The largest upward contributions came from bread and cereals, and from milk, cheese and eggs, with notable price increases in cheddar cheese and yoghurts. ... On a monthly basis, the consumer price index was up 0.6% in July, compared with no change a year ago. Higher gasoline and diesel prices, together with rising air fares, were also to blame, the ONS added.

{snip}

Read more: https://www.cnn.com/2022/08/17/economy/ ... index.html

[caltrek]

Food Price Increases and Inflation in the U.S.
by Abby Vesoulis and Hannah Levintova
August 19, 2022

Extract:

(Mother Jones) The Ukraine-Russia conflict plays an outsized role in the grocery hikes. Together, the countries are normally responsible for more than half of the world's vegetable oil exports and more than a third of the global wheat supply, but exports have fallen steadily due to the war. Sanctions against Russia have also impacted the supply chain, collectively culminating in food price increases across the globe.

Additionally, Brazil produces at least four-fifth's of the world's orange juice and a third of its soy, sugar, and coffee—in normal weather conditions. The past few years have been anything but: Last year, the country's southern region faced its worst drought in a century, while its north has seen an increase in disease due to too much rain. These weather conditions have consequences. Between April 2020 and December 2021, the global price for soybeans jumped more than 50 percent, while coffee beans surged more 70 percent, according to a February New York Times analysis.

If weather and war are causes of inflation, the companies themselves might be part of the problem too. The price of meat, poultry, and eggs has increased 10.9 percent since July 2021. Like other industries, meat processors have also faced supply chain and labor struggles, but there is also evidence some are raising prices far above their increased costs. Tyson, one of the world's largest meat processors, estimated in the second quarter of 2022 that it responded to a $1.5 billion operating cost increases by raising prices roughly $2 billion. Tyson's 12-month gross profit margin is 15.6 percent, according to market research platform Finbox, while its median gross profit margin for fiscal years 2017-2021 were 13.4 percent.

Grocery stores themselves are holding fairly steady profit margins despite the sticker shock you're experiencing at checkout lines.

The 12-month gross profit margin average at Kroger Co., which also owns grocery chains King Soopers and Harris Teeter, is 22.4 percent, slightly below its 22.8 percent median gross profit margin between fiscal years ending February 2018 to 2022.

The article also discusses rising prices of gas, electricity, airfare, dining out, new cars, and housing rentals.

Read more here: https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2 ... xpensive/

[caltrek]

New Roots of Famine
August 18, 2022

Introduction:

(Bulletin of Atomic Scientists) Radio Ergo, a news outlet that focuses on humanitarian news in the Horn of Africa, recently reported on the plight of Hawo Adan Shuriye, a widow with nine children in central Somalia’s Galgadud region. She was forced from her home by conflict between the Somali national army and the paramilitary forces of Ahlu Sunnah Wal Jama’a.

According to the radio station, Hawo lost dozens of goats during a skirmish last year. She had previously collected two containers of milk daily from her goats, worth about three dollars. “You can see we are sheltering under trees that we have wrapped up with clothes. We have no proper shelter here, no food. We have no one else except Allah,” she told Radio Ergo. “What I am now left with are four goats. I looked for the lost goats for about a month, but I have now lost hope of getting them back,” she told Radio Ergo.

Hawo is one of many thousands. The ongoing drought in the Horn of Africa—which scientists say has been intensified by climate change—has led to an extraordinary humanitarian crisis as large areas of Ethiopia, Kenya, and Somalia teeter on the brink of famine. But the drought is only partly to blame for the suffering. Two other significant threats are contributing to the likelihood of famine: food shortages caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and regional and insurgent conflict preventing aid from reaching those most in need. Meanwhile, large numbers of people have been forced—by failed crops and war—to migrate, creating hygiene and water problems that have led to serious disease outbreaks.

Read more here: https://thebulletin.org/2022/08/how-cl ... t-heading

[wjfox]

[wjfox]

[caltrek]

Harvard and University of Washington Study Concludes Pandemic Federal Programs Helped Kids in Need Get Access to 1.5 Billion Meals Every Month
September 9, 2022

Conclusion:

(EurekAlert) Based on your findings, what should Congress do for kids?

Krieger: Our study offers evidence that these components of the proposed act — an EBT (Electronic Benefit Transfer) program to distribute the value of school meals, similar to the proposed summer-EBT program, combined with expanded distribution of meals in the community, similar to the expanded summer meals program— were effective in feeding millions of children when schools were closed due to COVID and suggests that they will also likely be effective in delivering food to children during school summer recess. Including both programs in the act would help to assure food access when schools are closed during summer breaks.

Kenney: An important takeaway from our study that may be relevant for the conversation about the Healthy Meals, Healthy Kids Act is that these should be considered together, as a two-pronged strategy. The two approaches complement one another: P-EBT can help make sure that at least the cash value of those missed meals can get out to low-income families efficiently, and grab-and-go meals can ensure that families who may be struggling but may not have a low-enough income to qualify for P-EBT can still get meals. They can also ensure that families who may have more difficulty preparing food — like families experiencing homelessness or with limited kitchen facilities, or even just with limited time — can access nutritionally adequate meals.

What else should Congress consider?

Krieger: The federal government should be investigating strategies for optimizing the cost-effectiveness of grab-and-go school meals. It should also expand the P-EBT program or its equivalent to cover 60 meals per month instead of 40 to match the grab-and-go school meals benefit level. And, it should work to optimize the nutritional quality of the foods provided.
quote]Read more here: https://www.eurekalert.org/news-releases/964338

[caltrek]

Food Price Index Drops for the Fifth Consecutive Month in August
September 2, 2022

Introduction:

(Food and Agricultural Organization of the United Nations ) FAO Food Price Index

The FAO Food Price Index (FFPI) is a measure of the monthly change in international prices of a basket of food commodities. It consists of the average of five commodity group price indices weighted by the average export shares of each of the groups over 2014-2016. A feature article published in the June 2020 edition of the Food Outlook presents the revision of the base period for the calculation of the FFPI and the expansion of its price coverage, to be introduced from July 2020. A November 2013 article contains technical background on the previous construction of the FFPI.(See link below for further links regarding the referenced articles).

Monthly release dates for 2022: 6 January, 3 February, 4 March, 8 April, 6 May, 3 June, 8 July, 5 August, 2 September, 7 October, 4 November, 2 December.

FAO Food Price Index drops for the fifth consecutive month in August
…
» The FAO Food Price Index* (FFPI) averaged 138.0 points in August 2022, down 2.7 points (1.9 percent) from July, registering its fifth consecutive monthly decline. Despite the latest drop, the index remained 10.1 points (7.9 percent) above its value a year ago. All the five sub-indices of the FFPI fell moderately in August, with monthly percentage declines ranging from 1.4 percent for cereals to 3.3 percent for vegetable oils.

» The FAO Cereal Price Index averaged 145.2 points in August, down 2.0 points (1.4 percent) from July, but still 14.8 points (11.4 percent) above its August 2021 value. In August, international wheat prices fell by 5.1 percent, marking the third consecutive monthly decline, driven by improved production prospects, especially in Canada, the United States of America and the Russian Federation, and higher seasonal availability as harvests continued in the northern hemisphere as well as the resumption of exports from the Black Sea ports in Ukraine for the first time in over five months of interruption. Nevertheless, global wheat prices remained 10.6 percent above their values in August last year. International prices of coarse grains increased marginally (+0.2 percent) in August and averaged 12.4 percent above their values a year ago. World maize prices firmed slightly, up 1.5 percent, largely influenced by lower production prospects in the European Union and the United States of America due to hot, dry conditions, while the resumption of exports from Ukraine prevented prices from increasing further. By contrast, global barley and sorghum prices decreased by 3.8 percent and 3.4 percent, respectively. The FAO All Rice Price Index held steady in August, as slight declines in quotations of the most widely traded Indica varieties compensated for mild price gains in other rice market segments.

» The FAO Vegetable Oil Price Index averaged 163.3 points in August, down 5.5 points (3.3 percent) month-on-month, pushing the index value slightly below its year-earlier level. The continued decline of the index was driven by lower world prices of palm, sunflower and rapeseed oils, which more than offset higher soyoil quotations. International palm oil prices fell for the fifth consecutive month in August, driven by increasing export availabilities from Indonesia, mainly thanks to lower export taxes, as well as seasonally rising outputs in Southeast Asia. In the meantime, world sunflower oil values declined on lingering subdued global import demand that coincided with the gradual resumption of shipments from Ukraine’s seaports. International quotations for rapeseed oil also dropped in August, due to prospects of ample supplies for the upcoming 2022/23 season. By contrast, world soyoil prices rebounded only moderately, mainly because of concerns over the impact of unfavourable weather conditions on soybean production in the United States of America.

Read more here: https://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation ... index/en/

[caltrek]

Crop Disruption from War in Ukraine Could Increase Global Carbon Emissions and Food Prices
September 19, 2022

Introduction:

( EurekAlert) INDIANAPOLIS -- The disruption of crop production after the Russian invasion of Ukraine is expected to increase carbon emissions and food prices across the globe, without easing food insecurity.

New research published this week from Jerome Dumortier, associate professor in the O'Neill School of Public and Environmental Affairs at IUPUI, and his co-authors, uses economic simulation models to predict the short-term and long-term effects of the war on climate change, crop prices and food shortages.

The study found that the war's impact on crop production and exports in Ukraine and Russia will continue to increase the world's food prices and food insecurity, but not as much as initially feared -- largely because other countries have stepped up their production. Researchers estimate we may see corn and wheat prices increasing by up to 4.6% and 7.2%, respectively. They also considered the prices of crops like barley, rice, soybeans, sunflower and wheat, which are predicted to increase.

Nations already facing significant food insecurity will be impacted most, they predict.

"There was a lot of worry about food insecurity globally when the war first started in Ukraine," Dumortier said. "Our research shows while this will continue to impact the global supply chain, the effects on food shortages won't be as bad as we initially thought. Much of that is because other countries have started to produce those crops and exports to make up for what Ukraine has not been sending out."

Read more of the EurekAlert article here: https://www.eurekalert.org/news-releases/965194

For the Nature Food article that presents the research findings: https://www.nature.com/articles/s43016-022-00600-0

[caltrek]

Why Food Keeps Getting More Expensive
by Madeleine Ngo
October 13, 2022

Introduction:

(Vox) Rising inflation continues to strain American households, and stubbornly high prices have been especially evident for shoppers at the grocery store.

A jump in inflation in September was partly fueled by rising food prices, according to a Consumer Price Index report released on Thursday. Overall inflation rose 8.2 percent from a year ago, driven by gains in food, rent, and medical care costs.

In September, food prices rose 11.2 percent compared to a year ago and 0.8 percent from the month before. Everything from meat and cereal to fruits and vegetables grew more expensive. Food prices at restaurants also climbed 0.9 percent from the month before, while food at home increased 0.7 percent.

Food has become more expensive for a range of reasons. Increased gas prices and labor shortages have driven up costs for businesses. The war in Ukraine has disrupted exports of wheat, sunflower oil, and other produce, straining the global food supply and pushing up prices. And climate-related issues, such as a drought in the Western portion of the United States, have lowered crop yields.

“Spikes in costs due to labor, production disruptions, transportation demands, and global conflict are affecting every aspect of the food business,” Andrew Harig, the vice president of tax, trade, sustainability, and policy development at The Food Industry Association (FMI), said in a statement after the CPI report’s release. “Today’s numbers make it clear that there is still work to be done to address these issues.”

Read more here: https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politic ... pi-prices

[caltrek]

Americans are Buying Less at the Supermarket
by Emily Peck
October 18, 2022

Introduction:

(Axios) Americans are buying fewer items at the grocery store, as food prices surge, a new survey finds.

Why it matters: We're at a turning point when it comes to food shopping. For a while, inflation was mainly changing what types of items consumers bought — more generics, and different cuts of meat.

• Now Americans are starting to simply buy less, says Emily Moquin, food and beverage analyst at Morning Consult, which conducted the survey.
• People are starting to think about what they truly need — and what can wait.
• It's the opposite of the "pantry loading" we saw in 2020. Now it's pantry unloading. You buy less and work your way through what remains of the old stockpile.

Read more here: https://www.axios.com/2022/10/18/super ... -shopping


Change in price of select food items September 2021 to September 2022 according to U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics as summarized in the above cited article:

All food at home +13.0%
Cereals and bakery products +16.2
Dairy products +15.9
Nonalcoholic beverages +12.9
Fruits and vegetables +10.4
Meats, poultry, fish and eggs +9.0

U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics site containing this information in more detailed form: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.t01.htm