2023-2024 Presidential, senate, house, state and city election thread

[firestar464]

Palestinians in Gaza warm to Kamala Harris, prefer 'anyone over Trump'

https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/20 ... over-trump

[weatheriscool]

[wjfox]

A new Bloomberg poll on the economy:

[wjfox]

[caltrek]

My opinion looking at the data as of today
The bad
Florida isn't within 7% for harris. Certain Trump.
Georgia is 3-4% more white and the turn out in the rurals is fucking Amazing. 2-3% for Trump.
NC is slipping away...1-2% for Trump.
Arizona the republicans have a 80k lead and we're nearing a 1/3rd of 2020 vote. There's no way in hell Harris will win it on election night.
Nevada is gone for Harris. 2020 Biden had a 50k lead at this point,,,while Harris is down nearly 24k.

It will come down to the rust belt and Neb 2....
The good
Mi is safe Harris.
Pa the return rate for democrats is slowing fast so they'll be likely to get 400k firewall. The thing is republicans are voting early and so there's hope that the democrats will have a good election day to win it. I say 70% chance of Harris winning it.
Wi probably 8% for Harris as the midwest seems to be favorable for harris. As in the wave to the south isn't creepen in.
Neb-2 is leading by 4k votes for democrats.

Based on what you've said here, the electoral college would be:

Democrats 275
Republicans 263

Even without Nebraska, Harris would still reach 270.

Or am I wrong?

Anyway, it's surely too early to be making such firm conclusions.

Most predictions of a 270 electoral college vote for Harris include one vote from Nebraska going for Harris. Nebraska is one of two states that awards 2 electors statewide and then one elector independently for each congressional district. The 270 total assumes one vote from Nebraska going for Harris and one vote in Maine going for Trump. The vote from Maine would come from that state's northern congressional district. Maine and Nebraska are the only two states that award on this basis. All other states are winner take all.

It looks like weatheriscool make a couple of simplifying assumptions which may prove valid. One is that all Republicans will go for Trump while all Democrats will go for Harris. Harris, with the help of folks like Liz Cheney, is actually making a play for some Republicans. If successful, Republicans could actually turn out in greater numbers while Harris could still win based on those Republican for Harris votes.

Another simplifying assumption is that independents - those not registered as either Democrats or Republicans, will vote in proportion to the split between Republicans and Democrats in any given state. If they break in large numbers in one direction or another instead of proportionately, they could also sway the election results despite a greater turn out in numbers by the losing party.

So, it is too early to make firm conclusions, but trends may very well be pointing in the direction weatheriscool is saying. We will know when those votes that have been cast are actually counted.

[weatheriscool]

[wjfox]

uggh

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Donald Trump joined on Michigan stage by Arab and Muslim leaders

2h ago
19.12 BST

At his rally in Novi, Donald Trump was joined on stage by leaders of the state’s Arab and Muslim communities.

“We as Muslims stand with President Trump because he promises peace. He promises peace, not war. We are supporting Donald Trump because he promised to end war in the Middle East and Ukraine,” one member of the coalition said. “We support Donald J Trump for his commitment to promoting family values and protected our children well-being, especially when it comes to curriculums and schools.”

Speaking to Michigan’s large Muslim community, which has expressed marked dissatisfaction with Joe Biden’s handling of the war in Gaza, Trump decried Harris for campaigning alongside former Republican senator Liz Cheney.

“Kamala is campaigning with Muslim-hating warmonger Liz Cheney, who wants to invade practically every Muslim country on the planet,” Trump said, implying that the October 7 attack in Israel wouldn’t have happened if he’d been president.

Adding that he’d met with a coalition of local imams earlier in the day, Trump said that his campaign is “winning overwhelming support from the Muslim and Arab voters here in Michigan”.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/liv ... 42be7573ed

[weatheriscool]

8% to the right or more republican so far.

[weatheriscool]

Harris Regains 4 Point Lead in ABC News Poll

Turnout is key. Just 2 percentage points divide Harris and Donald Trump among all registered voters, 49-47%. This goes to a slight Harris advantage among likely voters, 51-47%, with some pro-Harris groups showing a bit more propensity to vote.

Compared with earlier this month, Harris has regained a more customary Democratic advantage among Hispanic people and widened her advantage among suburban women, while remaining strong in core groups including Black people. Trump pushes back in rural areas and among non-college white men and runs competitively among younger men.

Eight percent of adults (and 10% of registered voters) say they've already voted (as of early last week); a disproportionately Democratic group, they went 62-33% for Harris.

This poll finds a notable shift in vote preferences among Hispanic people, 12% of likely voters and a potentially important group given the close contest, especially in the battleground states of Arizona and Nevada. Biden won Hispanic people by 33 points in 2020, per the ABC News exit poll, and Harris leads in this group by a similar 30 points now, 64-34% -- compared with 55-43% in early October.

https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/story?id=115083875

[weatheriscool]

[weatheriscool]

[caltrek]

The Transparent Election
by Erin Doherty
October 27, 2024

Extract:

(Axios) In Pinal County, Ariz., the state's fastest-growing county, the transparency reboot involves a new $32 million, 53,000-square-foot election headquarters that includes a "fishbowl" where members of the public can have a 360-degree view of ballots being processed…

Fulton County, Ga., one of several big swing-state counties that could decide the election, moved into a new hub last year with an open floor plan, allowing voters to "come in and observe," said Nadine Williams, director of registration and elections in Fulton…

In Palm Beach County, Fla., the elections office has a Virtual Elections Experience Tour, where voters can see how the process works, said Wendy Link, the county's supervisor of elections…

In Douglas County, Colo., there's a 24/7 livestream of ballot drop boxes available to the public..

"[There's] something about bringing people into your house and showing them in person that really makes a big difference," said Eric Olsen, general registrar of elections in Prince William County, Va., which held open houses for its election center.

Read more here: https://www.axios.com/2024/10/27/elect ... s-trump

[wjfox]

FBI: Russian actors made fake video showing destroyed mail-in ballots in Bucks County

By 6abc Digital Staff WPVI logo
Saturday, October 26, 2024 4:31AM

YARDLEY, Pa. (WPVI) -- Russian actors were behind a widely circulated video falsely depicting mail-in ballots for Donald Trump being destroyed in Pennsylvania, U.S. officials confirmed on Friday.

The video had taken off on social media Thursday but was debunked within three hours by local election officials and law enforcement after members of the public reported it.

U.S. officials said in a statement sent by the FBI that they believe the video was "manufactured and amplified" by Russian actors. The officials said it's part of "Moscow's broader effort to raise unfounded questions about the integrity of the U.S. election and stoke divisions among Americans."

https://6abc.com/post/election-2024-rus ... /15470759/

[weatheriscool]

[Time_Traveller]

Here is what Metaculus.com is predicting in the 2024 Presidential election: - https://www.metaculus.com/experiments/elections/

[weatheriscool]

[wjfox]

[caltrek]

At first, I hesitated to post this article because so many votes have already been cast that, it would seem, the endorsement is too late in the process to dramatically affect the outcome. Still, it does point to what is at stake in the election and is thus worth quoting.

82 Nobel-Prize Recipients in Science Fields Endorse Harris
by April Rubin
October 25, 2024

Introduction:

(Axios) More than 80 Nobel Prize winners from a variety of scientific fields endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris for president, lauding her commitment to technology and research.

Why it matters: Scientific advancements and climate change responses would be undermined by former President Trump, the scientists warned during the final days of the razor-thin campaign.

• The signatories are Nobel Prize recipients in chemistry, economics, medicine and physics from the 1970s to this year.

What they're saying: "The enormous increases in living standards and life expectancies over the past two centuries are largely the result of advances in science and technology," the letter said.

• "Kamala Harris recognizes this and understands that maintaining America's leadership in these fields requires budgetary support from the federal government, independent universities, and international collaboration."

Read more here: https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politic ... AA1sRDZA

[weatheriscool]

[wjfox]