The Republican Trainwreck of the 2026 Election Cycle by Ben Jacobs
May 14, 2025
Introduction:
(Politico) Sen. John Cornyn is anathema to many Republican primary voters. Ken Paxton, a state attorney general, may be too tarred by scandal to win a general election.
Ten months out, the Texas Senate primary is shaping up as the GOP trainwreck of the 2026 election cycle, a cash-burning demolition derby that threatens to fracture the party, force the White House to intervene and perhaps even put an otherwise safe seat at risk in November.
“I hate to see that kind of internecine warfare in my party,” said Rep. Mike McCaul (R-Texas). “It’ll be an ugly one.”
For Cornyn, a pillar of the GOP establishment who only recently fell just short of being elected the Republican leader in the Senate, it’s an awkward position to be in after close to four decades in statewide elected office.
He’s maintained a consistently conservative voting record and rarely broken with President Donald Trump on issues of substance. He’d be a strong favorite to win a fifth term if he were the GOP nominee. But increasingly, Cornyn’s become out of step with primary voters in a state party that is now effectively more Breitbart Republican than Bush Republican.
caltrek wrote: ↑Sun May 18, 2025 5:43 pm The Republican Trainwreck of the 2026 Election Cycle by Ben Jacobs
May 14, 2025
Introduction:
(Politico) Sen. John Cornyn is anathema to many Republican primary voters. Ken Paxton, a state attorney general, may be too tarred by scandal to win a general election.
Ten months out, the Texas Senate primary is shaping up as the GOP trainwreck of the 2026 election cycle, a cash-burning demolition derby that threatens to fracture the party, force the White House to intervene and perhaps even put an otherwise safe seat at risk in November.
“I hate to see that kind of internecine warfare in my party,” said Rep. Mike McCaul (R-Texas). “It’ll be an ugly one.”
For Cornyn, a pillar of the GOP establishment who only recently fell just short of being elected the Republican leader in the Senate, it’s an awkward position to be in after close to four decades in statewide elected office.
He’s maintained a consistently conservative voting record and rarely broken with President Donald Trump on issues of substance. He’d be a strong favorite to win a fifth term if he were the GOP nominee. But increasingly, Cornyn’s become out of step with primary voters in a state party that is now effectively more Breitbart Republican than Bush Republican.
One of the few positives of loserterinism and Trump is the fact that it may win elections but then becomes extremely unpopular once in office. 2018 is a good example of it! People don't like slash, cut and burn. Democrats took back house in 2018.
One of the few positives of loserterinism and Trump is the fact that it may win elections but then becomes extremely unpopular once in office. 2018 is a good example of it! People don't like slash, cut and burn. Democrats took back house in 2018.
Very true. Now, if only the Democrats can pull their act together to take full advantage of the opportunity. Like winning more than just in the mid-terms.
A Democratic Socialist is Running for New York City Mayor by Sara Pequeño,
May 24, 2025
Introduction:
(USA Today) If you’re a certain kind of New Yorker – young, college-educated, and very online – there’s one mayoral candidate who stands out in a crowded primary election.
State assemblyman Zohran Mamdani, 33, has completely taken over my corner of the internet. I regularly see friends, acquaintances, influencers, and celebrities share videos and posts from him on TikTok, Instagram, and X.
There is part of me that is excited by the traction Mamdani’s getting. A Democratic socialist is polling second in the New York City mayor’s race, something that would be unheard of in the rest of the United States. His policy proposals excite me – I fully see how these plans could improve the lives of working-class New Yorkers, particularly his plans to make the city’s buses free and freeze rent for stabilized units. I worry that this message isn’t reaching the voters who could benefit from it the most.
If I took anything away from Kamala Harris’ 2024 presidential campaign, it’s that online clout doesn’t equate to votes. The support Mamdani has received from niche internet microcelebrities can only go so far. Ahead of the June primary, it may be best for him to prioritize other methods of campaigning.
Zohran Mamdani's uphill battle against Andrew Cuomo
Mamdani is still polling well below former governor Andrew Cuomo. A Marist University poll found Mamdani at 22% for the first round of ranked-choice voting. Despite having resigned over sexual harassment allegations, the possibility that he covered up nursing home deaths during the height of the COVID-19 pandemic, only having recently moved to the city and generally being unpopular, Cuomo is polling at 44% in the first round.
Antonio Villaraigosa is Dying to Run Against Kamala Harris for Governor. Here's Why by Mark Z. Barabak
May 23, 2025
Introduction:
(LA Times via MSN) If Kamala Harris runs for California governor, the job is essentially hers for the taking.
So goes the common wisdom.
After all, she's a household name, which is no small consideration in a state as vast and politically inattentive as California. She has a coast-to-coast fundraising base and a record of winning statewide contests going back to 2010, when she was first elected attorney general.
Who better, supporters say, to engage President Trump than the former prosecutor who whipped him in their one debate and only just lost the popular vote after being thrust overnight into a drastically truncated campaign?
Antonio Villaraigosa isn't buying that for a second.
After Struggling in the Senate, Alabama’s Tommy Tuberville Launches Campaign for Governor by Steve Benen
May 27, 2025
Introduction:
(MSNBC via MSN) The question was when, not whether, the GOP senator would kick off his second statewide bid for elected office. That question now has an answer.
During a Tuesday afternoon appearance on Fox News, the Republican made it official, announcing that he's ending his congressional career after just one term and running for governor in his adopted home state of Alabama. The on-air comments coincided with the launch of his new campaign website, which leans on the senator's alignment with Donald Trump.
Tuberville’s chances of success are excellent. While it was widely assumed that Will Ainsworth, Alabama’s incumbent lieutenant governor, would succeed term-limited Gov. Kay Ivey, Ainsworth saw the writing on the wall, realized he’d face an uphill fight against Tuberville and bowed out of consideration last week.
The senator, in other words, is likely to run unopposed in next year’s Republican gubernatorial primary in one of the nation’s reddest states. If anyone's is prepared to gamble on the 2026 contest, Tuberville’s odds look pretty good.
Republican Sen. Tommy Tuberville’s interest in Alabama’s gubernatorial campaign has been anything but subtle. The coach-turned-politician has spent recent months telling people on Capitol Hill that he intended to forgo re-election and run for governor, and last week, the Club for Growth’s political action committee took the unusual step of endorsing his candidacy — before it was even announced.
Pediatrician Annie Andrews Challenges Lindsey Graham in South Carolina by Caroline Vakil
May 29, 2025
Introduction:
(The Hill) Annie Andrews, a pediatrician and former congressional candidate, is launching a Democratic bid to challenge Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) next year.
In her roughly three-and-a-half-minute ad, Andrews used her background as a pediatrician to slam the Trump administration for its handling of different health crises and concerns. Her ad also criticizes Graham for voting to confirm President Trump’s appointees.
Her campaign ad also reminds voters of Graham’s past criticism of Trump, playing several clips of Graham calling the president a “kook” and suggesting Trump “should go to hell.” Graham has since turned into a key Trump ally since the 2016 election.
In an interview with The Hill ahead of her launch, Andrews described Graham as being ideologically inconsistent and suggested he prioritizes the business and donor community over everyday Americans.
She said Graham had been in the Senate for about half her life, saying that “one of the problems with that is that he’s changed his position on nearly every issue over the span of those 22 years, because he doesn’t believe in anything or stand for anything other than himself.”
VA-GOV: Spanberger is poised to win big in Virginia
NORFOLK, Virginia — Six months out from November, Virginia Democrats believe the governor’s race is Abigail Spanberger’s to lose.
There’s a risk the former member of Congress could get bogged down by national malaise toward the Democratic Party, and her margins could end up being tight because of the negative Democratic brand.
But Democrats are hopeful that Spanberger can overcome that national dynamic. She flipped a competitive district in 2018 that stretches into rural Southwest Virginia and she benefits from the unpopular actions of President Donald Trump. His stop-and-start trade war coupled with the elimination of thousands of federal jobs and looming Medicaid cuts are widely unwelcome in the Commonwealth. Spanberger enjoys strong name recognition and is far out-fundraising her opponent, a candidate who even some fellow Republicans are wincing about.
A sweeping Democratic victory this fall could spook Republicans in Congress over their inaction to Trump’s aggressive agenda and provide a blueprint for staying laser focused on kitchen table issues like economic uncertainty and federal belt-tightening that the party can ride into the midterms next year.
I find that Dems don't seem to understand that it does. not. matter. what kind of Dem you are- left, center, or whatever. People do not give a f*ck about how "left" or "right" you are. Trump showed that. All they care is that you address the issues they wanna hear about.
Detroit Voters Have an Opportunity to Pick a Mayor Who Will Ease Zoning, Improve Transit and Protect Long-term Residents by Brian J. Connolly
June 5, 2025
Introduction:
(The Conversation) Five of the nine candidates in Detroit’s mayoral contest debated on May 29, 2025, during the annual Mackinac Policy Conference.
When asked about outgoing Mayor Mike Duggan’s 11-year tenure, many of the candidates praised him for skillfully steering Detroit through bankruptcy and attracting new business investment.
But the candidates also saw an opportunity to do more.
“Without a doubt, we have to ensure that more investment comes back into our neighborhoods and that we’re activating our commercial corridors,” the race’s front-runner, Detroit City Council President Mary Sheffield, said.
Helping Detroit residents improve their neighborhoods will be an important task for the city’s next mayor. I do not live in Detroit, but my family lived there for generations before my grandparents joined the white flight from the city in the 1970s. And my research on housing, infrastructure and land use law offers some ideas for how the next mayor could encourage investment while at the same time improving social equity.
Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez Endorses Zohran Mamdani in New York City Mayor's Race by Jesse Zanger
June 5, 2025
Introduction:
(CBS New York via MSN) Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is endorsing Assemblyman Zohran Mamdani as her top choice in New York City's mayor race, the New York Times reported Thursday.
Ocasio-Cortez, a prominent progressive, said Mamdani "has demonstrated a real ability to put together a coalition of working-class New Yorkers that is strongest to lead the pack," the Times reported.
Mamdani placed second in a recent Marist poll of Democratic candidates with 18%, trailing behind frontrunner and former New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo at 37% in the same poll.
In 2021, Ocasio-Cortez endorsed Brad Lander for New York City comptroller. Lander is one of the candidates currently in the Democratic race for mayor, competing against Cuomo and Mamdani.
Mamdani has work to do to catch up with Cuomo in the race. The Marist poll showed Cuomo with a clear lead in four out of five boroughs:
• Brooklyn had the closest race, according to the poll, with Cuomo and Mamdani each at 25%
• In the Bronx, 50% of Bronx voters supported Cuomo, 10% supported New York City Council Speaker Adrienne Adams, and Mamdani was third with 8%.
• In Queens, Cuomo led with 48% and Mamdani was second with 15%
• In Manhattan, Cuomo led with 32%, followed by Mamdani with 21%
• On Staten Island, Cuomo leads with 48%, followed by Mamdani with 11% and former City Comptroller Scott Stringer with 10%.
New Jersey Primaries: Trump-Backed Ciattarelli Wins GOP Nod; Sherrill Wins Democratic Party Nomination by Savannah Kuchar and Phillip M. Bailey
June 10, 2025
Introduction:
(USA Today) One in a pair of states with a gubernatorial race this year, New Jersey hosted the more competitive of the two primaries Tuesday night.
Five Republicans and six Democrats vied to represent their party in the November general election.
Yet, despite the crowded fields, both races were called within an hour of polls closing. Jack Ciattarelli, who had President Donald Trump’s backing,
walked away with the win among Republicans, and Rep. Mikie Sherrill came out victorious against her fellow Democrats.
Ciattarelli has run in the last two gubernatorial races in New Jersey, coming in 3 points behind current Gov. Phil Murphy in 2021.
The outcome between Ciattarelli and Sherrill is highly anticipated even beyond the Garden State, as a potential national bellwether ahead of the 2026 midterm elections.
Democrats' Chances of Flipping Florida in Governor's Race — Polls by Andrew Stanton
June 11, 2025
Introduction:
(Newsweek) A new poll of the 2026 Florida gubernatorial race showed Republican Representative Byron Donalds with a narrow lead over former Representative David Jolly, a former Republican who is running as a Democrat. However, nearly one-third of voters remain undecided, and Jolly told Newsweek on Wednesday he feels "very good about this race."
Why It Matters
Florida zoomed toward Republicans over the past decade, with the former swing state backing President Donald Trump by double digits in last year's elections. But Democrats are hoping to make the Sunshine State competitive once again in the 2026 midterms, particularly if Trump's approval fuels a 2018-style "blue wave" next November. Historically, the president's party loses seats in the midterms.
Whoever emerges victorious in the election will have a say over key economic and social policies in Florida, home to more than 23 million residents.
What to Know
A new poll released by Victory Insights revealed how Floridians are feeling about a hypothetical matchup between Donalds and Jolly more than a year out from the primary election. A plurality of voters said they are leaning toward Donalds, but many are still up for grabs, according to the survey of 600 likely voters conducted from June 7 to June 10, 2025.
