Ukraine War Watch Thread

[Xyls]

So dumb. Shelters for what?

The only thing they will need shelters from is if Russia itself has a civil war.

[Yuli Ban]

Actually...


Mystery solved, it seems

[wjfox]

[ibm9000]

Putin's bodyguards shot & killed...

I don't know if it's true (or premature), but I cannot quite understand what that "information" has to do with The War in Ukraine.
History, maybe?

[wjfox]

[evxinvs]

So dumb. Shelters for what?

The only thing they will need shelters from is if Russia itself has a civil war.

Which is quite plausible, tbh. In fact, my subjective guestimate is that chances of civil war in Russia in the next 5 years are more than 50%. Meaning that there is more chance for some sort fo civil war to start in Russia in the next 5 years that not to.

[weatheriscool]

Lights go out in Ukraine as Russia launches "massive" strike
Source: AP

By ANDREW MELDRUM and JOANNA KOZLOWSKA

KYIV, Ukraine (AP) — Hundreds of thousands of people in central and western Ukraine woke up on Saturday to power outages and periodic bursts of gunfire, as Ukrainian air defense tried to shoot down drones and incoming missiles.

Russia has intensified its strikes on power stations, water supply systems and other key infrastructure across the country, the latest phase of the war as it nears the eight-month mark.

Ukraine’s air force said in a statement Saturday that Russia had launched “a massive missile attack” targeting “critical infrastructure,” hours after air raid sirens blared across the country. It said that it had downed 18 out of 33 cruise missiles launched from air and sea.

“Several rockets” targeting the capital were shot down on Saturday morning, Kyiv Mayor Vitali Klitschko said on the Telegram messaging service.

Read more: https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukrai ... osition_01

[caltrek]

‘Much Softer’: Is Russia Eyeing a Way Out of the Ukraine War?
October 21, 2022

Introduction:

(Al Jazeera) Russian President Vladimir Putin may be softening his hardline stance on the war in Ukraine as Moscow’s defence minister held rare talks with his United States counterpart after a spate of battlefield setbacks.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who has mediated between Russia and Ukraine, said on Friday that Putin appeared to be “much softer and more open to negotiations” with Ukraine than in the past.

“We are not without hope,” Erdogan said of the possibility of talks to end the conflict.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters on Friday that Putin has been open for negotiations “from the very beginning” and “nothing has changed”.

“If you remember, President Putin tried to initiate talks with both NATO and the United States even before the special military operation,” he said.

Read more here: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/10 ... raine-war

[caltrek]

The Time To Negotiate Peace In Ukraine is NOW
by Richard Rubenstein
October 21, 2022

Introduction:

(Counterpunch) Although some may consider it difficult or even impossible for the Ukrainians and Russians to make peace right now, this is actually a very good time for urgently needed negotiations to end the hugely destructive, increasingly dangerous Russo-Ukrainian war.

Experts in conflict resolution understand that, in many cases, the best time to undertake peace negotiations is exactly when warring parties, having stepped up their military efforts, declare that they will never negotiate with the enemy, since to do so would be to abandon the hope of victory and to surrender to an evil aggressor.

Why is this bleak environment often conducive to negotiations? Because the present situation in Ukraine is what conflict specialists call a “mutually hurting stalemate.” Each side can claim some victories, but neither side has a realistic hope of defeating the other. If the costs continue to mount for everyone, there is increasing pressure to seize on a compromise solution that offers the hope of an honorable peace.

Despite propagandistic claims by both sides in the present conflict, it is clear that a mutually hurting stalemate does exist. Ukrainian forces have made significant gains recently in the war’s southern and eastern fronts, but Kyiv’s claims that victory is on the horizon are wildly overblown. Overall, the operational warring forces are quite evenly matched. This means that the alternative to making peace is a major escalation of the conflict with costly, potentially catastrophic results.

When escalation is discussed these days, the focus is often on Russia’s nuclear arsenal and possible use of tactical nuclear weapons. President Joe Biden, for example, says that the situation is as risky as the Cuban Missile Crisis of 1962. But if he really believes that, why doesn’t he favor negotiations to end the crisis like the Kennedy-Khrushchev exchanges that produced an agreement to remove offensive missiles from both Cuba and Turkey? Why up the ante by supplying Kyiv with billions of dollars more of the world’s most advanced non-nuclear weapons?

Read more here: https://www.counterpunch.org/2022/10/2 ... e-is-now/

[Xyls]

And I ask to all of you people who are calling for "negotiations"? Negotiate what exactly?

There is no evidence that Putin is a good faith negotiator and without that there is no point in negotiations.

In fact, Putin is doing everything he can to escalate and drag on the war



CounterPunch is a weak leftist rag...the home of the delusional who call for unjust peace. That ship has sailed and will continue until Russia is forced off of Ukrainian territory.

[Xyls]

[wjfox]

[ibm9000]

...will continue until Russia is forced off of Ukrainian territory.

Are you in the trenches?
I guess it's al lot easier to urge others to kill while you are sitting in a sofa drinking tea, at home.

[wjfox]

[erowind]

.

[erowind]

.

[Xyls]

And... we're back.

[erowind]

.

[Xyls]

Could be the site is compromised or a security threat and got quarantined by the board security immediately?

[caltrek]

And I ask to all of you people who are calling for "negotiations"? Negotiate what exactly?

Negotiate a settlement which would recognize the legitimate security interests of each party.

There is no evidence that Putin is a good faith negotiator and without that there is no point in negotiations.

In fact, Putin is doing everything he can to escalate and drag on the war

I think it is a valid question as to how to negotiate with someone who is not willing to negotiate in good faith. This rests on the assumption that Putin is not interested in ending the war. I don’t feel comfortable with that assumption, although I do agree there is some evidence to that effect. It is possible that agreed upon points would incorporate a step-by-step approach by which each side could demonstrate good faith. Failure at certain steps would potentially sabotage the process, but it is worth a try.

Is Putin willing?

A good question. Continued failures on the battlefield may very well make him more willing. At any rate, Ukraine and its supporters will not know unless they try. Negotiation does not automatically mean agreement with a position that obviously leaves one in peril.

Perhaps you have been privy to communications between Russia and other parties from which the rest of us have been excluded?
If not, how can you be so sure of your conclusions?

What I do not want to hear are further reports that Ukraine and Russia were ready to reach agreement except that Ukraine was dissuaded from doing so by the West. I am referring to reports that this may have occurred in April 2022:

Prime Minister Boris Johnson used his surprise visit to Kyiv last month to pressure President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to cut off peace negotiations with Russia, even after the two sides appeared to have made tenuous progress toward a settlement to end the war.

Source: https://www.commondreams.org/news/2022/ ... ian-paper

CounterPunch is a weak leftist rag...the home of the delusional who call for unjust peace. That ship has sailed and will continue until Russia is forced off of Ukrainian territory.

Peace does not necessarily have to be "unjust." Of course, a lot depends on the positions taken by the major players.

What do you define as "Ukrainian territory"?