Ukraine War Watch Thread

[raklian]

...unless there is a clear logical (the spirit of this thread) or chronological sequence tying them together.

If by "spirit" you mean "is dedicated to", 'the backlog of arms delivery', due to the war in Ukraine, is on topic? The thread is: "Ukraine War Watch", so the war in Ukraine; and I don't think the word "spirit" was the best option, but I do think there is a lot of ambiguity.
The situation in Taiwan now, due to that backlog, belongs only to a China/Taiwan thread? Only to this one as a consequence of this war? I think it belongs to both, and I think we are going to agree to differ. We might agree about how deep into the other conflict we should go here, again, your opinion about how much or my opinion about it; as clear for you as it is for me. Censorship after, not before.

(Unless someone can guide me into the right path to the "spirit").

It's fine to briefly mention China/Taiwan how it relates to the war in Ukraine but to discuss it more than a passing mention or reference is taking it outside the scope (yes, the spirit) of this thread. From now on, if I see you post something that doesn't make the war in Ukraine the principal focus, I will remove it. This is necessary to bring the discussion back on topic. If this is what it takes to make you understand the "right path to the spirit," so be it.

[weatheriscool]

US sanctions Belarus' election officials, president's plane
Source: AP

WASHINGTON (AP) — The U.S. imposed sanctions Friday on seven Belarusian elections officials, two state-owned automotive manufacturers and President Alexander Lukashenko’s aircraft. Lukashenko, who has ruled Belarus since 1994, intensified his repression after a wave of protests in 2020 following a presidential election that the West and Belarus’ opposition denounced as a sham.

Lukashenko also has close ties to Russian President Vladimir Putin and has allowed him to station troops and weapons there to support his war in Ukraine. Those sanctioned Friday include a new slate of commissioners on Belarus’ Central Election Commission, which was originally sanctioned in December 2020.

Lukashenko accused the opposition presidential candidate, Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, of plotting to overthrow the government. This month, a Belarusian court sentenced Tsikhanouskaya, now living in exile, to 15 years in prison. Lukashenko’s aircraft, a Boeing 737 that he uses for international travel, was also designated for sanctions, which blocks its use in the U.S.

BelAZ, one of the largest manufacturers of large trucks and dump trucks in the world, and the automotive manufacturer MAZ were also sanctioned. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said in a statement that the U.S. “will continue to impose costs on the regime and those who support it for their repression of the people of Belarus” and for the Belarusian government’s support for Russia’s war.

Read more: https://apnews.com/article/belarus-ukra ... c9785d5d4d

[wjfox]

Russia-Ukraine war live: Russian assault on Bakhmut has ‘largely stalled’, says UK ministry

Sat 25 Mar 2023 08.29 GMT

Russia’s assault on the fiercely contested eastern Ukrainian city of Bakhmut has “largely stalled”, the UK’s Ministry of Defence says.

It said in its latest intelligence update:

This is likely primarily a result of extreme attrition of the Russian force. Ukraine has also suffered heavy casualties during its defence.

The ministry said Russia’s situation had likely been worsened by “tensions between the Russian ministry of defence and Wagner Group, both of whom contribute troops in the sector”.

The battle over Bakhmut has been the longest and bloodiest of Russia’s war in Ukraine.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/ ... ed-says-uk

[wjfox]

Ukraine war: Germany sends much-awaited Leopard tanks

8 hours ago

The first shipment of Leopard 2 tanks from Germany has been sent to Ukraine, the German defence ministry says.

Eighteen cutting-edge main battle tanks were delivered after Ukrainian crews were trained to use them.

Defence Minister Boris Pistorius said he was sure the tanks could "make a decisive contribution" on the frontlines of the war.

Challenger 2 tanks from the UK have also arrived, according to reports from Ukraine.

Ukraine has been calling for more modern vehicles and weapon systems for months to help fight Russia's invasion.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-65095126

[wjfox]

[weatheriscool]

Notorious Russian Colonel Who Oversaw Slaughter Of Hundreds Of Ukrainian Troops Is Found Dead

Russian Colonel Dmitry Lisitsky, who was responsible for war crimes in Ukraine, was found dead with a gunshot wound in his home city.

The cause of his death is disputed, with conflicting reports from the Ukrainian and Russian sides – one side claims it was an elimination while the other is calling it suicide, respectively.

Yuri Butusov, who was the first to report the news to the Western world, claimed that Lisitsky was “liquidated” as retribution for the 2014 ‘Ilovaisk cauldron’ massacre in the Donetsk region, where more than 350 Ukrainian servicemen were killed after pro-Russian troops mowed down retreating Ukrainians during a ceasefire. The man responsible for the carnage was Lisitsky.

Putin’s reaction to the massacre was to give the commander of Russia’s first Airborne Assault Battalion of the 247th Airborne Assault Regiment the nation’s highest medal, “the Hero of Russia.”

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/no ... r-AA19dZz5

[ibm9000]

Reznikov writes that artillery plays a “crucial role in eliminating the enemy’s military power”. On average Ukraine was firing 110,000 155mm-calibre shells a month, he says — a quarter of the amount used by Russia.

Is the Ukrainian MoD saying that Russia is eliminating as much as three times more of Ukrainian military power?
Is that how Ukraine has been winning the war so far?

[caltrek]

Reznikov writes that artillery plays a “crucial role in eliminating the enemy’s military power”. On average Ukraine was firing 110,000 155mm-calibre shells a month, he says — a quarter of the amount used by Russia.

Is the Ukrainian MoD saying that Russia is eliminating as much as three times more of Ukrainian military power?
Is that how Ukraine has been winning the war so far?

This is what happens when one takes things out of context. Lost in this discussion is an assessment of effectiveness of artillery. Maybe if the Russian artillery concentrated its fire on military objectives, it would be more effective in "eliminating the enemy's military power." Instead, one can infer that perhaps the Ukrainian artillery was simply more effective at targeting military operations. If you go back several pages, there is a discussion of both the relative accuracy of Ukrainian weapons, as well as the striking of non-military targets by Russian forces. Whether that is what Reznikov is actually trying to infer depends upon the context of his statement. Out of that context, the question becomes unanswerable. In the context of this thread, it can be answered in the way that I suppose.

[ibm9000]

...out of context.

The context is that Russia still owns 100.000sqkm of Ukrainian soil, that could be a hint about how effective the artillery of U. actually is (after abandoning a lot more).
Maybe R. has enough ammo to shell other targets (it is a war, everything is a military target). One can infer that perhaps we keep repeating that whatever U. does is a success and that every single R. action is a failure, (but for our advice to U. about aiming before firing). A discussion about accuracy while the war is still going on is going to be a lot of propaganda, it has to be (any R. invited, to compare numbers?).
True, maybe Reznikov is just crying wolf, maybe just blaming the West, maybe is just another official statement (we got a few of those, didn't we?).
True again, it can be answered in so many ways... specially if in the context of this thread we are trying to sell that R. lost the war (one year ago) and that U. is about to win it (with the next offensive) or the other way around.

[ibm9000]

Ukraine is getting fuel trucks and bridging equipment.

An educated guess would be that the Army of U. already had that.

[caltrek]

...out of context.

...
Maybe R. has enough ammo to shell other targets (it is a war, everything is a military target)....

Bullshit. Children under the age of eight are "military targets"?

Hospitals that tend to the sick and wounded regardless of cause or political affiliation are "military targets" ?

Civilian housing away from the front are "military targets"?

Only the most twisted and cynical of interpretations can conclude that these are "military targets." Another example of gross false equivalencies at work.

[wjfox]

[caltrek]

U.S. Fire Power May Have Been Weakened By Arms Flow To Ukraine
by Thalif Dean
April 1, 2023

Introduction:

(Eurasia Review) The uninterrupted flow of US weapons to Ukraine—running into billions of dollars—may ultimately have a negative fallout on American military security and its fire power. So far, US economic and military aid to Ukraine, along with security assistance, is estimated at about 100 billion dollars.

According to a March 25 report in the New York Times, it could take at least five to 13 years to replace some of these weapons in the US military inventories.

The Times quoted a spokesman for Raytheon, one of the major arms manufacturers in the US, who warned that replacing the Stinger missile stock alone “would take 13 years of production at recent capacity levels to replace them”.

“It has sent so many Javelin missiles that it would take five years at last year’s rates to replace them.”

If a large-scale war broke out with China, “within one week the US would run out of so-called long-range anti-ship missiles”, a vital weapon in any engagement with China, according to a series of war-game exercises conducted by the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).

Read more here: https://www.eurasiareview.com/01042023 ... ine-oped/

[wjfox]

[ibm9000]

Bullshit.

That is a very convincing argument.

Bakers. The army needs bread, bakeries, mills, roads, lorries, every petrol station, every garage....
Shoe makers... the same.

You fight the country, that is war; and, afterwards, you call it collateral damage (not in WW2).

(Do you have anything against 9 years old children?)

[caltrek]

Bullshit.

That is a very convincing argument.

Bakers. The army needs bread, bakeries, mills, roads, lorries, every petrol station, every garage....
Shoe makers... the same.

...

Bakers and shoemakers are a subcategory of the general category known as civilians. That civilians in their capacity as civilians may support a war effort does not mean that they are excluded from the category of being civilian. It is in that capacity that I referred to them as “non-military targets.”

This has applicability in the determination of war crimes which includes "participation in and knowledge of a widespread or systematic attack against a civilian population," and "the multiple commission of [such] acts...against any civilian population, pursuant to or in furtherance of a State or organizational policy to commit such attack" (See https://www.hrw.org/reports/2002/isrl-p ... 02-04.htm )

Even if you reject the notion of war crimes, it is cynical to argue that “civilian” is equivalent to “military person” and therefore qualifies as a “military target” as a way of dealing with the argument concerning war crimes.

Aside from moral or ethical concerns, it is a sorry military officer indeed who cannot distinguish between a heavily armed “soldier” and an apparently unarmed “civilian”. It would be like “there are a group of bakers over there and in the other direction a group of armed enemy soldiers. I don’t know which poses the most imminent threat since I have been taught ‘civilians’ and ‘military personnel’ are equivalent to each other.”
Clearly, a refusal to acknowledge differences is absurd.

(Do you have anything against 9 years old children?)

No. Do you?

You seem to be the one to argue that 9-year-olds are legitimate “military” targets.

There are a near infinite other types of persons, places or things that I could have listed as being non-military targets. That I list two or three by way of example should not mean that I need to include in my list all types of persons, places or things that also belong in the category.

[Xyls]

Speaking of legitimate military targets:



Remember this guy:

Yeah, well he got his just deserts:



Love that for him. Hopefully, we see more Russian officials follow suit.

[Xyls]

I should mention Ukraine is denying any involvement with his assassination. Honestly, I believe them. Considering how Putin is trying to kill off the Wagner group in Bakhmut this is likely an internal operation by the Kremlin to further eliminate Wagner supporters.



People may suggest this is Ukraine, but I think the call is coming from within the house on this one.

[ibm9000]

There are a near infinite other...

...ways to attack the logistics of the enemy army.

[ibm9000]

Yeah, well he got his just deserts:

Well, it looks like this thread supports terrorism. (Against civilians, someone could say).

It is indeed surprising that in an official statement, one more, Ukraine denies its participation.