Ukraine War Watch Thread

[ibm9000]

blocked_lossesvsu/17963
Ukrainian tank (T-62?) hit by Russia.

Is that on topic? Yes.
Is that relevant? No. One tank destroyed in a war; in this war.

Everyone reading this thread has a certain knowledge of armoured warfare? What about Ukraine and Russia military tradition, where is that coming from? Soviet-era tanks? Soviet tank construction and doctrine of use? Anti-tank defences, doctrine and the use of missiles and drones?
Is context relevant?

[caltrek]

Curious, what does people running to Canada to avoid being forced to go to Vietnam back in the day have to do with Russia invading Ukraine today?

People dodging conscription ---> Ukraine will lose like America in VN. However, this overlooks the fact that Ukraine is facing an existential crisis, as opposed to America which was literally sending youth to die for a foreign junta.

That "People dodging conscription ---> Ukraine will lose like America in VN" is a very far-fetched conclusion. Try "it's a war, people will dodge conscription, like in Russia"; existential threat or not.
My conclusion is that it is just another war, nothing new here; not even drones, not even glide bombs (unconfirmed reports of Russia using the 1.5tn glide bomb).

Edit:
3tn, 3.000kg, not pounds.

"just another war, nothing new here; not even drones, not even glide bombs."

Most of us at one level or another recognize the fallacy in such a conclusion. Following that logic results in all sorts of false equivalencies. Wars fought for legitimate defensive purposes are fundamentally different form wars fought to expand an empire. It may be that dodging conscription is an option in both cases. Still, dodging conscription often means fleeing the country one lives in. A choice that in the case of the Ukraine is forced upon young men by an invading army. For Russians, it is matter of whether they participate in efforts to expand an empire.

The problem with fleeing in the face of an ongoing invasion is that it may not end there. One may find oneself in a country that is in turn invaded by that same invading force. Alternatively, one my find oneself in a country where the economy is adversely affected due to the ongoing war.

You like to indulge in historical analogies. Look at World War II. One can imagine residents fleeing to Poland in the early stages only to find Hitler's army invading Poland. One could then flee to Russia only to find Russia invaded by the Nazis. At some point, one can find that there is no-where else to run.

Today, Putin and his allies in North Korea and China seek nothing less than world domination. One can flee and then benefit from the efforts of others to contain the spread of that domination. I would argue that there is a certain cynicism in that approach.

Of course, there is also a certain cynicism in letting Ukrainians do all the fighting while we merely supply arms. Still, in that case there is a certain voluntarism on the part of Ukrainians. Being on the front lines they understand the likely consequences of capitulation.

Philosophically, one can take the anarchist position, that all governments are equally worthy of condemnation. In the real world, there are differences. Perhaps you don't care about those differences. For the rest of us that form of absolute pacifism is a bridge too far. We know that in the end there may be no more places to run. At that point the argument becomes how best to oppose the aggression in question.

[weatheriscool]

Ukraine says it destroyed Russian drone base

Source: BBC

23 June 2024, 12:18 BST

Ukraine says satellite pictures show the destruction of a Russian warehouse used to launch Iranian-made drones and to train cadets.

The photos - posted by Ukraine's Navy - follow reports of a massive explosion near a Russian airfield in the southern region of Krasnodar.

Moscow has yet to comment on the reports, but did say it has shot down a number of drones in region overnight on Friday.

Navy officials in Kyiv said a number of training instructors and cadets learning to operate the Iranian-made Shahed drones were killed by the attack, which they said happened on Friday night.

Read more: https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c511ny02qjwo

[caltrek]

^^^One may object to taking the fight to Russian territory and still be consistent with my argument in the preceding post. This can fall under the category of "how best to oppose the aggression."

Actions on Russian territory may have the effect of heightening fear of aggression from outside the country. It may anger many Russians who would otherwise support a cease fire. So, it may backfire.

There is also the problem of unwanted escalation. It is bad enough that the war is being waged in the Ukraine without seeing it expand beyond the pre-invasion borders of that country.

[ibm9000]

People dodging conscription ---> Ukraine will lose like America in VN. However, this overlooks the fact that Ukraine is facing an existential crisis, as opposed to America which was literally sending youth to die for a foreign junta.

That "People dodging conscription ---> Ukraine will lose like America in VN" is a very far-fetched conclusion. Try "it's a war, people will dodge conscription, like in Russia"; existential threat or not.
My conclusion is that it is just another war, nothing new here; not even drones, not even glide bombs (unconfirmed reports of Russia using the 1.5tn glide bomb).
Edit:
3tn, 3.000kg, not pounds.

"just another war, nothing new here; not even drones, not even glide bombs."
Most of us at one level or another recognize the fallacy in such a conclusion. Following that logic results in all sorts of false equivalencies. Wars fought for legitimate defensive purposes are fundamentally different form wars fought to expand an empire. It may be that dodging conscription is an option in both cases. Still, dodging conscription often means fleeing the country one lives in. A choice that in the case of the Ukraine is forced upon young men by an invading army. For Russians, it is matter of whether they participate in efforts to expand an empire.
The problem with fleeing in the face of an ongoing invasion is that it may not end there. One may find oneself in a country that is in turn invaded by that same invading force. Alternatively, one my find oneself in a country where the economy is adversely affected due to the ongoing war.
You like to indulge in historical analogies. Look at World War II. One can imagine residents fleeing to Poland in the early stages only to find Hitler's army invading Poland. One could then flee to Russia only to find Russia invaded by the Nazis. At some point, one can find that there is no-where else to run.
Today, Putin and his allies in North Korea and China seek nothing less than world domination. One can flee and then benefit from the efforts of others to contain the spread of that domination. I would argue that there is a certain cynicism in that approach.
Of course, there is also a certain cynicism in letting Ukrainians do all the fighting while we merely supply arms. Still, in that case there is a certain voluntarism on the part of Ukrainians. Being on the front lines they understand the likely consequences of capitulation.
Philosophically, one can take the anarchist position, that all governments are equally worthy of condemnation. In the real world, there are differences. Perhaps you don't care about those differences. For the rest of us that form of absolute pacifism is a bridge too far. We know that in the end there may be no more places to run. At that point the argument becomes how best to oppose the aggression in question.

Well, I was talking from a military point of view (glide bombs?). If we are going to get into Philosophy (off topic?, the good and evil of war?, or only of this war?)... I need a paint of Guinness.

[ibm9000]

There are more than a few opinions about the misuse and/or usefulness of the FAB-3000. It would be great against a power plant, but there is the issue of range and what aircraft can use it. On the front line, one, or two, FAB-500 can do the job with less hassle.

Of course, we all like new toys and silver bullets. We already had a few of them in this war.

[weatheriscool]

[firestar464]

More on that by Business Insider:

https://archive.ph/6HofD

It's worth noting that we don't know if they'll actually be fighting yet.

[ibm9000]

US and Israel in talks to send Patriots from Israel to Ukraine; up to 8 systems. It seems they have to be refurbished first.

[weatheriscool]

[ibm9000]

The number is 38.

38 Russian glide bombs fell on Russia. It is a pity the article was not providing the number (thousands) of bombs dropped, nor the time period (Edit: those 38 in 12 months); nor the failure rate of western glide bombs, just to compare.

Is Russia opening a new front at Toretsk?

"Ukraine told it is too corrupt to join NATO".
thetorygraph

Newsweek is reporting a failed attack, as far as I can read.

[ibm9000]

Chasiv Yar, Ocheretino and Toretsk. More, different, maps.

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https://premium.globalsecurity.org/jhtm ... 704-04.jpg|||

https://premium.globalsecurity.org/jhtm ... 704-03.jpg|||

[weatheriscool]

NATO leaders will vow to pour weapons into Ukraine for another year

Source: ABC News/AP

July 5, 2024, 8:40 AM

BRUSSELS -- NATO leaders plan to pledge next week to keep pouring arms and ammunition into Ukraine at current levels for at least another year, hoping to reassure the war-ravaged country of their ongoing support and show Russian President Vladimir Putin that they will not walk away.

U.S. President Joe Biden and his counterparts meet in Washington for a three-day summit beginning Tuesday to mark the military alliance’s 75th anniversary as Russian troops press their advantage along Ukraine’s eastern front in the third year of the war.

Speaking to reporters on Friday, NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said NATO's 32 member countries have been spending around 40 billion euros ($43 billion) each year on military equipment for Ukraine since the war began in February 2022, and that this should be “a minimum baseline” going forward. “I expect allies will decide at the summit to sustain this level within the next year,” Stoltenberg said. He said the amount would be shared among nations based on their economic growth, and that the leaders will review the figure when they meet again in 2025.

NATO is desperate to do more for Ukraine but is struggling to find new ways. Already, NATO allies provide 99% of the military support it gets. Soon, the alliance will manage equipment deliveries. But two red lines remain: no NATO membership until the war is over, and no NATO boots on the ground there.

Read more: https://abcnews.go.com/International/wi ... -111690670

[ibm9000]

(Ukraine’s entire government budget for 2024 is $87bn (about half of it is spent on defence), but its expected tax revenues come to only $46bn.)

Campaigners are urging Britain’s new Labour government to prevent Ukraine being sued in the UK courts if the country defaults on its debts to private creditors.
The organisation Debt Justice said a two-year suspension of Ukraine’s debt payments was scheduled to expire on 1 August, and that action was needed to protect Kyiv from the possibility of legal action from its creditors.
Ukraine is in negotiations with bondholders and is seeking a debt writedown of 60% on the $24bn (£18.7bn) it owes to private creditors. Bondholders – which include major investment groups such as BlackRock, Pimco, Fidelity and AllianceBernstein – have said they are willing to take a 20% loss.
Ukraine’s official bilateral creditors, including the UK, have agreed to continue suspending Kyiv’s debt payments until 2027, but there has been no agreement to extend the arrangement with private creditors. The relief offered by private creditors is worth around 12% of Ukraine’s annual national output (GDP).
Unless a deal is struck or an extension to the two-year moratorium is agreed by the end of this month, Ukraine will formally default on its debts in September.
theguardian

Winning the war?

[weatheriscool]

[ibm9000]

Where are the (estimates of) Ukrainian casualties to provide context?

[ibm9000]

Now Sotnitskiy Kazachok.
If Russia keeps attacking there, Ukraine will have to send reinforcements there too.

[weatheriscool]

Russian missiles hit a children's hospital in the Ukrainian capital and kill at least 20

Source: yahoo.com



HANNA ARHIROVA and ILLIA NOVIKOV
Updated Mon, July 8, 2024 at 4:50 AM CDT·2 min read

KYIV, Ukraine (AP) — Russian missiles killed at least seven people and struck a children’s hospital in the Ukarinian capital, Kyiv, Monday, while another attack in the central Ukrainian city of Kryvyi Rih killed at least 10.

The Russian barrage targeted five Ukrainian cities with more than 40 missiles of different types, hitting apartment buildings and public infrastructure, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said in a social media post.

At least 20 people were killed and around 50 people were injured across the country in the Monday morning onslaught, Interior Minister Ihor Klymenko said. In Kryvyi Rih, 31 people were injured in addition to the 10 deaths in what the head of city administration, Oleksandr Vilkul, said was a massive missile attack. Explosions were also reported by local officials in Ukraine’s central Dnipropetrovsk region.

At the Okhmatdyt children’s hospital in Kyiv, rescuers were searching for people under the rubble of a partially collapsed wing of the facility, Zelenskyy said, adding that the number of casualties was not yet known.

"It is very important that the world should not be silent about it now and that everyone should see what Russia is and what it is doing,” Zelenskyy said on social media.

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Read more: https://www.yahoo.com/news/russia-uses- ... p_catchall

[ibm9000]

Collateral damage in a war? Where are the news?

UN assessment suggests Ukraine's largest children's hospital was hit by Russian missile
A deadly strike on Kyiv’s Ohmatdyt children’s hospital – Ukraine’s biggest paediatrics facility – was likely caused by a direct hit from a Russian missile, the head of the UN’s human rights monitoring mission said.
Danielle Bell, head of mission for the UN human rights monitoring mission in Ukraine, said:
Analysis of the video footage and an assessment made at the incident site indicates a high likelihood that the children’s hospital suffered a direct hit rather than receiving damage due to an intercepted weapon system.
She said her team, who visited the site on Monday, could not make a final determination but that the missile appeared to have been launched by the Russian Federation.
Russian foreign ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova said earlier today that it was a Nasams surface-to-air missile launched by Ukraine that hit the children’s hospital in Kyiv on Monday. Ukrainian authorities said that Russia struck the hospital with a Kh-101 Kalibr missile.
theguardian

It seems that, at the same time, 6 missiles hit a shells factory less than 2km away.
Ukraine hit a (Ukrainian) building with a(n) (Ukrainian) SAM before.

I cannot see anything new here.


Nothing new from Sonitskii, maybe it was just to try to trigger a reaction. They can move to Kozachanske, start towards Odnorobivka along the rail line or follow the creek to Basove; the best option, I think. A long way to Zolochiv, anyway.
Ukraine would need troops at Perovske/Oleksandrivka, Muravske and Udy... because it is always so easy to be an armchair general.

https://premium.globalsecurity.org/jhtm ... 706-02.jpg|||

[ibm9000]

$43bn next year, $40bn this year. Ukraine still needs more help just to balance its own budget.

“Ukraine’s future is in NATO” ... “when Allies agree and conditions are met”.