Ukraine War Watch Thread

[wjfox]

As for Ukraine, the Ukranian government integrated a neo-nazi partisan militia called the Azov Battalion ~12,000 strong into their national guard. They're known for war crimes by the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights such as mass looting, unlawful detention, torture and rape. fun They've been officially supported by the Ukrainian Government since at least 2014.

https://www.wikiwand.com/en/Azov_Battalion

None of that justifies Russia's invasion.

International law prohibits any use or threat of force against another state, unless agreed by a United Nations Security Council resolution.

[erowind]

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[erowind]

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[wjfox]

BBC now reporting that Putin has ordered Russia's nuclear deterrent forces "on high alert".

[weatheriscool]

Ukrainian minister says Russia lost some 4,300 men in invasion
Source: Reuters

(Reuters) – Russian forces have lost about 4,300 servicemen during their invasion of Ukraine, Deputy Defence Minister Hanna Malyar said on Sunday, adding however that the number was being clarified.

She also said on her Facebook page that Russian troops lost about 146 tanks, 27 aircraft and 26 helicopters.

Read more: https://wkzo.com/2022/02/27/ukrainian-m ... -invasion/

[wjfox]

[raklian]

Jesus!

[caltrek]

Erowind: I never said that the existence of the Azov Battalion did or did not justify Russia's invasion. If one were to take the time to read my post in full again they would notice I was simply providing factual context, with a sarcastic tone of course, a given in context of fascism--with the desire to draw attention to the ill policy of both governments, as any honest analysis should do, but, nothing said was false.

I can't speak for W.J. Fox as to exactly whether he was accusing you of trying to justify Russia's invasion. I can point out that "de-Nazification" is indeed one of the justifications given by Putin. (See my earlier link to two of Putin's speeches).

Earlier in the thread, I mentioned Hannah Arendt and here observations concerning the emergence of Pan-Slavism and Pan-Germanism in the lead up to World War II. I think Putin is very much influenced by these past Pan-Slavic impulses. For its part, the Ukraine may also have some vestigial Pan-Germanic influences that your post highlighted and identified as fascism. From an outsider's perspective offered by somebody such as yourself, it may very well be nonsensical for one such "fascist" government to invade the other as your analogy of fascist Italy invading Nazi Germany suggests. From the inside, it may very well be perceived as a point of existential survival. What we may see as paranoia leading to excess aggression may be perceived on the inside as legitimate self-defense. I should add the usual qualification that to explain is not to excuse.

Edit: I should also add that anti-semitism was a feature of both the Pan-Slavic and Pan-German movements.

[weatheriscool]

EU to close airspace to Russia, curb media, target Belarus
Source: Reuters

BRUSSELS (Reuters) - The European Union will tighten sanctions on Russia, target Russian ally Belarus with measures and fund weapons for Ukraine to help it defend itself against Russia's invasion, top EU officials said on Sunday.

"For the first time ever, the European Union will finance the purchase and delivery of weapons and other equipment to a country that is under attack, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said.

She said the European Union would close its airspace to Russian aircraft, including the private jets of Russian oligarchs.

The bloc will ban Russian state-owned television network Russia Today and news agency Sputnik. Von der Leyen said this was to render them unable to "spread their lies to justify Putin's war and to sow division in our Union".

Read more: https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/eu ... ar-AAUnvmD

[Xyls]

Russia has finally surrounded Kyiv according to accounts...



The big question is what does Russia do? Do they attempt to turn this into a prolonged siege of the city? This may not work as popular support for the effort is collapsing in both Belarus and Russia. However, it would probably be the only way to break morale...

Do they immediately attempt to take the city? This would likely be a bloodbath and massive casualties, with no guarantee they would win. In fact, based on what has happened in Kharkiv last night, they would likely be repelled... which could allow Ukraine to break out of the city as was done at Kharkiv and Sumy...

Russia's southern offensive is also slowing down... Kherson is putting up major resistance and with negotiations at the Belarus border tomorrow (although I don't know how serious these are...) there may not be time even if Russia is starting to get stuff together. I wouldn't be surprised if Russia goes all in on Mariupol to try to make a land bridge in Southern Ukraine before some sort of saving face peace agreement is made...

[caltrek]

Putin’s Claim to Rid Ukraine of Nazis is Especially Absurd Given Its History
by Jeffrey Veidlinger
February 26, 2022

https://theconversation.com/putins-clai ... ory-177959

Introduction:

(The Conversation) Russian President Vladimir Putin justifies his war on Ukraine as a peacekeeping mission, a “denazification” of the country.

In his address to the Russian people on Feb. 24, 2022, Putin said the purpose was to “protect people” who had been “subjected to bullying and genocide … for the last eight years. And for this we will strive for the demilitarization and denazification of Ukraine.”

The victims of the genocide claimed by Putin are Russian speakers; the Nazis he referenced are the elected representatives of the Ukrainian people. While Ukraine’s new language laws have upset some minorities, independent news media have uncovered no evidence of genocide against Russian speakers. In fact, as the historian Timothy Snyder has pointed out, Russian speakers have more freedom in Ukraine than they have in Russia, where Putin’s authoritarian government routinely suppresses political dissent. And while far right groups have been growing in Ukraine, their electoral power is limited.

As the author of a recently published book on anti-Jewish violence in Ukraine and a historian of the Holocaust, I know why the accusations of Nazism and genocide have resonance in Ukraine. But I also understand that despite episodic violence, Ukrainian history offers a model of tolerance and democratic government.

Conclusion:

Putin’s selective telling of the past exaggerates the legacy of Nazism in Ukraine while ignoring the state’s historic struggle for pluralism and democracy. There is a good reason for this: he fears democracy more than he fears Nazism.*

*https://thehill.com/opinion/internation ... -democracy

[Xyls]

It also appears that one of the reasons Ukraine is doing so well against Russia may be the Turkish drones they have acquired.

https://www.fxempire.com/news/article/u ... sia-914689

Those of you may remember that the Bayraktars were used to monsterous effect during the Nagorno-Karabkh War back in 2020, and are showing how important they are going to be for 21st century warfare going forward. This Ukrainian conflict may also strengthen the perceptions of Turkey as a major power especially as Turkey has intervened in multiple countries and is becoming a major arms technology developer and exporter.

I actually wouldn't be surprised if some sort of Ukrainian alliance with Turkey comes out of this affair... Turkey is already tenuous with NATO and has been increasingly looking for a more in-between position in recent years... having Ukraine as an ally would allow them to boost their domestic military economy and relations... and creating a buffer block between the Russian sphere of influence and NATO.

[caltrek]

Putin’s Claims that Ukraine is Committing Genocide are Baseless, but not Unprecedented
by Alexander Hinton
February 25, 2022

https://theconversation.com/putins-clai ... ted-177511

Introduction:

(The Conversation) Ideas abound about why Russian President Vladimir Putin attacked Ukraine on Feb. 24, 2022. But Putin himself offered one unexpected – and unfounded – justification on Feb. 23 during a televised speech.

“The purpose of this operation is to protect people who, for eight years now, have been facing humiliation and genocide perpetrated by the Kyiv regime,” Putin said.

Putin alleges that Ukraine is targeting – and killing – Russian speakers in eastern Ukraine, where Russian-backed rebel separatists have been fighting the Ukrainian government since 2014.

As a scholar who studies genocide, I found that Putin’s claim was nothing new. World leaders have been playing politics with the term genocide since a Polish-Jewish lawyer, Raphael Lemkin, coined the the word in 1944.

This makes it all the more important to understand what genocide actually means and when humanitarian intervention to prevent genocide is legitimate.

[weatheriscool]

Russia Has Lost About 4,300 Men During Invasion, Claims Ukraine
Source: NDTV

Kyiv: Russian forces have lost about 4,300 servicemen during their invasion of Ukraine, Deputy Defence Minister Hanna Malyar said on Sunday, adding however that the number was being clarified.
She also said on her Facebook page that Russian troops lost about 146 tanks, 27 aircraft and 26 helicopters.

Read more: https://www.ndtv.com/world-news/russia- ... ne-2792700

[caltrek]

Russian Control of Chernobyl Invites Speculation and Uncertainty
by Susan D’Agostino
February 25, 2022

https://thebulletin.org/2022/02/russian ... certainty/

Introduction:

(Bulletin of Atomic Scientists) Yesterday, Russian forces seized control of the defunct Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant, the still-radioactive site of the world’s worst nuclear disaster. The plant, along with the approximately 1,000-square mile radius around it known as the Chernobyl Exclusion Zone, supports ongoing work focused on nuclear waste management and storage. The takeover was part of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s multi-pronged assault on Ukraine, which began on Thursday.

Though the International Atomic Energy Agency, a United Nations watchdog, reported that there have been “no casualties nor destruction” at Chernobyl, experts and the public are now at work attempting to understand the potential risks posed by the takeover. While some offer measured responses concerning the potential for human and ecological disaster, others express alarm. Many posit theories for why Russia sought to seize control of Chernobyl, including using the site as a base, for a potential act of terrorism, or for the symbolic “win” it may represent.

Igor Konashenkov, a spokesperson for Russian Military of Defense, said in a statement that the Ukrainian staff “continues to service the facilities in a routine mode and monitor the radioactive situation.” Konashenkov did not indicate that Russian soldiers were holding the workers hostage, as Kateryna Pavlova, Chernobyl’s Head of the Department for International Cooperation and Public Relations, told the Bulletin yesterday.

“The most dangerous part is that we lost control,” Pavlova said. “Some part of the staff from Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant and National Guard have been kidnapped. They can’t connect. They can’t report.

[Cyber_Rebel]

What a Russian psychopath has unleashed upon the world.

[Xyls]

Things are going very wrong for Putin:

https://www.economist.com/leaders/2022/ ... ry.content

He might still take Kyiv or Kharkiv but it will be at major damage to himself. And it is highly unlikely he will be able to hold the cities, unless he goes about systematically destroying them so that his forces won't get whittled down in intense urban warfare...

By then what is the point of all this though... a war of aggression to destroy Ukrainian cities? This is not viewed by the Ukrainian population as a war of liberation... much of the civilian population is willing to take up arms against them... let along how his own domestic population views all this...

What is the end game? Where do you put a puppet government without it getting immediately overthrown like in Afghanistan? None of this seems feasible in the slightest...

[Xyls]

What a Russian psychopath has unleashed upon the world.

Apparently this is a strike upon a Ukranian munitions storage. Not a nuke.

[Xyls]

State of the war thus far:

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgr ... ebruary-27

Basically, as we have analyzed. Russia is fucking up royally in the North, however the advance from Crimea to Donbass is currently the biggest threat to Ukraine. Those forces are now at Mariupol, and Russia will have a land bridge to Crimea which will be hard for Ukraine to reclaim as Russia has massive advantages in warfare outside urban combat... Expect Mariupol to be the main battle in the coming days. If the Ukrainians somehow repel the attack on Mariupol then Russia is going to have some very hard decisions to make.

Ukraine also needs to consider food and other supplies to it's civilians or evacuate them as soon as possible from the front line cities (especially Kharkiv and Sumy). There are rumours that Belarus is actually planning to declare war and mobilize it's army against Ukraine as well. Instead of at Kyiv they could target Lviv... this would be a major escalation and this is an attempt to cut off supplies to the country... I am very skeptical of these supposed "discussions" on the Belarus border tomorrow and I think Ukraine would be wise to call them off... or use them to stall while they plan defence of their northern border with Belarus.



In my view Ukraine is in trouble with the Belarus advance and the southern landbridge that is forming. Luckily, the Russian forces in the south have been unable to take Kherson and really can't defend their positions on the Western side of the Dniper river in the South. However, Ukraine needs to consider if it wants to withdraw from it's frontline in Donbass as they could get surrounded from the southern offensive and instead defend at Dnipro and Zaporizhie, which might be much more sustainable than the current situation. Although this leaves Kharkiv in a precarious situation...

The top priority of Ukraine right now would have to be bringing the eastward advancing Russian forces coming out of Crimea to a halt. I don't know if this can be achieved at Mariupol or not as their situation is less than ideal and could lead to major Ukrainian losses...

[weatheriscool]

BP says it will 'exit' its $14 billion stake in Russian oil giant Rosneft over Kremlin invasion of U
Source: Washington Post

British oil giant BP said it is “exiting” its $14 billion stake in Russian oil giant Rosneft over Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine, in one of the biggest signs yet that the Western business world is cutting ties over the Kremlin’s invasion of Ukraine.

BP, also said its current and former chief executives — Bernard Looney and Bob Dudley — have resigned from the Russian company’s board immediatly.
BP has operated in Russia for over 30 years, working with brilliant Russian colleagues. However, this military action represents a fundamental change. It has led the BP board to conclude, after a thorough process, that our involvement with Rosneft, a state-owned enterprise, simply cannot continue,” BP chair Helge Lund said in a statement Sunday.

The announcement marks the end of one of the Western world’s largest ever investments in Russia, seen as so politically important that Russian President Vladimir Putin and then British Prime Minister Tony Blair personally attended a signing ceremony for a key part of the deal in 2003. The company is already essentially erasing Rosneft from its books, saying
it will no longer recognize a share of Rosneft’s net income, production or reserves.

It is the latest sign of the crushing financial punishment Western nations are meting out over Russia’s attack, including blocking Moscow’s access to the central-bank reserves it holds in the West and cutting Russian banks’ access to global financial networks.

Read more: https://www.washingtonpost.com/business ... t-ukraine/