Nuclear Weapons Watch Thread

[Vakanai]

How Nuclear War Would Affect Earth Today
July 7, 2022

Introduction:

(EurekAlert) Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has brought the threat of nuclear warfare to the forefront. But how would modern nuclear detonations impact the world today? A new study published today provides stark information on the global impact of nuclear war.

The study’s lead author LSU Department of Oceanography & Coastal Sciences Assistant Professor Cheryl Harrison and coauthors ran multiple computer simulations to study the impacts of regional and larger scale nuclear warfare on the Earth’s systems given today’s nuclear warfare capabilities. Nine nations currently control more than 13,000 nuclear weapons in the world, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute.

In all of the researchers’ simulated scenarios, nuclear firestorms would release soot and smoke into the upper atmosphere that would block out the Sun resulting in crop failure around the world. In the first month following nuclear detonation, average global temperatures would plunge by about 13 degrees Fahrenheit, a larger temperature change than in the last Ice Age.

“It doesn’t matter who is bombing whom. It can be India and Pakistan or NATO and Russia. Once the smoke is released into the upper atmosphere, it spreads globally and affects everyone,” said Harrison, who has a joint appointment at the LSU Center for Computation & Technology.

Ocean temperatures would drop quickly and would not return to their pre-war state even after the smoke clears. As the planet gets colder, sea ice expands by more than 6 million square miles and 6 feet deep in some basins blocking major ports including Beijing’s Port of Tianjin, Copenhagen and St. Petersburg. The sea ice would spread into normally ice-free coastal regions blocking shipping across the Northern Hemisphere making it difficult to get food and supplies into some cities such as Shanghai, where ships are not prepared to face sea ice.

Read more here: https://www.eurekalert.org/news-releases/958087

From the study:

(AGU Advances) In all scenarios, the ocean cools rapidly but does not return to the pre-war state when the smoke clears. Instead, the ocean takes many decades to return to normal, and some parts of the ocean would likely stay in the new state for hundreds of years or longer. When the cooling event ends, Arctic sea ice is left in a new state, a sort of “Nuclear Little Ice Age.” Marine ecosystems would be highly disrupted by both the initial perturbation and the resulting new ocean state, resulting in impacts to ecosystem services worldwide, lasting for decades. This study underscores the danger of nuclear war and the long-term impacts to humans and our environment.

Read more here: https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.co ... 1AV000610

Well, least we now know the most probable way humanity will finally combat global warming.

[caltrek]

America's $1.4 Trillion So-Called "National Security" Budget Makes Us Less Safe—Not More
by William Hartung
July 7, 2022

Extract:

(Common Dreams) The most concerning part of the new budget proposal, however, may be the administration’s support for a three-decades long, $1.7-trillion plan to build a new generation of nuclear-armed missiles (as well, of course, as new warheads to go with them), bombers, and submarines. As the organization Global Zero has pointed out, the United States could dissuade any country from launching an atomic attack against it with far fewer weapons than are contained in its current nuclear arsenal. There’s simply no need for a costly — and risky — nuclear weapons “modernization” plan. Sadly, it’s guaranteed to help fuel a continuing global nuclear arms race, while entrenching nuclear weapons as a mainstay of national security policy for decades to come. (Wouldn’t those decades be so much better spent working to eliminate nuclear weapons altogether?)

The riskiest weapon in that nuclear plan is a new land-based, intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM). As former Secretary of Defense William Perry once explained, ICBMs are among “the most dangerous weapons in the world” because a president warned of a nuclear attack would have only a matter of minutes to decide whether to launch them, increasing the risk of an accidental nuclear war based on a false alarm. Not only is a new ICBM unnecessary, but the existing ones should be retired as well, as a way of reducing the potential for a world-ending nuclear conflagration.

To its credit, the Biden administration is trying to get rid of an ill-conceived nuclear weapons program initiated during the Trump years – a sea-launched, nuclear-armed cruise missile that, rather than adding a “deterrent” capability, would raise the risk of a nuclear confrontation. As expected, nuclear hawks in the military and Congress are trying to restore funding for that nuclear SLCM (pronounced “Slick ‘em”).

… more than 40% of the Department of Energy’s budget for 2023 is slated to support the National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA), which manages the country’s nuclear weapons program, principally by maintaining and developing nuclear warheads.

Read more here: https://www.commondreams.org/views/20 ... -not-more

[caltrek]

Rutgers-led Study Finds Nuclear War Would Cause a Global Famine and Kill Billions
August 15, 2022

Introduction:

(EurekAlert) More than 5 billion people would die of hunger following a full-scale nuclear war between the U.S. and Russia, according to a global study led by Rutgers climate scientists that estimates post-conflict crop production.

“The data tell us one thing: We must prevent a nuclear war from ever happening,” said Alan Robock, a Distinguished Professor of climate science in the Department of Environmental Sciences at Rutgers University and co-author of the study. Lili Xia, an assistant research professor in the Department of Environmental Sciences at Rutgers, is lead author of the study published in the journal Nature Food.

Building on past research, Xia, Robock and their colleagues worked to calculate how much Sun-blocking soot would enter the atmosphere from firestorms that would be ignited by the detonation of nuclear weapons. Researchers calculated soot dispersal from six war scenarios – five smaller India-Pakistan wars and a large U.S.-Russia war – based on the size of each country’s nuclear arsenal.

These data then were entered into the Community Earth System Model, a climate forecasting tool supported by the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). The NCAR Community Land Model made it possible to estimate productivity of major crops (maize, rice, spring wheat and soybean) on a country-by-country basis. The researchers also examined projected changes to livestock pasture and in global marine fisheries.

Under even the smallest nuclear scenario, a localized war between India and Pakistan, global average caloric production decreased 7 percent within five years of the conflict. In the largest war scenario tested – a full-scale U.S.-Russia nuclear conflict – global average caloric production decreased by about 90 percent three to four years after the fighting.

Read more here: https://www.eurekalert.org/news-releases/961482

[caltrek]

Russia Blocks Final Deal on Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty
by Jake Johnson
August 27, 2022

Introduction:

(Common Dreams) Peace advocates voiced their disappointment and outrage on Friday after Russia blocked a final agreement aimed at fortifying the decades-old Treaty on the Nonproliferation of Nuclear Weapons, which critics say has failed in its central mission of stopping the spread of atomic weaponry worldwide.

With the threat of a nuclear conflict believed to be at its highest level since the Cold War amid growing tensions between the U.S. and Russia—which together possess more than 90% of the world's nuclear weapons—the 191 parties to the nonproliferation treaty (NPT) attempted over the past several weeks to negotiate a deal reaffirming and strengthening the document's core objectives.

But Russia rejected a final 36-page draft over its mention of Ukraine's Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, which Russian forces are currently occupying, fueling fears of a catastrophe.

The provision that Russia opposed states, "The Conference expresses its grave concern for the military activities conducted near or at nuclear power plants and other facilities or locations subject to safeguards under Ukraine's comprehensive safeguards agreement, in particular the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, as well as the loss of control by the competent Ukrainian authorities over such locations as a result of those military activities, and their profound negative impact on safety, security, including physical protection of nuclear material, and safeguards."

"The Conference recognizes that the loss of control over nuclear facilities and other locations prevents the competent Ukrainian authorities and the [International Atomic Energy Agency] from ensuring that safeguards activities can be implemented effectively and safely," the provision adds.

Read more here: https://www.commondreams.org/news/2022 ... on-treaty

[caltrek]

Inside the U.S. Response to Iran on the Draft Nuclear Deal
by Barak Ravid
August 31, 2022

Introduction:

(Axios) The U.S. told Iran through EU mediators that linking the UN investigation of Iran's undeclared nuclear activity to the reimplementation of the 2015 nuclear deal could delay lifting U.S. sanctions, according to a U.S. official and a think tank expert briefed on the issue.

Why it matters: The issue of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) investigations is one of the two remaining stumbling blocks in returning to the 2015 nuclear agreement.

• Tehran demands the IAEA probes that focus on uranium particles UN investigators found at several Iranian sites be closed ahead of “reimplementation day” — 120 days after a new nuclear deal is signed.

Driving the news: According to the draft nuclear deal presented by the EU, the agreement's implementation would take place in several stages. The parties would move to the next stage only after full implementation of the steps they committed to taking, sources briefed on the draft said.

Read more here: https://www.axios.com/2022/08/31/iran- ... tigations

[wjfox]

Unleash nuclear weapons on Ukraine in wake of defeat in Lyman, Chechen warlord tells Putin

Ramzan Kadyrov calls for an intensification of the war after Vladimir Putin suffers another humilitating defeat

By Campbell MacDiarmid and Will Hazell
1 October 2022 • 8:20pm

Ramzan Kadyrov, the Chechen leader and key Kremlin ally, called on Vladimir Putin to use tactical nuclear weapons against Ukraine in the wake of another major and embarrassing military defeat.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/ ... nnexation/

[raklian]

Unleash nuclear weapons on Ukraine in wake of defeat in Lyman, Chechen warlord tells Putin

But he doesn't know what the United States told Putin in private what will happen should he use the nuke card. Putin likely will ignore Kadyrov's advice.

[caltrek]

Challenges Before New START And Its Successor
by Niranjan Chandrashekhar Oak
September, 2022

Introduction:

(Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses via
Eurasia Review) On 8 August 2022, Russia temporarily halted the United States (US) inspections of the former’s nuclear sites agreed under the New Strategic Arms Reductions Treaty (New START) on account of lack of parity and equality vis-à-vis access to the US inspection facilities for Russian inspectors.1For Moscow, the decision was triggered by the US notification regarding its intention to inspect Russian nuclear sites, although such inspections under the New START treaty were paused due to Covid-19 in early 2020 by mutual consent.

At the Tenth Non-Proliferation Treaty Review Conference (RevCon) 2022, both countries sounded conciliatory regarding their views on arms control. Russian President Vladimir Putin, in a message to the conference, stated that Russia has “fully implemented” its bilateral commitments with the US on nuclear arms reduction. Putin added that a “nuclear war cannot be won and must never be fought…”

Conclusion:

While the world has moved away from Cold War-era bipolarity, the US and Russia remain two of the most consequential powers vis-à-vis the nuclear domain. The bilateral arms control treaties have, to some extent, contributed to reducing the risk of nuclear war, enhancing mutual trust between the antagonistic superpowers, reducing the number of nuclear weapons and providing overall strategic stability during the peak of the Cold War rivalry. However, the New START and its successor treaty face credible challenges—one, from a rising China and two, from emerging technologies. The dysfunctional relationship between the US and Russia post the Ukraine crisis has adversely impacted its execution.

If the countries fail to negotiate a successor agreement to New START, China might get a free pass to expand its nuclear arsenal. Moreover, there is the possibility of an unrestricted arms race with significant detrimental implications. The challenges to implementing the treaty are not insurmountable. If the US and the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics could successfully negotiate and implement arms control treaties during the peak of the Cold War, the same can be achieved even today.

Read more here: https://www.eurasiareview.com/04102022 ... analysis/

[wjfox]

Ukraine war: Biden says nuclear risk highest since 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis

17 minutes ago

The risk of a nuclear "Armageddon" is at its highest level since the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis, US President Joe Biden has said.

Mr Biden said Russia's President Vladimir Putin was "not joking" when he spoke of using tactical nuclear weapons after suffering setbacks in Ukraine.

The US was "trying to figure out" Mr Putin's way out of the war, he added.

The US and the EU have previously said Mr Putin's nuclear sabre-rattling should be taken seriously.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-63167947

[caltrek]

Sixty Years After the Cuban Missile Crisis, How to Face a New Era of Global Catastrophic Risks
by Christian Ruhl
October 13, 2022

Introduction:

(Bulletin of Atomic Scientists) This month marks the 60th anniversary of the Cuban Missile Crisis. For two tense weeks from October 16 to October 29, 1962, the United States and the Soviet Union teetered on the brink of nuclear war. Sixty years later, tensions between the world’s major militaries are uncomfortably high once again.

In recent weeks, Russian President Vladimir Putin’s nuclear-charged threats to use “all available means” in the Russo-Ukrainian war have again raised the prospect of nuclear war. And on October 6, US President Joe Biden reportedly told a group of Democratic donors: “For the first time since the Cuban Missile Crisis, we have a direct threat to the use of nuclear weapons, if in fact things continue down the path they’d been going.”

Any uncontrolled escalation of these existing conflicts could end in global catastrophe, and the history of the Cuban Missile Crisis suggests that such escalation may be more likely to happen through miscalculation and accidents. Lists of nuclear close calls show the variety of pathways that could have led to disaster during the Cuban crisis. Famously, Soviet naval officer Vasili Arkhipov vetoed the captain of a nuclear submarine who wanted to launch a nuclear-armed torpedo in response to what turned out to be non-lethal depth charges fired by US forces; had Arkhipov not been on this particular vessel, the captain might have had the two other votes he needed to order a launch.

Today, artificial intelligence and other new technologies, if thoughtlessly deployed, could increase the risk of accidents and miscalculation even further. For example, imagine a re-run of the Cuban Missile Crisis in which Arkhipov is replaced by an AI-enabled decision aid. At the confluence of rapid technological progress and heightened fears of a major war involving the Great Powers, it’s easy to throw up one’s hands and see global catastrophic risks—including but not limited to the intersection of artificial intelligence and nuclear weapons—as fundamentally intractable. However, history also shows that policy makers, scientists, and ordinary people can come together to reduce global catastrophic risks.

Read more here: https://thebulletin.org/2022/10/sixty- ... t-heading


A US Navy Lockheed SP-2H Neptune flying over a Soviet cargo ship with crated Russian bombers on deck in late 1962.
US Navy photo

[caltrek]

Rehearsal for 'Armageddon' Underway as NATO and Russia Hold Nuclear Exercises
by Brett Wilkins
October 17, 2022

Introduction:

(Common Dreams) As NATO on Monday began its annual rehearsal for nuclear war in Europe and Russia prepared to conduct its own nuclear drill amid Cold War-like tensions inflamed by the invasion of Ukraine, peace advocates underscored the imperative for de-escalation in order to avert catastrophe.

"All nuclear exercises imply willingness to mass murder civilians, wipe out entire cities, and risk all-out nuclear war," the International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons (ICAN) warned ahead of the NATO drill. "They also risk accidents and escalation, and will legitimize Russia's dangerous nuclear rhetoric."

NATO said the exercise—operation name Steadfast Noon—involves up to 60 warplanes from 14 members of the alliance, and is being carried out from Kleine Brogel air base in northeastern Belgium.

The U.S. military stockpiles dozens of B61-12 tactical nuclear warheads at Kleine Brogel, each up to 30 times as powerful as the atomic bomb that the United States dropped on Hiroshima, Japan in 1945, killing over 100,000 people.

Read more here: https://www.commondreams.org/news/2022 ... exercises

[wjfox]

Putin Says Russia May Add Nuclear First Strike to Strategy

9 December 2022 at 15:02 GMT

Vladimir Putin said Russia may consider formally adding the possibility of a preventive nuclear first strike to disarm an opponent to its military doctrine, just days after warning that the risk of atomic war is rising. “We’re thinking about this,” the Russian president told reporters after a summit in Kyrgyzstan. “If we are talking about a disarming strike, perhaps we should think about using the approaches of our American partners,” he said, citing what he called US strategies to use high-accuracy missiles for a preventive strike.

The comments were Putin’s second on the nuclear issue this week. On Wednesday, he said the risk of atomic warfare is rising and called Russia’s arsenal “a deterrent factor” in conflicts. Russia’s doctrine currently envisions using nuclear weapons as a last resort in the event of a threat to the state’s existence.

The US and its allies have denounced Putin for what they call nuclear saber-rattling over his invasion of Ukraine. Russia blames the West for raising the issue first, although Kremlin officials began the threats.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... o-strategy

[caltrek]

I hesitate to post this article as it seems to be stating the obvious. However, nowadays nothing seems to be taken as being obvious on the internet.


International Group of Scientists Warns Nuclear Radiation Has Devastating Impacts on Ecosystems
February 6, 2023

Introduction:

(EurekAlert) Russian President Vladimir Putin has threatened the use of “tactical” nuclear weapons in the war in Ukraine, but nuclear weapons of any kind would cause widespread devastation, according to a new position paper by a group of renowned scientists from around the world. They want to make policymakers and the public aware of the ecosystem impacts and long-lasting consequences of nuclear radiation.

The authors are members of the International Biodiversity Network, an organization of globally recognized experts in biodiversity, climate change, ecosystem health and ecosystem services, including A. Alonso Aguirre, dean of Colorado State University’s Warner College of Natural Resources.
Any release of nuclear radiation – including accidental leaks – would be detrimental to all life on Earth, the authors representing 10 countries conclude.

“Even a ‘tactical nuclear war’ could alter all life on planet Earth,” said Cristian Bonacic, lead author and a professor of ecosystems and the environment at the Pontifical Catholic University of Chile. “Food production and chain effects with migratory movements would be on a scale never before seen, ending the current Anthropocene era. As scientists, we want to call the attention of all decision-makers to the risks associated with radiation.”

Radiation doesn’t stay where it’s released and triggers cascading effects as it spreads through air and water. Contamination can last hundreds or even thousands of years and could alter how the biosphere functions.

High levels of radiation cause death and disease and could lead to extinction of local animals and plants that are already endangered. Some ecosystems might be pushed beyond their limits for mitigation or adaptation, the scientists warn.

Read more here: https://www.eurekalert.org/news-releases/978862

[wjfox]

Putin just announced that Russia is suspending its participation in the New Start nuclear arms reduction treaty with the US.

[erowind]

.

[weatheriscool]

Insane. Of course Putin is insane so this doesn't come as much of a shock.

[wjfox]

CIA director: Iran's nuclear program advancing at "worrisome pace"

February 26, 2023 / 10:10 AM / CBS News

Iran's nuclear enrichment program is more advanced than previously known and "if they chose to cross that line," Tehran would only need a "matter of weeks" to enrich uranium capable of powering a nuclear weapon, CIA director William Burns told CBS News in an exclusive interview with "Face the Nation" that aired Sunday.

"To the best of our knowledge, we don't believe that the Supreme Leader in Iran has yet made a decision to resume the weaponization program that we judge that they suspended or stopped at the end of 2003," Burns told "Face the Nation" moderator Margaret Brennan. "But the other two legs of the stool, meaning enrichment programs, they've obviously advanced very far."

Burns noted that Tehran has also been advancing its missile systems, and is now nearing the threshold of being a nuclear state, though it has not resumed weaponization.

U.S. intelligence analysts believed Iran paused working on nuclear weapons in 2003, but that they have continued to develop nuclear technology and expertise, including improved abilities to enrich uranium which can be used as nuclear fuel. Uranium enriched to 90% purity can be used to manufacture nuclear weapons.

Last week, Bloomberg reported that Iran possesses uranium at 84% purity. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) said it was aware of the reports and would discuss with Iran the results of recent verification activities that the UN nuclear watchdog had performed.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/william-bu ... interview/

[raklian]

CIA director: Iran's nuclear program advancing at "worrisome pace"

I predict there'll be an explosion or two in Iran's nuclear facilities in the near term.

[ººº]

CIA director: Iran's nuclear program advancing at "worrisome pace"

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/william-bu ... interview/

Putin?

[weatheriscool]

UN nuclear watchdog: 2.5 tons of uranium missing in Libya
Source: AP

By JON GAMBRELL today

DUBAI, United Arab Emirates (AP) — Some 2.5 tons of natural uranium stored in a site in war-torn Libya have gone missing, the United Nations nuclear watchdog said Thursday, raising safety and proliferation concerns.

Natural uranium can’t immediately be used for energy production or bomb fuel, as the enrichment process typically requires the metal to be converted into a gas, then later spun in centrifuges to reach the levels needed.

However, each ton of natural uranium — if obtained by a group with the technological means and resources — can be refined to 5.6 kilograms (12 pounds) of weapons-grade material over time, experts say. That makes finding the missing metal important for nonproliferation experts.

In a statement, the Vienna-based International Atomic Energy Agency said its director-general, Rafael Mariano Grossi, informed member states Wednesday about the missing uranium.

Read more: https://apnews.com/article/libya-missin ... 3a262a5241