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New predictions for the timeline
Posted: Sun May 16, 2021 10:10 pm
by wjfox
Here you can suggest ideas for new entries on our
timeline, or changes to existing entries.
Any references or data/trends would be greatly appreciated.
Thanks!
Re: New predictions for the timeline
Posted: Tue Jun 01, 2021 1:53 am
by Ozzie guy
2024 Proto AGI is created.
Yuli Ban confidently predicts proto AGI before the end of 2024, starspawn0 thinks this prediction is reasonable and it seems like much of the subreddit
https://www.reddit.com/r/thisisthewayitwillbe/ also believes in the prediction.
Yuli's most recent definition of proto AGI on this forum is the following "A proto-AGI or a Zombie AGI is really an advanced conversation model that can convince people it's intelligent, with some skills in generating images and audio to boot. Imagine LaMDA fused with DALL-E and Jukebox. It's hard to say if it's a language model, an image generation model, or an audio synthesis model because it does all three and more. Heck, you could use it for arithmetic like a natural language calculator.
However, it's not quite generally capable in all fields— I wouldn't trust it with driving a car."
Having an actually existing AGI as a starting point to grow from is an absolutely insanely large development for humanity and especially for users on this forum.
Re: New predictions for the timeline
Posted: Fri Jun 04, 2021 12:55 am
by TrueAnimationFan
What about New Horizons entering the Oort cloud by 2590?
Re: New predictions for the timeline
Posted: Fri Jun 04, 2021 9:06 am
by wjfox
Set and Meet Goals wrote: ↑Tue Jun 01, 2021 1:53 am
2024 Proto AGI is created.
Yuli Ban confidently predicts proto AGI before the end of 2024, starspawn0 thinks this prediction is reasonable and it seems like much of the subreddit
https://www.reddit.com/r/thisisthewayitwillbe/ also believes in the prediction.
Yuli's most recent definition of proto AGI on this forum is the following "A proto-AGI or a Zombie AGI is really an advanced conversation model that can convince people it's intelligent, with some skills in generating images and audio to boot. Imagine LaMDA fused with DALL-E and Jukebox. It's hard to say if it's a language model, an image generation model, or an audio synthesis model because it does all three and more. Heck, you could use it for arithmetic like a natural language calculator.
However, it's not quite generally capable in all fields— I wouldn't trust it with driving a car."
Having an actually existing AGI as a starting point to grow from is an absolutely insanely large development for humanity and especially for users on this forum.
Depends how you define AGI, but I'm not convinced it will arrive that soon, despite the recent progress with GPT, etc. There's a big difference between natural language processing and a fully-fledged AGI that can navigate 3D environments, recognise and manipulate objects, etc.
TrueAnimationFan wrote: ↑Fri Jun 04, 2021 12:55 am
What about New Horizons entering the Oort cloud by 2590?
Yep, that's on my "To Do" list.
Re: New predictions for the timeline
Posted: Sun Jun 06, 2021 10:02 am
by wjfox
Couple more ideas:
Early 2040s - Intercontinental passenger spaceships linking major cities in two hours
viewtopic.php?f=27&t=471
2070 – Completion of Denmark's Lynetteholm artificial island project
viewtopic.php?f=27&t=473
Re: New predictions for the timeline
Posted: Tue Jun 08, 2021 8:32 am
by wjfox
Having updated the VR prediction for 2039 (now 2042), the next major entry I want to rewrite is 2045. Any ideas welcome.
Re: New predictions for the timeline
Posted: Tue Jun 08, 2021 9:48 am
by Time_Traveller
wjfox wrote: ↑Tue Jun 08, 2021 8:32 am
Having updated the VR prediction for 2039 (now 2042), the next major entry I want to rewrite is 2045. Any ideas welcome.
Don't forget to add China's plan to achieve one-hour global arrival and flight-based ground-to-orbit and orbit-to-orbit space transportation by 2045. Originally revealed in a speech in 2020.
https://cntechpost.com/2020/09/18/china ... the-globe/
Re: New predictions for the timeline
Posted: Fri Jun 18, 2021 6:40 pm
by wjfox
Re: New predictions for the timeline
Posted: Sat Jun 26, 2021 10:30 am
by wjfox
Re: New predictions for the timeline
Posted: Sun Jun 27, 2021 8:26 pm
by wjfox
2057 – Smart clothing is a trillion dollar industry
^ Current prediction I'm working on.
It'll only account for about 15% of total worldwide clothing revenue, however, based on my extrapolations. So I think we'll have to wait many more decades before all clothing has embedded sensors/electronics. Even then, I think some people might choose to wear traditional clothing for personal, cultural or religious reasons, so perhaps we'll never actually reach 100%.
Re: New predictions for the timeline
Posted: Tue Jul 27, 2021 2:01 pm
by GTrang
Some other ideas:
- 2100 - Leap year is skipped for the first time since 1900. (2000 was a leap year, and so will 2400, as they are divisible by 400)
- 2178 - Happy first "Plutonian Birthday", Pluto!
- 2492 - On May 6, the orbits of the eight planets and Pluto will all be within the same 90-degree arc of the Solar System, according to Jean Meeus.
- 2623 - The first layer of Manfred Laber's Time Pyramid (Zeitpyramide) is completed.
- 2983 - The second layer of Manfred Laber's Time Pyramid (Zeitpyramide) is completed.
- 3143 - The third layer of Manfred Laber's Time Pyramid (Zeitpyramide) is completed.
- 3183 - The fourth and final layer of Manfred Laber's Time Pyramid (Zeitpyramide) is completed.
Re: New predictions for the timeline
Posted: Mon Aug 02, 2021 5:04 am
by Revolutionary Moderate
Here is something I would like to see on the timeline.
2265-The return of the Great Comet of 1861.
Re: New predictions for the timeline
Posted: Tue Aug 03, 2021 12:22 am
by TrueAnimationFan
2450 AD - An interstellar radio signal arrives at Polaris
Source:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/A_Simple_ ... al_Message
Re: New predictions for the timeline
Posted: Fri Sep 10, 2021 3:20 pm
by wjfox
Re: New predictions for the timeline
Posted: Tue Oct 05, 2021 2:24 pm
by wjfox
A friend of mine posted this on SkyscraperCity:
The break up of the UK is underway, I tentatively have the following timeline:
2024 - Scotland votes to leave the UK
2032 - Scotland concludes negotiations and formally issues their declaration of independence
2035 - Northern Ireland announces closer ties with Ireland, calls for vote on future with 3 options: remain in UK, become independent state, unify with Ireland. Unification/independence is a coin flip at the moment. Result is still NI wishes to leave the UK
2040 - Wales calls for independence vote, NI concludes negotiations to leave the UK and either unifies with Ireland or declares independence
2042 - Welsh independence vote won by yes
Re: New predictions for the timeline
Posted: Thu Oct 28, 2021 2:27 pm
by wjfox
2022 - Completion of the Grace Hopper subsea cable
"...one of the first new cables to connect the U.S. and the U.K. since 2003, and the first investment by Google in a private subsea cable route to the U.K. and the first-ever route to Spain. [...]
"The Grace Hopper cable consists of 16 fiber pairs (32 fibers), with 22Tbps per fiber pair and a total of 352Tbps system capacity, a significant upgrade to the internet infrastructure connecting the U.S. with Europe."
https://www.submarinenetworks.com/en/sy ... ace-hopper
Re: New predictions for the timeline
Posted: Thu Oct 28, 2021 2:37 pm
by wjfox
Re: New predictions for the timeline
Posted: Fri Oct 29, 2021 3:02 pm
by wjfox
2038 - Urban air mobility is a trillion-dollar industry
https://www.morganstanley.com/ideas/autonomous-aircraft
Re: New predictions for the timeline
Posted: Tue Nov 23, 2021 9:37 pm
by wjfox
2100
Africa is a major urban and political centre*
Based on this amazing article...
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/in ... ca-cities/
*Or maybe there's a better title? Suggestions welcome.
Re: New predictions for the timeline
Posted: Thu Nov 25, 2021 4:18 pm
by wjfox
