The first half of the article recaps the last five years of progress in machine learning, and goes over things we've been discussing at length on this forum (GPT-3, DALL-E 2, etc.). Here are the bits that were interesting to me:
Ajeya Cotra, a senior analyst with Open Philanthropy who studies A.I. risk, estimated two years ago that there was a 15 percent chance of “transformational A.I.” — which she and others have defined as A.I. that is good enough to usher in large-scale economic and societal changes, such as eliminating most white-collar knowledge jobs — emerging by 2036.
But in a recent post, Ms. Cotra raised that to a 35 percent chance, citing the rapid improvement of systems like GPT-3.
“A.I. systems can go from adorable and useless toys to very powerful products in a surprisingly short period of time,” Ms. Cotra told me. “People should take more seriously that A.I. could change things soon, and that could be really scary.”
Even if the skeptics are right, and A.I. doesn’t achieve human-level sentience for many years, it’s easy to see how systems like GPT-3, LaMDA and DALL-E 2 could become a powerful force in society. In a few years, the vast majority of the photos, videos and text we encounter on the internet could be A.I.-generated. Our online interactions could become stranger and more fraught, as we struggle to figure out which of our conversational partners are human and which are convincing bots. And tech-savvy propagandists could use the technology to churn out targeted misinformation on a vast scale, distorting the political process in ways we won’t see coming.
Third, the news media needs to do a better job of explaining A.I. progress to nonexperts. Too often, journalists — and I admit I’ve been a guilty party here — rely on outdated sci-fi shorthand to translate what’s happening in A.I. to a general audience. We sometimes compare large language models to Skynet and HAL 9000, and flatten promising machine learning breakthroughs to panicky “The robots are coming!” headlines that we think will resonate with readers. Occasionally, we betray our ignorance by illustrating articles about software-based A.I. models with photos of hardware-based factory robots — an error that is as inexplicable as slapping a photo of a BMW on a story about bicycles.
Re: "We Need to Talk About How Good A.I. Is Getting"
Posted: Sat Aug 27, 2022 8:11 pm
by Nanotechandmorefuture
We are going to find a world where nothing is what it seems and to be somewhat reasonable some will be half cyborg at least. Right on track for that omnipresent AI like in Cyberpunk.
Re: "We Need to Talk About How Good A.I. Is Getting"
Posted: Mon Aug 29, 2022 11:11 pm
by peekpok
I feel like there's going to be a sort of "machine-learning-optimized-everything" S-curve in every industry in the next 5-20 years. I don't know how far away AGI is, but narrow AI is becoming damn good and nobody can deny that. Any sort of business where reliably predicting the behavior of a complex system ahead of time makes the business more efficient will benefit. Logistics, manufacturing, farming, distribution, those types of industries. But we will also see leaps in product design, such as using ANI to optimize designs. This is already happening with computer chips, but will eventually be used for everything. Even simple stuff like reducing the total material needed to build a bridge, or whatever.
Re: "We Need to Talk About How Good A.I. Is Getting"
Posted: Mon Jan 09, 2023 4:43 pm
by caltrek
"World's First Robot Lawyer" To Make History Defending A Client In Court by Jack Dunhill
January 9, 2023
Introduction:
(IFL Science) An Artificial Intelligence (AI) lawyer is gearing up to make history as the first AI to defend a case in court. Dubbed the world’s first “robot lawyer”, the bot will give prompts to the defendant on how to best argue their case against a speeding ticket when the hearing takes place next month.
Created by startup DoNotPay, the chatbot will be on a mobile phone and will deliver prompts through headphones to the defendant, who has agreed to only say what the AI tells it to. The landmark case is designed as a test for DoNotPay’s services and they will pay for any fines incurred if the AI fails to win the case for the defendant.
While it may sound like the future of court hearings, there’s a catch – mobile phones and headphones are generally not allowed in courtrooms. However, according to the firm’s founder Joshua Browder, the hearing will take place in a location that will consider the headphones a “hearing aid”, thus allowing the AI.
“It’s technically within the rules, but I don’t think it’s in the spirit of the rules,” says Browder in a statement to New Scientist.
DoNotPay launched in 2015 as a chatbot startup aiming to help consumers get out of paying fines and late fees, and has since moved to AI following rapid advancements in technology that have occurred recently in the form of OpenAI’s GPT-3.
Re: "We Need to Talk About How Good A.I. Is Getting"
Posted: Sat Feb 04, 2023 3:34 pm
by funkervogt
I started this thread just five months ago. Since then, ChatGPT has been unveiled and has expanded its customer base faster than any other invention in history.
I've also used it and find it very impressive. A ton of other tech companies are now in a race to make even better algorithms than ChatGPT, and they will surely succeed in the near future.
AI is definitely advancing quickly. I didn't think I'd see a time when major improvements like this would be happening every few months.
Re: "We Need to Talk About How Good A.I. Is Getting"
Posted: Sat Feb 04, 2023 3:53 pm
by ººº
funkervogt wrote: ↑Sat Feb 04, 2023 3:34 pm
I started this thread just five months ago. Since then, ChatGPT has been unveiled and has expanded its customer base faster than any other invention in history.
I've also used it and find it very impressive. A ton of other tech companies are now in a race to make even better algorithms than ChatGPT, and they will surely succeed in the near future.
AI is definitely advancing quickly. I didn't think I'd see a time when major improvements like this would be happening every few months.
The next Steve Jobs/Bill gates is in the making (or very soon to be).
Re: "We Need to Talk About How Good A.I. Is Getting"
Posted: Sat Feb 04, 2023 5:21 pm
by raklian
ººº wrote: ↑Sat Feb 04, 2023 3:53 pm
The next Steve Jobs/Bill gates is in the making (or very soon to be).
Who says it has to be a human?
Imagine a predecessor AI designing and coding the next generation AI.
I suppose the next human Steve Jobs will be the one to start this freight train of self-improvement.
Re: "We Need to Talk About How Good A.I. Is Getting"
Posted: Sat Feb 04, 2023 6:01 pm
by funkervogt
That's an interesting thought. What if the first AGI has no direct human inventor? A narrow AI just built a better narrow AI, which then repeated that process, until after some number of iterations an AGI arose, with no human input? It's code would be complex that human computer scientists that set the first narrow AI out on the task wouldn't comprehend the final product.
Re: "We Need to Talk About How Good A.I. Is Getting"
The History Channel at its finest. I wish all of its programming met the high standard set by this type of show.
Re: "We Need to Talk About How Good A.I. Is Getting"
Posted: Tue Feb 07, 2023 7:09 pm
by caltrek
Can Pigeons Match Wits With Artificial Intelligence? February 7, 2023
Introduction:
(EurekAlert) Can a pigeon match wits with artificial intelligence? At a very basic level, yes.
In a new study, psychologists at the University of Iowa examined the workings of the pigeon brain and how the “brute force” of the bird’s learning shares similarities with artificial intelligence.
The researchers gave the pigeons complex categorization tests that high-level thinking, such as using logic or reasoning, would not aid in solving. Instead, the pigeons, by virtue of exhaustive trial and error, eventually were able to memorize enough scenarios in the test to reach nearly 70% accuracy.
The researchers equate the pigeons’ repetitive, trial-and-error approach to artificial intelligence. Computers employ the same basic methodology, the researchers contend, being “taught” how to identify patterns and objects easily recognized by humans. Granted, computers, because of their enormous memory and storage power—and growing ever more powerful in those domains—far surpass anything the pigeon brain can conjure.
Still, the basic process of making associations—considered a lower-level thinking technique—is the same between the test-taking pigeons and the latest AI advances.
