It's still inconclusive if Omnicron indeed can outcompete delta. Others here are posting sources about that already. But in plain english assuming I've got my facts right. Omnicron outcompeted delta over ~200 cases. This is a fairly small sample. Even if it is true that omnicron outcompetes delta it may not have 500% greater transmissibility. With more data and time I expect that even in a worst case scenario that number will come down significantly as the statistic gets more accurate. Small samples can have very skewed statistics.
Even if omnicron is only 2x or 1.5x more transmisssable that would still be bad of course, but we shouldn't fear a measles rival until we're sure that's what's actually happening.
Re: COVID-19 News and Discussions
Posted: Sat Nov 27, 2021 2:40 am
by Ken_J
honestly, it's possible that the new variant is so mild as to be a minor inconvenience to get, but way more easy to get, and immunities from it may be longer lasting and protect against the worse versions. Think cow pocks and small pocks.
this talk of pocks does have me wondering is there is a risk of a shingles like effect years down the line.
Like maybe the new strain out competes the rest, spreads super easy and only results in a sore throat and lost of smell and taste. But then goes dormant in the nervous system (perhaps olfactory) and at a later time reemerges in the nervous system causing neurological destruction like severe strokes and whatnot.
Re: COVID-19 News and Discussions
Posted: Sat Nov 27, 2021 2:47 am
by Xyls
If this virus is highly transmissible yet not dangerous that would be ideal. However, we do not know what this particular variant is capable of... and we have not seen enough cases to know how this variant plays out in people. (Most importantly the already vaccinated.) If it makes the vaccinated seriously ill another global lockdown will be imminent...
I expect we are going to have an explosive global tsunami of cases by Christmas...
Re: COVID-19 News and Discussions
Posted: Sat Nov 27, 2021 2:54 am
by Yuli Ban
England's COVID-19 weekly reproduction "R" number has risen and is likely to be above one, with latest estimates showing it between 1.0 and 1.1, the UK Health Security Agency said on Friday
Re: COVID-19 News and Discussions
Posted: Sat Nov 27, 2021 3:02 am
by Yuli Ban
If COVID-Omicron develops as I think it might, we'll be in for a perfect storm early next year:
- New, massive wave of COVID that forces new lockdowns and restrictions
- Global supply shortage straining the economy
- Student loan pause ends, further buckling the economy
- Labor shortage continues and becomes even worse, putting even more weight on the economy
- Oil prices are sky high but could crash, making the economy suffer
- Inflation is skyrocketing, even though wages are just barely budging upwards
- Chinese property bubble may or may not pop
Each one of these casts massive anxiety to the global markets, but all seven coalescing together would precipitate a supermassive crash that makes even 2020's look tame
Re: COVID-19 News and Discussions
Posted: Sat Nov 27, 2021 9:15 am
by wjfox
Re: COVID-19 News and Discussions
Posted: Sat Nov 27, 2021 9:28 am
by Yuli Ban
New York Gov. Kathy Hochul has declared a state of emergency ahead of potential COVID-19 spikes this winter due to the already-circulating Delta and newly-identified Omicron variants of coronavirus.
The declaration, which goes into effect on Dec. 3, will allow the state to acquire pandemic-fighting supplies, increase hospital capacity and fight potential staffing shortages. It would also allow the state Health Department to limit non-essential and non-urgent procedures at hospitals.
"We continue to see warning signs of spikes this upcoming winter, and while the new Omicron variant has yet to be detected in New York State, it's coming," Hochul said.
The move comes hours after the governor said her office was closely monitoring the new variant, which was first sequenced in South Africa earlier this week.
Re: COVID-19 News and Discussions
Posted: Sat Nov 27, 2021 9:31 am
by Yuli Ban
Re: COVID-19 News and Discussions
Posted: Sat Nov 27, 2021 9:38 am
by Yuli Ban
Re: COVID-19 News and Discussions
Posted: Sat Nov 27, 2021 11:57 am
by Xyls
Some interesting anecdotal news coming in from South Africa:
Appears that Omicron is causing a surge in young patients in South Africa in the 20-30 range so it appears to be possibly more severe for younger people. However, it appears that almost all those going to hospital are unvaxxed or partially vaccinated which possibly suggests that the vaccines still provide good protection against severe outcomes for Omicron for the fully vaxxed even if it doesn't prevent infection...
