Future Timeline

Discount supermarket chain Aldi aims to hire more than 20,000 workers in the U.S. this year as its network grows and as it prepares for holiday shopping, the company said Monday.

Jobs that Aldi is hiring for include cashiers, stockers and associates at its more than 2,100 American stores and its 25 warehouses. The company will be drawing from a tight U.S. labor market in which openings have recently exceeded the number of people looking for work.

Against that backdrop, wages have been rising, including for low-skilled workers. Following a recent internal wage rise at Aldi, workers in the new positions will earn a national average of $15 an hour for store jobs and $19 an hour for warehouse jobs, the company said. The jobs come with healthcare and retirement plans and paid time off, Aldi said.

Other large retailers have cited hiring as a challenge in recent months.

“We’re seeing some pressure on labor in certain markets and in some of our distribution centers,” Albertsons Cos. Chief Executive Vivek Sankaran told analysts on a call last month. “The way we’re seeing the pressure there is more from turnover and the ability to fill jobs.”

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. retail sales fell more than expected in July as shortages depressed motor vehicle purchases and the boost to spending from the economy's reopening and stimulus checks faded, suggesting a slowdown in economic growth early in the third quarter.

The weak sales reported by the Commerce Department on Tuesday also reflected a rotation in spending back to services from goods. Retail sales mostly capture the goods component of consumer spending, which accounts for a smaller share, with bulky services such as healthcare travel and hotel accommodation making up the rest.

The school year gets into full swing later in August and most education districts are reverting to in-person learning. As such, consumer spending is likely to remain strong and keep the economy growing, though rising COVID-19 cases and a recent plunge in consumer sentiment are wild cards.

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Retail sales dropped 1.1% last month. Data for June was revised up to show retail sales increasing 0.7% instead of rising 0.6% as previously reported. Retail sales are 17.2% above their pre-pandemic level.

Economists polled by Reuters had forecast retail sales slipping 0.3%. Sales increased 15.8% compared to July last year.

Receipts at auto dealerships fell 3.9% after declining 2.2% in June. Motor vehicle production has been hampered by a global shortage of semiconductors.

(Axios) The number of new homes under construction has soared — to levels not seen since the housing market crash 14 years ago.

Why it matters: Home prices have been surging as the demand for houses has outpaced supply. Homebuilders are doing what they can to keep up, but supply chain bottlenecks have led some to turn away buyers as they try to catch up.

Driving the news: There were 689,000 single-family homes under construction in July, the highest number since July 2007.

• "This is clearly a positive sign given the remarkably low levels of inventory on the market," Mortgage Bankers Association chief economist Mike Fratantoni says.

(TechCrunch) Bay Area-based Diamond Age this week announced that it has raised $8 million. The seed round is led by Prime Movers Lab and Alpaca VC and features a slew of additional firms, including Dolby Family Ventures, Calm Ventures, Gaingels, Towerview Ventures, GFA Venture Partners and Suffolk Construction.

The startup looks to put a slew of key emerging technologies to work in service of building houses with fewer workers in a significantly truncated time frame. Diamond Age claims that when, fully realized, its tech will be able to reduce manual human labor by 55% and shrink the construction time on a single family home from nine months to 30 days. Part of this funding will go toward putting the processes in place to construct a 1,100-square-foot “demonstration house” as proof of concept.

“We need to build high-quality affordable single-family homes for the next generation striving for the American dream,” co-founder and CEO Jack Oslan said in a release, “and the only way we can solve this problem is with automation.”

Specifically, the company relies on robotic and 3D printing solutions. The former involves a set of 26 different robotic arm attachments to assist with the construction. That tech is coupled with a gantry-based 3D printing technology designed to construct interior and exterior walls for the structure.

Specifically, the company is looking to target the housing crunch in its Bay Area backyard. The systems will be available to construction companies through a RaaS (robotics as a service) rental model. Pricing specifics for the system have not been revealed.

Existing-home sales rose 2% in July from the month prior, the National Association of Realtors reported Monday.(1) Sales occurred at a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 5.99 million. Compared to July 2020, sales were up 1.5%. The total inventory of homes for sales rose 7.3% on a monthly basis, though it's still down significantly from a year ago.

(Axios) Valuations for U.S. venture-backed companies are at record highs, per data released this morning by PitchBook.

Between the lines: It's the new normal, in which nontraditional investors are traditional, unicorns are pigeons and startups are in the driver's seat.

Inside the numbers: Valuation creep can be seen across all stages of the VC ecosystem, from seed to pre-IPO. It's also showing up in both the medians and averages, and also across quartiles, reflecting how this isn't just a few big deals skewing the data.

• Early-stage valuations hit all-time records in Q2 2021 of $50 million (median) and $105.4 million (average).

• Late-stage valuations also hit new highs, with the trendline suggesting that average late-stage valuations could top $1 billion by year-end

The numbers: The U.S. grew a bit faster in the spring than previously estimated, but not enough to change the underlying growth trend in an economy that’s recovered quite rapidly from the pandemic.

Gross domestic product, the official scorecard for the U.S. economy, rose at a revised 6.6% annual pace in the second quarter, the government said Thursday.

The slight increase in GDP reflected somewhat stronger consumer spending and U.S. exports than initially reported.

The revised GDP report also included the first look at corporate profits in the second quarter. Adjusted pretax profits jumped at a 9.2% annual rate and suggest businesses have plenty of capital to continue to invest and hire.

Indeed, the economy was still expanding at a robust pace in the third quarter even as the delta variant of the coronavirus flared up and government stimulus had mostly evaporated.

Economist polled by the Wall Street Journal estimate third-quarter GDP will increase by 7%.

(Axios) Orders for durable goods stalled unexpectedly in July. But manufacturers have plenty of backlogs to work through.

Why it matters: There are a lot of businesses across the economy with empty shelves as they wait for manufacturers to ship the goods. This has been crimping sales while also driving inflation.

Order backlogs offer a snapshot of how much stuff manufacturers have yet to deliver.

By the numbers: Unfilled orders — the backlog — of manufactured goods grew 0.3% month over month to $1.23 trillion in July, according to Census Bureau data released Wednesday.

This was the sixth consecutive month of gains.

WASHINGTON (AP) — U.S. home prices jumped by a record amount in June as homebuyers competed for a limited supply of available houses, the latest evidence that the housing market remains red-hot.

The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-city home price index soared 19.1% in June compared with a year earlier, the largest increase on records dating back to 2000. The annual price gains in June were higher in all 20 cities than they were in May. Prices are now at record highs in 19 of the 20 cities, with the exception of Chicago.

“The last several months have been extraordinary not only in the level of price gains, but in the consistency of gains across the country,” said Craig Lazzara, managing director of index investment strategy at S&P DJI.

There are signs that the high prices are cooling sales a bit. Sales of existing homes rose 1.5% in July from a year earlier, a separate report showed last week. That’s a much slower pace than the previous month. And the number of contracts signed to buy homes, a leading indicator of final sales, has fallen for two straight months.

U.S. private employers added back far fewer jobs than expected in August as the Delta variant's spread began to take its toll on the pace of the labor market's recovery.

Private payrolls rose by 374,000 in August, ADP said in its closely watched monthly report on Wednesday. Consensus economists were looking for private payrolls to grow by 625,000, according to Bloomberg data. In July, private sector jobs increased by 326,000, according to the firm's revised monthly print.

By sector, high-contact service-providing areas again posted the biggest private payroll gains, with leisure and hospitality jobs rising by 201,000. This was followed by a wide margin by education and health services positions with a gain of 59,000 jobs. Professional and business services payrolls also rose by 19,000.

In the goods-producing sector, overall payrolls increased by 45,000, led by construction industries with job gains of 30,000. Mining and manufacturing jobs each also rose, but by much smaller sums.

ADP's report adds to a slew of mixed labor market data out for August, when a resurgence in COVID-19 cases began to stem the pace of the recovery after a strong start to the summer. Last week, IHS Markit's latest purchasing managers' indices showed that employment activity in both the domestic services and manufacturing sectors decelerated sharply in August. And consumer confidence indices have also retreated, raising the specter of a slowdown in hiring if consumers' propensity to spend deteriorates and demand for goods and services pulls back.

Still, however, the overall trend in the data has pointed toward an ongoing, if slowing, recovery. The U.S. Labor Department's "official" monthly jobs report on Friday is expected to reaffirm that message, with job growth still coming in well above pre-pandemic levels for August but pulling back compared to July.

WASHINGTON (AP) — Growth in U.S. manufacturing accelerated in August despite the fact that companies were still struggling with supply chain problems.

The Institute for Supply Management, a trade group of purchasing managers, said Wednesday that its index of manufacturing activity rose 0.4 percentage point in August to 59.9. Manufacturing had seen a slowdown in July when activity dipped to 59.5 from 60.6 in June.

Any reading above 50 indicates growth in the manufacturing sector. August marked the 15th consecutive month that manufacturing has grown after contracting in April 2020 when the coronavirus pandemic triggered nationwide business shutdowns.

(Axios) The U.S. economy added a meager 235,000 jobs in August, while the unemployment rate fell from 5.4% to 5.2%, the government said Friday.

Why it matters: It's the first jobs report to factor in the extent of the COVID-19 surge driven by the Delta variant — showing a massive slowdown in the recovery after July's blockbuster jobs report. Economists had expected 725,000 jobs to be added.

The big picture: The pandemic is far from over, and it's still hobbling the American economic recovery. This weak report will dissuade the Federal Reserve from pulling back on the amount of cash it's injecting into the economy every month.

By the numbers: June saw 962,000 new jobs added, and July did even better with 1.05 million. In August, however, the pace of change slowed dramatically, with a gain of just 235,000 jobs — and none at all in the leisure and hospitality industries.

• The other side: Wage growth was very strong, with earnings rising 0.6% in a single month, or 4.3% on a year-over-year basis. The unemployment rate also continued to decline, hitting a new pandemic-era low of 5.2%.

(Axios) There is "no question" that the Delta variant is to blame for the disappointing August jobs report, President Biden said in remarks on Friday, a fact that he argued underscores the importance of continuing to vaccinate Americans and passing his economic agenda.

(Common Dreams) Progressives and economic experts fumed Monday as boosted unemployment aid—which has kept millions of workers, their families, and the overall economy afloat during the Covid-19 pandemic—came to an unceremonious end despite the persistence of the virus and a stalled economic recovery.

"Happy Labor Day everyone!" tweeted Matt Bruenig, founder of the left-leaning People's Policy Project, in a sarcastic declaration early on Labor Day. "Today, 9.3 million unemployed workers will have their benefits cut, depriving them and 26 million members of their household of income."
As CNN reports:

• Nearly 18 months after Congress came to the rescue of jobless Americans, its historic expansion of the nation's unemployment benefits system expired nationwide this weekend. Lawmakers, who extended the three pandemic programs in December and March, are not expected to renew them again.

• A key component of the relief effort was a federal weekly supplement for out-of-work Americans. Initially, the jobless received a $600-a-week boost from April through July of 2020. Congress then revived the enhancement in late December but reduced it to $300 a week.

• Lawmakers also created two other measures to aid the jobless when the coronavirus struck. The Pandemic Unemployment Assistance program provided payments for freelancers, the self-employed, independent contractors and certain people affected by the outbreak, while the Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Compensation program extended payments for those who've exhausted their regular state benefits.

WASHINGTON (AP) — U.S. employers posted a record job openings for the second consecutive month in July — more affirmation that the labor market is bouncing back from last year’s coronavirus recession.

Job openings rose to 10.9 million in July, up from the previous record of 10.2 million in June, the Labor Department reported Wednesday.

But the department’s Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) report showed that actual hiring dipped slightly to 6.7 million in July, from 6.8 million in June. Layoffs rose slightly to 1.3 million.

Nearly 4 million people quit their jobs, just shy of a record set in April, and up from 3.9 million in June. That suggests many Americans are confident enough in their prospects to seek something new.

Prices that producers get for final demand goods and services surged in August at their highest annual rate since at least 2010, the Labor Department reported Friday.

The producer price index rose 0.7% for the month, above the 0.6% Dow Jones estimate, though below the 1% increase in July.

On a year-over-year basis, the gauge rose 8.3%, which is the biggest annual increase since records have been kept going back to November 2010. That came following a 7.8% move higher in July, which also set a record.

The data comes amid heightened inflation fears fed by supply chain issues, a shortage of various consumer and producer goods and heightened demand related to the Covid-19 pandemic. Federal Reserve officials expect inflationary pressures to ease through the year, but they have remained stubbornly persistent, with Friday’s numbers indicating that the trend likely will continue.

Excluding food, energy and trade services, final demand prices increased 0.3% for the month, below the 0.5% Dow Jones estimate. Still, that left core PPI up 6.3% from a year ago, also the largest record increase for data going back to August 2014.

WASHINGTON, Sept 13 (Reuters) - Underlying U.S. consumer prices increased at their slowest pace in six months in August, suggesting that inflation had probably peaked, though it could remain high for a while amid persistent supply constraints.

The Labor Department said on Tuesday its Consumer Price Index excluding the volatile food and energy components edged up 0.1% last month. That was the smallest gain since February and followed a 0.3% rise in July. The so-called core CPI increased 4.0% on a year-on-year basis after advancing 4.3% in July.

The overall CPI rose 0.3% last month after gaining 0.5% in July. In the 12 months through August, the CPI increased 5.3% after soaring 5.4% year-on-year in July.

Growing fears of China Evergrande defaulting rattled global markets on Monday as investors worried about the potential impact on the wider economy dumped Chinese property stocks and sought refuge in safe-haven assets.

Shares in Evergrande (3333.HK), which has been scrambling to raise funds to pay its many lenders, suppliers and investors, closed down 10.2% at HK$2.28 on Monday, after earlier plummeting 19% to its weakest level since May 2010.

Regulators have warned that its $305 billion of liabilities could spark broader risks to China's financial system if its debts are not stabilised.

For investors, the weather has turned ominous. Credit problems at real estate developer China Evergrande have stoked fears of contagion and a looming debt crisis in China. Investors—to cope—are going to have to watch credit default swaps again—just like they did a decade or so ago. Picking the right CDS will help investors determine just how bad the panic is getting.

A credit default swap is just what it sounds like. One party swaps the risk of a debt default with another party. It’s an insurance product. A CDS buyer is, essentially, taking out life insurance on a bond they own.

The CDS to watch isn’t China Evergrande (ticker: 3333.Hong Kong), however, That won’t tell investors anything they don’t already know. Evergrande stock is at a new 52-week low Monday, down another 10% in overseas trading. Shares are now down almost 90% from their October 2020 52-week high of $20.40 Hong Kong dollars per share.

The problem is too much debt. With today’s decline, Evergrande has about a $4 billion market capitalization and $90 billion in debt on its balance sheet, but $300 billion including unpaid bills. Fears of default are hitting markets everywhere. European stock markets are down about 2%. S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 1.3% and 1.6%, respectively.

Evergrande debt isn’t enough to derail the global economy on its own. The problem is if Evergrande problems lead to problems for lenders to Evergrande and then for other companies that need to borrow money from banks and the bond markets. That’s the nature of credit contagion.