Future Timeline

This guy is fairly prominent in the world of business/tech/futurology, and has been a great inspiration to me.

I think he deserves his own thread. We can discuss his latest ventures here.

https://www.diamandis.com/

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peter_Diamandis

Does he have any original ideas?

andmar74 wrote: ↑Wed Oct 27, 2021 4:09 pm Does he have any original ideas?

Sometimes it is equally important to put old ideas to fruition because it couldn't be done initially due to technological constraints at the time.

I think that Diamandis is basically right, about the mindset thing and exponential growth thing. I apply to my personal life his advice of not watching negative news and searching for positive news of exponential growth. I used to receive his newsletter for years. He was right about Bitcoin price rising exponentially, but I dislike cryptocurrencies, so I didn't buy. I don't think we need cryptocurrencies and I don't think Bitcoin is the best cryptocurrency.

He makes a mistake that he's overly optimistic. For example he says that computation for a given price doubles every 18 months, but it really doubles every 24 months. PS5 is 1000x (10 doublings) faster than PS2 20 years later. Intel Raptor Lake will be 2x faster than Intel Comet Lake, AMD RDNA 3 will be 2x faster than RDNA 2, both after 2 years. This means that after 20 years, he's wrong by a factor of 10.

I remember his 2013-2014 newsletter. He thought that medicine, tele-medicine, VR, AR, drones, flying cars and extraterrestrial mining will be significantly further than they are now. According to the experts he interviewed, VR and AR are supposed to widely used and accepted, for a dozen hours every day by 2024. It won't be true.