Future Timeline

Hence why I feel it's only a matter of time before we see tactical nukes used.

I think the chance of nukes being used is low. There's not much to gain from using them, and the risk is high.
I believe the Russian military is done. Putin is done. If the Russians don't leave Ukraine they will be kicked out. Putin will tell some story to the Russians and try to clinch to power. Russia will not be a serious military threat to any country for years to come.

andmar74 wrote: ↑Wed May 11, 2022 5:15 pmThere's not much to gain from using them, and the risk is high.

What worries me is that the same can be said about the war itself, yet here we are.

NATO saying that "Russia would be severely punished" if they'd use nukes isn't reassuring me either. It's not exactly clear what that punishment would look like. Since Russia is already being punished anyway, it seems like hot air to me.

Water wrote: ↑Wed May 11, 2022 6:28 pm

andmar74 wrote: ↑Wed May 11, 2022 5:15 pmThere's not much to gain from using them, and the risk is high.

What worries me is that the same can be said about the war itself, yet here we are.

NATO saying that "Russia would be severely punished" if they'd use nukes isn't reassuring me either. It's not exactly clear what that punishment would look like. Since Russia is already being punished anyway, it seems like hot air to me.

Well, Russia isn't completely cut off from the rest of the world at the moment. I imagine there is room for further sanctions. I think that's where the United States and Europe will head as a last resort measure.

It's not clear what military gains Russia would achieve by nuking. What will they nuke?

andmar74 wrote: ↑Wed May 11, 2022 6:47 pm It's not clear what military gains Russia would achieve by nuking. What will they nuke?

Against bands of resistance where they are most concentrated outside of large towns/cities around the Donbas area, I imagine.

But to achieve a strategic win, Russia will need to launch a volley of several, not one, tactical nukes over a wide area. I'm not even sure Russia is insane enough to go that far.

raklian wrote: ↑Wed May 11, 2022 6:49 pm

andmar74 wrote: ↑Wed May 11, 2022 6:47 pm It's not clear what military gains Russia would achieve by nuking. What will they nuke?

Against bands of resistance where they are most concentrated outside of large towns/cities around the Donbas area, I imagine.

But to achieve a strategic win, Russia will need to launch a volley of several, not one, tactical nukes over a wide area. I'm not even sure Russia is insane enough to go that far.

The only thing that bothers me about that is that I didn't think they were insane enough to launch the invasion in the first place. Although I knew it was a possibility, I thought it was probably more a matter of bluff. So, the "they are only just bluffing response" bothers me a bit.

Putin seen with blotches on cheeks after skipping beloved ice hockey game

May 11, 2022

Questions about Russian President Vladimir Putin’s health continued to swirl Wednesday as he missed his beloved annual ice hockey game – appearing instead on a video sporting mysterious marks on his face.

Putin pulled out of the Night Hockey League game in which he had been “expected” to compete and sent a video message while at Sochi, the Black Sea resort where the match was scheduled to take place, East2West News reported.

Adding to speculation about the strongman’s health were dark blotches on his cheeks that may have been masked by makeup.

“I wish you good luck in your ice battles and all the best,” Putin said in his message. “And as they say, ‘May the best win.’”

A Moscow source told the news outlet that the amateur game “was always a firm date in his [Putin’s] diary,” added that “something must be wrong for him to be a no-show.”

https://nypost.com/2022/05/11/putin-see ... ckey-game/

Yuli Ban wrote: ↑Fri May 13, 2022 6:40 am

What threats? lol. Russia is so paranoid.

Russian battalion wiped out in failed river crossing

10:20
What we know about Russia's failed river crossing

We've been reporting Russia's failed attempts to cross the Siversky Donets river, near Severodonetsk in eastern Ukraine.

Ukrainian forces are reported to have launched an attack to prevent Russian forces navigating the river.

British military intelligence says a Russian battalion lost almost all its armoured vehicles when Ukrainian forces shelled temporary floating bridges that Russian forces were using.

Ukrainian officials have claimed more than 1,000 soldiers could have been killed, but this number has not been verified and it remains unclear when the attack took place.

Ukrainian military first tweeted about the attack on Wednesday, though other messages were shared on social media and Telegram before this, purporting to show the attack.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-e ... type=share