Not quite. WW2 was already essentially over by the time we bombed the Japanese. If anything, it was the Soviet Union going to war with Japan that really got them to capitulate.
Re: Ukraine War Watch Thread
Posted: Tue Jan 24, 2023 1:20 pm
by ibm9000
Poland to ask EU for compensation for supplying tanks
Poland will ask the EU for compensation for the cost of Leopard 2 tanks it wants to send Ukraine, the Polish prime minister said on Tuesday.
“We will apply for reimbursement to the European Union, it will be another test of good will,” Mateusz Morawiecki told a news conference.
Maybe the whole business about the 14 tanks has a lot to do with tensions between the UE and Poland (not only about the judiciary) and not only about the good will towards Ukraine.
Re: Ukraine War Watch Thread
Posted: Tue Jan 24, 2023 8:24 pm
by weatheriscool
In reversal, US poised to approve Abrams tanks for Ukraine
Source: AP
WASHINGTON (AP) — In what would be a reversal, the Biden administration is poised to approve sending M1 Abrams tanks to Ukraine, U.S. officials said Tuesday, as international reluctance to send tanks to the battlefront against the Russians begins to erode. The decision could be announced as soon as Wednesday, though it could take months or years for the tanks to be delivered.
U.S. officials said details are still being worked out. One official said the tanks would be bought under an upcoming Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative package, which provides longer-range funding for weapons and equipment to be purchased from commercial vendors.
The U.S. announcement is expected to come on Wednesday in coordination with an announcement by Germany that it will approve Poland’s request to transfer German-made Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine, according to one official. The officials spoke on condition of anonymity because the decision has not yet been made public.
Weapons provided through USAI can take many months to several years to reach the battlefield. Much of the aid sent so far has been through a separate program drawing on Pentagon stocks to get weapons more quickly to Ukraine. But even under that program, it would take months to get tanks to Ukraine and to get Ukrainian forces trained on them.
The question is how many and when. When are enough crews going to be combat ready and when support (maintenance) is going to be ready. Three months at least, so four counting from now, but probably six, unless we decide to keep them in training for one year. (The second part of the Croatia-Serbia war; being very optimistic here). It's going to be even longer for the technicians, unless we decide to actively participate in this war.
But the security map of Europe has been redrawn, as have the dividing lines in the international diplomacy. Russia’s unprovoked invasion of another country has demonstrated more clearly than ever that moral values are not universal.
CNN.
Could we apply that to when Iraq Invaded Iran (and our support to Iraq)? Well, talking about Iraq... "Moral values" is a joke, right?
Re: Ukraine War Watch Thread
Posted: Wed Jan 25, 2023 2:05 pm
by weatheriscool
Germany agrees to provide Ukraine with advanced battle tanks
Source: AP
BERLIN (AP) — After weeks of hesitation that saw growing impatience among Germany’s allies, Chancellor Olaf Scholz announced Wednesday that his government would provide Ukraine with Leopard 2 battle tanks and approve requests by other countries to do the same.
In a statement, the German government said it would initially provide Ukraine with one company of Leopard 2 A6 tanks, which comprises 14 vehicles, from its own stocks. The goal is for Germany and its allies to provide Ukraine with a total of two battalions, or 88 tanks. “This decision follows our well-known line of supporting Ukraine to the best of our ability,” Scholz said after a Cabinet meeting in Berlin. Germany was “acting in close coordination” with its international allies, he added.
The long-awaited decision came after U.S. officials said Tuesday that a preliminary agreement had been struck for the United States to send M1 Abrams tanks to help Ukraine’s troops push back Russian forces that remain entrenched in the country’s east almost a year after Moscow’s invasion and war.
Scholz had insisted that any decision to provide Ukraine with powerful Leopard 2 tanks would need to be taken in conjunction with Germany’s allies, chiefly the United States. By getting Washington to commit some of its own tanks, Berlin hopes to share the risk of any backlash from Russia.
In a major increase of U.S. support to Ukraine, President Joe Biden has signed off on sending 31 M1 Abrams tanks to the war-torn country as concerns mount over a new Russian offensive this spring, according to senior administration officials.
"The reason for 31 is because that is how many tanks would constitute a Ukrainian tank battalion," a U.S. official told reporters in a conference call earlier Wednesday. "So we are specifically meeting that requirement."
The president is set to speak at noon ET from White House's Roosevelt Room on the "continued support for Ukraine," as Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has put out a direct appeal for more tanks with a harsh winter and the one-year anniversary of Russia's invasion approaching.
The U.S. announcement about its tank commitment comes the same day Germany has also pledged to send Ukraine 14 of its own Leopard 2 tanks.
I just read an expert giving his opinion: two months to train a crew; I think that is a bit optimistic. I can learn to play a PC game in a coupe of weeks... Getting a full crew doing a good teamwork?, getting a battalion or a company doing that? My non-expert opinion is that you need more than that even if you don't have to fly them to the States.
Is US sending the other 900 tanks? So far, 100 tanks, that's two (mixed) tank battalions, you do not win a war with two battalions, you may win a battle.
These western tanks all have greater mobility, more lethal firepower and stronger armour than those used by Russia. This also makes them heavier, which gives the lighter Russian tanks an advantage on boggy ground, of which there is no shortage in Ukraine once the thaw takes place. Even so, the modern western tanks’ control and navigation systems give them an all-round ability to operate in combined manoeuvres involving artillery and infantry, including at night, that the Russians cannot match.
The Guardian.
Because the Soviet Army never conducted offensives with Tank Armies and because officers only study how to command an infantry platoon, on foot. It seems that the "Blitzkrieg" has to be invented again, but only with these tanks...
Re: Ukraine War Watch Thread
Posted: Wed Jan 25, 2023 9:02 pm
by ibm9000
31 Abrams...
That's still a WW2 Soviet tank battalion. It is easier to train that, but what are they planning to win? Two armoured brigades, that's a small campaign, they "destroyed" 1.000 tanks and they expect that these ones are going to be untouchable?, because Russia has no ATM?
Re: Ukraine War Watch Thread
Posted: Thu Jan 26, 2023 3:54 pm
by ibm9000
During the Indochina War, US was providing up to 85% of funding.
Iran is providing weapons to Russia. We, are providing weapons to Ukraine.
We don't go around invading every dictatorship in the planet, we don't go around fighting "injustice" in every country, we don't go around providing weapons to every "invaded" country. Our interests are against Russia, the only difference is our own selfishness.
Am I missing something else?
Re: Ukraine War Watch Thread
Posted: Thu Jan 26, 2023 5:42 pm
by weatheriscool
Russia retaliates with mass missile attack on Ukraine after tanks promise
Source: The Guardian
Huge explosions shook Kyiv and sirens sounded across Ukraine on Thursday morning during a mass missile attack 24 hours after commitments were made by the US and Germany to send advanced battle tanks. There were reports of at least one person killed in the capital, Kyiv.
The Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov has this morning said that Moscow views sending tanks to Ukraine as “direct involvement in the conflict”.
A total of 30 missiles were said to be launched against targets in the war-torn country with Ukraine’s air defences having also shot down 24 Iranian-made Shahed “kamikaze” drones overnight.
“We expect more than 30 missiles, which have already started to appear in various territories,” said Yuriy Ignat, a Ukrainian military spokesperson. “Air defence systems are working.”
This stinks like Indochina-Vietnam all over again.
Maybe Boris (Johnson) should be the first to seat before that International Penal Court. It seems that in March, during the negotiations in Turkey, Boris told Ukraine not to sign a peace agreement, peace was not in the interest of US and Europe (debilitating Russia is certainly in US interests).
Someone mention something about Putin not negotiating "in good faith", A. Merkel stated that the whole Minsk II Agreement was to deceive Russia and that we, Western Democracies, never had any intention of implementing it. (A bit like the NI Protocol, by Boris).
Further arms deliveries to Ukraine will “pointlessly prolong the war”, with “more casualties on both sides and the continued destruction of the country”. They would also mean that “we will be drawn even deeper into this war”.
Well, it's winter, a pause, are we encouraging negotiations? or adding fuel to the fire?
Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Mark Milley said both Russia and Ukraine will have to realize that military victory is impossible to achieve and that a negotiated end to the conflict would end the suffering of war.
Harald Kujat, NATO.
Zeitgeschehen im Fokus. Financial Times, Foreign Affairs, Responsible Statecraft and Ukrainska Pravda about the March negotiations.
Re: Ukraine War Watch Thread
Posted: Sun Jan 29, 2023 3:44 am
by ººº
ibm9000 wrote: ↑Sun Jan 29, 2023 3:36 am
This stinks like Indochina-Vietnam all over again.
Maybe Boris (Johnson) should be the first to seat before that International Penal Court. It seems that in March, during the negotiations in Turkey, Boris told Ukraine not to sign a peace agreement, peace was not in the interest of US and Europe (debilitating Russia is certainly in US interests).
Someone mention something about Putin not negotiating "in good faith", A. Merkel stated that the whole Minsk II Agreement was to deceive Russia and that we, Western Democracies, never had any intention of implementing it. (A bit like the NI Protocol, by Boris).
Further arms deliveries to Ukraine will “pointlessly prolong the war”, with “more casualties on both sides and the continued destruction of the country”. They would also mean that “we will be drawn even deeper into this war”.
Well, it's winter, a pause, are we encouraging negotiations? or adding fuel to the fire?
Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Mark Milley said both Russia and Ukraine will have to realize that military victory is impossible to achieve and that a negotiated end to the conflict would end the suffering of war.
Harald Kujat, NATO.
Zeitgeschehen im Fokus. Financial Times, Foreign Affairs, Responsible Statecraft and Ukrainska Pravda about the March negotiations.
Russia could still win if Putin really tried (and assumed the consequences of doing so).
Re: Ukraine War Watch Thread
Posted: Sun Jan 29, 2023 3:08 pm
by funkervogt
Reality check: Russia still has major military and economic advantages over Ukraine. Unless the West continues supplying Ukraine with massive amounts of aid and weapons, the latter will lose a war of attrition with Russia.
Re: Ukraine War Watch Thread
Posted: Sun Jan 29, 2023 3:20 pm
by raklian
funkervogt wrote: ↑Sun Jan 29, 2023 3:08 pm
Reality check: Russia still has major military and economic advantages over Ukraine. Unless the West continues supplying Ukraine with massive amounts of aid and weapons, the latter will lose a war of attrition with Russia.
To defeat Ukraine militarily is one thing, but occupying a country that is getting continued support by NATO is a whole another thing. With Ukraine ultimately changing to model that involves mixing guerrilla tactics with conventional warfare, Russia will just continue to hemorrhage soldiers and equipment until it's no longer viable to keep them there. Additionally, the United States and Europe are working behind the scenes to isolate and undermine Russia's economic ability to sustain its offensive. In the off chance Russia starts making meaningful gains, NATO will escalate its support for Ukraine by sending it weapons and intelligence they've been reluctant to give. That's how important this conflict is to NATO - they really do not want Russia establishing a precedent for future scenarios involving other countries. Russia will have a very tough time keeping those gains. No matter how you look at it, Russia just can't win. It's more likely the conflict will end with Russia imploding by its own economic & political crisis, just like it did for the USSR in the early 90s.
Re: Ukraine War Watch Thread
Posted: Mon Jan 30, 2023 2:16 pm
by ibm9000
thedrive
About the Abrams... the Leopards the same, but a bit less.
Ukrainian troops “want to press the Russians to secure their terrain,” said Pat Donahoe (retired U.S. Army major general).“That will require the ability to fight through complex defensive areas, breach that and then be able to put a highly maneuverable armored force into the exploitation role through a penetration of those lines.” In sufficient numbers, the Abrams, he said, would be of great value in such an effort. How much difference can be made by 31 such tanks, enough to fill out one Ukrainian tank battalion, remains to be seen.
Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin “has been very focused on … not... providing the Ukrainians a system they can't repair, they can't sustain and they, over the long term, can't afford, because it's not helpful,” said Undersecretary of Defense for Policy Colin Kahl.
To succeed, it has to be part of a larger, combined arms effort that includes artillery, engineering, and intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance
elements “that knit together the extreme lethality and ability of a modern armored brigade, armored division concept... and so when you look at what the Ukrainians are asking from us, they are asking to develop mechanized forces on the western model.” - Or like the Soviet Tank Corps in WW2, already in Ukraine military academies... To date, one of the key reasons Ukraine has regained so much of the territory it initially lost has been - Russia abandoning that territory? its ability to carry out these combined arms maneuvers while Russia has not been able to. - But for the whole beginning of the war when the Russians were running all over the country. But “M1 formations require significant logistics capabilities.” - Like "The dog ate my homework"... before getting any homework. Abrams package included eight M-88 Hercules recovery vehicles. - One for every 4 MBT, what kind of offensive is that? You can have the world’s most superior tank, but if your crew is insufficiently trained, equipped, and logistically supported, then the ‘superior tank’ is worthless.” - The dog again... The training for new U.S. Abrams tank crew members is now 22 weeks, where it used to be 17 weeks up until a few years ago, “That is a lot of training and that is just their basic tank training and doesn’t include unit training once they arrive,” - Meaning platoon, company, battalion and the integration in a brigade. “You cannot just jump on the tank and go; especially the latest versions. - Unlike all that overoptimistic tanks-teletransportation-victory. The tankers equipped with the Abrams, and really any modern main battle tank such as the Leopoard, Leclerc, and Challenger, must go through extensive training both in tactics, vehicle operations, vehicle identification, maneuvers, vehicle capabilities, maintenance procedures, gunnery, etc to be a useful and successful crew. If time and training is not provided to the crews then it doesn’t matter what tank you operate.” - The captured Iranians Challengers were a lot more effectives in Iraqi hands; maybe, also, because they had free access to spares and manuals. The M1's turbine engine consumes a massive amount of fuel anytime the engine is running, which would be near continuously. An M-1
formation would require about 300 (like 1.400 ltrs) gallons every eight hours. Its fuel tank holds 500 gallons. Bottom line is that any formation company-sized or larger would require dedicated fuel trucks.The Abrams was designed with the assumption that it would be supported by the massive U.S. logistical tail. - The perfect weapon... if under perfect conditions: it will be Ukraine's fault. Keeping a steady supply of repair parts is of vital importance, too. “The M1 engine/ transmission is a complex machine that does not tolerate ‘shade tree’ mechanics. The engine/transmission weighs in at 2,500lb and is difficult to remove and work on. US M1 tank mechanics are well trained and resourced with repair parts and specialized tools.” - Not like the Ukrainians. First weapons, then logistics and then... we destroy the planet. “The Ukrainian T-84 weighs in at 46-51 tons; the M1A1 at 63 tons, the weight can be problematic when crossing bridges not designed to sustain that much weight.”
“While the Ukrainian soldiers undoubtedly have combat experience, they likely lack experience maneuvering formations at the company plus level,” referring to company-sized units and larger ones. “This experience is typically built in the U.S. at our maneuver centers. Learning how to maneuver and fight as a formation requires multiple iterations.” - Meaning in Ukraine manoeuvres were never conducted and their officers only study chess? The bottom line, is that the Abrams, once employed, “will have an immediate and overwhelming effect at the tactical/single battle level.” - Or not, if they are that clumsy. But the “proof of their ‘game-changing’ ability will be in the employment of a combined-arms campaign.” There is also the larger picture question of how Ukrainians will mesh together so many different tanks into a cohesive order of battle.
I just read: Leopards arriving at the end of spring, Abrams in summer.
Is US going to send logistic support?, contractors for maintenance?, advisors? and then troops to protect them?
Vietnamization: I hope US gives them a lot of weapons and then abandon them if the other alternative is WW3.
Re: Ukraine War Watch Thread
Posted: Mon Jan 30, 2023 2:25 pm
by ibm9000
Russia could still win if Putin really tried (and assumed the consequences of doing so).
"Win" is going to be a blurry concept. A puppet (not US puppet) regime?, keeping NATO at a safe distance?, Crimea and a sweet peace agreement?, the occupation of the country was never and objective.
One of the consequences is depleted arsenals, only US is posh enough to invade two countries in a row.
