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caltrek wrote: ↑Tue Oct 18, 2022 4:25 pm Anthony Blinken Indicates that Beijing is Speeding Up Plans to Seize Taiwan
by Rebecca Falconer

caltrek wrote: ↑Tue Oct 18, 2022 4:25 pm Anthony Blinken Indicates that Beijing is Speeding Up Plans to Seize Taiwan
by Rebecca Falconer
Updated October 18, 2022

Introduction:

(Axios) China's ruling party plans to annex Taiwan on a "much faster timeline" under Chinese President Xi Jinping than previously thought, Secretary of State Antony Blinken said Monday.

Of note: Blinken's comments at an event at Stanford University in California come days after Xi said during a Chinese Communist Party congress speech the "wheels of history are rolling on towards China's reunification" with Taiwan and "we reserve the option of taking all measures necessary."

What he's saying: "There has been a change in the approach from Beijing toward Taiwan in recent years," Blinken said at the Stanford forum with former Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice.

• "Instead of sticking with the status quo that was established in a positive way, a fundamental decision that the status quo was no longer acceptable and that Beijing was determined to pursue reunification on a much faster timeline," he continued.

• "And if peaceful means didn’t work, then it would employ coercive means and possibly, if coercive means don’t work, maybe forceful means — to achieve its objectives. And that is what is profoundly disrupting the status quo and creating tremendous tensions."

Read more here: https://www.axios.com/2022/10/18/china ... r-blinken

It looks like this was only the start. The news from the past few days is alarming at face value: it sounds like a near total ban on everything, TSMC fabbing only the start (!), now all ASML customer support† is gone (!!) not just EUV machines, on top of which all the American-citizen employees (a nontrivial fraction due to education/birth abroad) have halted work literally overnight (!!!), and overall what sounds like the collapse of Chinese semiconductors amidst a Chinese economy already showing serious signs of distress and little capacity to keep an industry on life-support indefinitely as they scramble to survive - and once they go down in a cascade of bankruptcies/liquidations*, each node killing the nodes dependent on it, and everything is sold off and liquidated and employees scatter to the four winds, rebuilding that semiconductor ecosystem (which has already cost $100b+ and decades to build in repeated efforts) years later, when even further behind, will be more like starting from scratch than turning on an idle car. (And how long might that be, if China is entering its 'lost decades'...?)

Or to put it another way, if the CCP tries to invade Taiwan in the next 10 years, historians are likely going to point to 2-3 days ago as the pivot: it is now a razor blade cutting China's throat if AI and high tech in general is the future, with nothing more to lose and everything to gain from destroying TSMC so no one else can have it either. (Meanwhile, the NYT front page story: "Companies Are Hoarding Workers. That Could Be Good News for the Economy." Glad our media is still doing a bangup job of keeping everything in perspective.)

The implications for AI scaling and timelines are also immense: aside from the obvious disaster for Chinese AI research, which will stagnate at present Chinchilla-level runs, any invasion attempt is tantamount to the destruction of TSMC (you can now be sure some cruise missiles will find their way to TSMC chip fabs conveniently set out as hostages on the western side of Taiwan & most definitely not hardened underground in Taiwan's mountains) and will set back scaling by years, possibly decades given the realities of chip fab, capital investment, globalized supply chains, tacit knowledge, experience curves, and risk premia leading to compounding falling behind exponential projections.

So uh... yikes? Is this really what's happening? Is there some ameliorating factor not covered in any of the reporting so far? We should all probably be paying way more attention to this than Elon Musk's latest bipolar antics, or even Putin's nuclear blackmail, because this appears to actually be happening right now, not merely possibly some day. We appear to live in interesting times.

funkervogt wrote: ↑Tue Oct 18, 2022 7:23 pm

caltrek wrote: ↑Tue Oct 18, 2022 4:25 pm Anthony Blinken Indicates that Beijing is Speeding Up Plans to Seize Taiwan
by Rebecca Falconer
Updated October 18, 2022

Introduction:

(Axios) China's ruling party plans to annex Taiwan on a "much faster timeline" under Chinese President Xi Jinping than previously thought, Secretary of State Antony Blinken said Monday.

Of note: Blinken's comments at an event at Stanford University in California come days after Xi said during a Chinese Communist Party congress speech the "wheels of history are rolling on towards China's reunification" with Taiwan and "we reserve the option of taking all measures necessary."

What he's saying: "There has been a change in the approach from Beijing toward Taiwan in recent years," Blinken said at the Stanford forum with former Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice.

• "Instead of sticking with the status quo that was established in a positive way, a fundamental decision that the status quo was no longer acceptable and that Beijing was determined to pursue reunification on a much faster timeline," he continued.

• "And if peaceful means didn’t work, then it would employ coercive means and possibly, if coercive means don’t work, maybe forceful means — to achieve its objectives. And that is what is profoundly disrupting the status quo and creating tremendous tensions."

Read more here: https://www.axios.com/2022/10/18/china ... r-blinken

Disturbing that one of the highest-ranking members of the U.S. government is saying this.

(The Asahi Shimbun) TOKYO--Between China’s 20th Communist Party Congress, that began Sunday, and the next one in 2027, Japan will undertake its biggest arms buildup since World War Two in a race to deter Beijing from war in East Asia, according to Japanese government officials and security analysts.

Japan identified China as its chief adversary in its 2019 defense white paper, worried that Beijing’s flouting of international norms, pressure on Taiwan and rapid military modernization posed a serious security threat. That anxiety has intensified since Russia invaded Ukraine, weakening Japanese public opposition to rearming, security experts say.

Japan’s government “has the wind at its back and will use that to do whatever it can,” said Takashi Kawakami, a professor at Takushoku University in Tokyo. By pointing to 2027 as the moment when East Asia’s power balance may tip in China’s favor, Japan’s government can rally support for greater defense spending, he added.

In addition to being the next time Communist Party delegates gather in Beijing, 2027 is the next major milestone on China’s military modernization roadmap and the centennial of the founding of the People’s Liberation Army. At a congressional hearing last year, U.S. Indo-Pacific commander Admiral Philip Davidson said that China’s threat against Taiwan could “manifest” that year.

For Japan, losing Taiwan to mainland Chinese control could be a disaster because it would jeopardize key shipping lanes that supply nearly all Japan’s oil and many of the materials it uses for manufacturing. It would also give the Chinese navy unfettered access to the Western Pacific from bases on the island.

TAIPEI, Taiwan (AP) — China’s military sent 71 planes and seven ships toward Taiwan in a 24-hour display of force directed at the island, Taiwan’s defense ministry said Monday, after China expressed anger at Taiwan-related provisions i n a U.S. annual defense spending bill passed on Saturday.

China’s military harassment of self-ruled Taiwan, which it claims is its own territory, has intensified in recent years, and the Communist Party’s People’s Liberation Army has sent planes or ships toward the island on a near-daily basis.

Between 6 a.m. Sunday and 6 a.m. Monday, 47 of the Chinese planes crossed the median of the Taiwan Strait, an unofficial boundary once tacitly accepted by both sides, according to Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense.

Among the planes China sent towards Taiwan were 18 J-16 fighter jets, 11 J-1 fighters, 6 Su-30 fighters and drones.

5 minutes ago

Taiwanese soldiers are seen holding grenade launchers and machine guns during an operation as part of the 37th edition of the HanKuang military exercise on September 14, 2021. Taiwanese soldiers are seen holding grenade launchers and machine guns during an operation as part of the 37th edition of the HanKuang military exercise on September 14, 2021.

The systems, worth $180 million, "serve US national, economic and security interests," the Pentagon said. The sale comes after China conducted one of its largest incursions into Taiwan-controlled airspace to date.

The US State Department has approved the sale of vehicle-launched anti-tank systems to Taiwan worth $180 million (€169 million), as tensions between Taipei and Beijing continue to rise.

The Pentagon said approval for the sale came late Wednesday and also includes Volcano anti-tank munition-laying systems, cargo trucks, ammunition and logistics support packages, among other services.

The Defense Department said the sale aims to serve "US national, economic, and security interests by supporting the recipient's continuing efforts to modernize its armed forces and to maintain a credible defensive capability."

lechwall wrote: ↑Mon Jan 02, 2023 7:05 pm I don't see an invasion this year. China will be too distracted with reopening for the first half of the year after which time you're into typhoon season when its very unlikely you would try to invade.

What happened? John Pomfret and Matt Pottinger—a former Washington Post Beijing bureau chief and former Trump administration official who resigned in protest over January 6 and then testified before the January 6th Committee, respectively—argue that recent statements and policy moves by the Chinese government show a distinct willingness on the part of dictator Xi Jinping and his ruling Chinese Communist Party to go to war in an attempt to conquer Taiwan. Xi’s aggressive statements in recent annual party gatherings and legal changes intended to grease the wheels of military mobilization all suggest that Beijing appears to be preparing for war—possibly with the United States.

Why does it matter? It’s important to take what Xi says seriously, Pomfret and Pottinger contend, because his earlier rhetoric about economic and technological decoupling, campaigns against domestic economic institutions, and zero-COVID policy have all been followed up with action. Though Xi “is clearly willing to use force to take” Taiwan, they note that it “remains unclear is whether he thinks he can do so without risking uncontrolled escalation with the United States.”

TLP’s take: War with China over Taiwan remains a frightening but all-too-real possibility given Xi’s rhetoric and moves—one that the United States should work diligently to prevent. But maintaining Taiwan’s status quo also remains a vital American national interest, both in terms of protecting a vibrant democracy from the depredations of its autocratic neighbor and in safeguarding a critical node of the global semiconductor manufacturing industry.



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(Bloomberg) -- Philippines President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. said the US can’t use military bases in his country for “offensive action” against China in the event of a future war over Taiwan, as the Southeast Asian nation continues to balance strengthening American defense ties with increasing pressure from Beijing.

“I think we are in lockstep with the US with that,” Marcos said. “And that they understand the concerns that the Philippines has, and are sensitive to the reasons why we have those concerns.”

Marcos, speaking at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington on Thursday, said the Biden administration had never raised the possibility that the military bases provided under an expanded defense cooperation agreement could become “staging areas for any offensive action against any country.”

The Philippines leader, who was elected last year, said he had even reassured Chinese Foreign Minister Qin Gang over American use of the sites when the top Chinese diplomat visited in late April.

“I assured him that no, these are not intended to be military bases to attack, to move against anyone, any country — not China, not any country,” Marcos said in a question-and-answer session following remarks on US-Philippine relations.

SINGAPORE (AP) — China’s defense minister defended sailing a warship across the path of an American destroyer and Canadian frigate transiting the Taiwan Strait, telling a gathering of some of the world’s top defense officials in Singapore on Sunday that such so-called “freedom of navigation” patrols are a provocation to China.

In his first international public address since becoming defense minister in March, Gen. Li Shangfu told the Shangri-La Dialogue that China doesn’t have any problems with “innocent passage” but that “we must prevent attempts that try to use those freedom of navigation (patrols), that innocent passage, to exercise hegemony of navigation.”

U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin told the same forum Saturday that Washington would not “flinch in the face of bullying or coercion” from China and would continue regularly sailing through and flying over the Taiwan Strait and the South China Sea to emphasize they are international waters, countering Beijing’s sweeping territorial claims.

That same day, as a U.S. guided-missile destroyer and a Canadian frigate were intercepted by a Chinese warship as they transited the strait between the self-governed island of Taiwan, which China claims as its own territory, and mainland China. The Chinese vessel overtook the American ship and then veered across its bow at a distance of 150 yards (about 140 meters) in an “unsafe manner,” according to the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command.

TAIPEI, Aug 14 (Reuters) - Taiwan will not be afraid nor back down in the face of authoritarian threats, the island's vice president told supporters on a U.S. visit that Beijing has condemned, while reiterating a willingness to talk to China.

William Lai, also frontrunner to be Taiwan's next president at January elections, is in the United States on what is officially a transit stop on his way to Paraguay for the inauguration of its new president. Paraguay is one of only 13 countries to maintain formal ties with the Chinese-claimed island.

Taiwan and the United States both say the stopovers, including one in San Francisco on the way back, are routine, but China has denounced them and called Lai a separatist "troublemaker". Lai told a supporters lunch in New York on Sunday that "if Taiwan is safe, the world is safe, if the Taiwan Strait is peaceful, then the world is peaceful", according to Taiwan's presidential office.

"No matter how great the threat of authoritarianism is to Taiwan, we absolutely will not be scared nor cower, we will uphold the values of democracy and freedom," he said. China considers Taiwan its most important diplomatic issue, and is a constant source of friction between Beijing and Washington, which is the island's most important international backer and arms supplier.

Taiwan is “not for sale,” and neither is it part of China, said Taiwan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, in a rebuke to Elon Musk who called the island “an integral part of China.”

“Listen up, Taiwan is not part of the PRC and certainly not for sale!” Taiwan’s Minister of Foreign Affairs Joseph Wu said late Wednesday on X, also formerly known as Twitter. PRC refers to the People’s Republic of China, the official name of China.

The message was in response to a comment made by Musk during the All-In Summit, which was recently held in Los Angeles.

“I think I understand China well. I’ve been there many times and have met with senior leadership at many levels .. for many years,” Musk said. “I think I’ve got a pretty good understanding as an outsider of China.”

TAIPEI, Taiwan -- China’s military sent 103 warplanes toward Taiwan in a 24-hour period in what the island’s defense ministry said Monday was a daily record in recent times.

The planes were detected between 6 a.m. on Sunday and 6 a.m. on Monday, the ministry said. As is customary, they turned back before reaching Taiwan.

China, which claims Taiwan as part of its territory, has conducted increasingly large military drills in the air and waters around Taiwan as tensions have grown between the two and with the United States. The U.S. is Taiwan’s main supplier of arms and opposes any attempt to change Taiwan’s status by force.

Taiwan’s Defense Ministry said that 40 of the planes crossed the symbolic halfway point between mainland China and the island. It also reported nine naval vessels in the previous 24 hours.