Future Timeline

China could mount full scale invasion of Taiwan by 2025, island’s defence minister says

Wed 6 Oct 2021 04.31 BST

China will be capable of mounting a full scale invasion of Taiwan by 2025, the island’s defence minister Chiu Kuo-cheng has said, describing current tensions as the worst in 40 years.

Speaking to the China Times on Wednesday, Chiu said China was capable now, but would be completely prepared to launch an invasion in three years.

“By 2025, China will bring the cost and attrition to its lowest. It has the capacity now, but it will not start a war easily, having to take many other things into consideration,” he said.

Beijing sent about 150 warplanes into Taiwan’s air defence zone over four days beginning on Friday, the same day China marked a key patriotic holiday, in a record escalation of its grey zone military activity directed towards the island.

Beijing claims Taiwan as a province of China and has vowed to retake it, by force if necessary, and accuses its democratically elected government of being separatists. Taiwan’s government says it is already a sovereign nation with no need to declare independence. On Tuesday Taiwan’s president Tsai Ing-wen wrote that Taiwan would not be “adventurists” but would do “whatever it takes” to defend itself.

Read more: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/ ... -agreement



Credit: Reuters

'Does Beijing have a timetable for seizing control of Taiwan?...I believe such a timetable exists. If the timeline was rather vague in the past, it has become clearer now. And the US security strategy that President Donald Trump recently unveiled will hasten the pace of Beijing’s plan to take back the island, probably in 2020.'

https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-op ... force-2020

Something tells me the United States will deflate and withdraw without supporting Taiwan when China does earnestly begin the full-scale invasion. The political will just isn't there as Congress will once again be bitterly divided and gridlocked. I don't think Biden will want to give the impression he's risking American lives just to save some island right next to China. Most Americans probably can't pinpoint where Taiwan is.

raklian wrote: ↑Wed Oct 06, 2021 1:55 pm Something tells me the United States will deflate and withdraw without supporting Taiwan when China does earnestly begin the full-scale invasion. The political will just isn't there as Congress will once again be bitterly divided and gridlocked. I don't think Biden will want to give the impression he's risking American lives just to save some island right next to China. Most Americans probably can't pinpoint where Taiwan is.

If a conflict happens, I think it's likelier that Taiwan will "deflate" by bungling its own defense and surrendering to China even though further resistance was possible. America would be able and willing to help, but we'd question whether it was worth it considering that the Taiwanese were too cowardly to fight hard for themselves.

As expected. China would be foolish to just let Taiwan and Hong Kong persist as independent entities; absorbing them all but boosts their economic standing in the world by at least a fourth of what it already is. As for whether they morally should, well morals never got in the way of imperial expansion.

The only risk is getting the USA involved, and there's certainly incentive for it considering Taiwan's superconductor industry. However, I think the tech companies are willing to just work with China instead of blowing everything up.

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Xi Jinping vows Taiwan’s ‘reunification’ with China will be fulfilled

Sat 9 Oct 2021 06.51 BST

China’s president, Xi Jinping, has vowed to realise “reunification” with Taiwan, without mentioning the use of force, after a week of tensions.

Taiwan responded shortly after by calling on Beijing to abandon its coercion, reiterating that only Taiwan’s people could decide their future.

Democratically run Taiwan has come under increased military and political pressure to accept Beijing’s sovereignty, but Taiwan says it is an independent country, using its formal name: the Republic of China.

Speaking at Beijing’s Great Hall of the People on Saturday, Xi said the Chinese people had a “glorious tradition” of opposing separatism.

“Taiwan’s independence separatism is the biggest obstacle to achieving the reunification of the motherland, and the most serious hidden danger to national rejuvenation,” he said on the anniversary of the revolution that overthrew China’s last imperial dynasty in 1911. Taiwan marks 10 October, when the revolution began, as its national day.

Xi said “reunification through a peaceful manner is the most in line with the overall interest of the Chinese nation, including Taiwan compatriots”, but added that China will protect its sovereignty and unity.

“No one should underestimate the Chinese people’s staunch determination, firm will, and strong ability to defend national sovereignty and territorial integrity,” Xi said.

“The historical task of the complete reunification of the motherland must be fulfilled, and will definitely be fulfilled.”

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/ ... -fulfilled



Credit: Carlos García Rawlins/Reuters

erowind wrote: ↑Wed Oct 06, 2021 9:35 pm America doesn't have the capability to fight a prolonged conventional war with China within range of Chinese rocket artillery and air defense systems. China's missile defense arsenal makes it impossible for the US navy to operate within range meaning that the US would be largely restricted to using strategic bombers and cruise missiles to inflict damage on Chinese industry.

Funny how the graphic doesn't show the radii of American missiles and bombers. It doesn't mention that missiles are useless if you don't know where your target is (namely, enemy warships), which is a major problem China will have during any war with the U.S.

Also, the U.S. has much better attack subs, they are virtually undetectable, and they'd inflict major damage on the Chinese navy, inside China's territorial waters. Again, that's not depicted in the graphic.

China's possessions in the Spratly Island chain are also indefensible and would be destroyed in the first days of war with the U.S., so you should mentally delete the red circles in the South China Sea. Again, the graphic doesn't say anything about that.

Yuli Ban wrote: ↑Wed Oct 06, 2021 9:10 pm As expected. China would be foolish to just let Taiwan and Hong Kong persist as independent entities; absorbing them all but boosts their economic standing in the world by at least a fourth of what it already is. As for whether they morally should, well morals never got in the way of imperial expansion.

There's also an argument to be made that letting Taiwan remain independent serves the political interests of the Chinese government.
https://supchina.com/2021/06/07/no-chin ... de-taiwan/

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Taiwan national day: we won’t bow to China, says president amid tensions

Sun 10 Oct 2021 06.28 BST

No one will force Taiwan to take the path laid out by Beijing, president Tsai Ing-wen has vowed on the Taiwanese national day, pledging to continue bolstering the island’s military defences.

Responding to repeated threats from China’s leaders that it will one day take Taiwan – by force if need be – and overthrow its democratically elected government, Tsai said Taiwan had the resolve to defend itself and its future, which “must be decided in accordance with the will of the Taiwanese people”.

Tsai made the comments at formal celebrations in Taipei on Sunday, at the end of one of the most tense weeks between China and Taiwan for decades, including record numbers of Chinese military flights into Taiwan’s defence zone and a speech by President Xi Jinping of China vowing reunification with Taiwan.

Tsai said Taiwan would not “act rashly” but “there should be absolutely no illusions that the Taiwanese people will bow to pressure”.

“We will continue to bolster our national defence and demonstrate our determination to defend ourselves in order to ensure that nobody can force Taiwan to take the path China has laid out for us,” she said. “This is because the path that China has laid out offers neither a free and democratic way of life for Taiwan, nor sovereignty for our 23 million people.”

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/ ... -president

erowind wrote: ↑Sun Oct 10, 2021 10:31 am On the Spratly islands point specifically, support your claim instead of making a statement that amounts to "I snarkily say it is therefore it is."

I don't think I was being "snarky."

This article supports my claim about the Spratly Islands being indefensible against U.S. attack.

https://nationalinterest.org/blog/reboo ... ake-187466

erowind wrote: ↑Sun Oct 10, 2021 10:31 am Well, I wrote a giant reply but the forum autologged me out (a new "feature" I despise about this version of the forum) and I lost a good few pages worth of writing.

Sorry to hear that. It's never happened to me on here – not sure what happened in your case.

Tip: I always copy long posts to notepad before pasting the final version to the Internet, so there's a backup in case of problems like this.

I wouldn't be surprised to see china attacking before 2025.

weatheriscool wrote: ↑Mon Oct 11, 2021 12:39 am I wouldn't be surprised to see china attacking before 2025.

I think the opposite (After 2025, even around 2030)

Lurking wrote: ↑Mon Oct 11, 2021 4:55 am

weatheriscool wrote: ↑Mon Oct 11, 2021 12:39 am I wouldn't be surprised to see china attacking before 2025.

I think the opposite (After 2025, even around 2030)

Actually I think it might happen around the 2023-26 range, maybe even after the 2024 Taiwanese general election, assuming that the DPP gets their second president elected. The problem is how it might happen. Will it be western ignorance, allowing China to strategically take the weak spot in their calculation or will it be out of impatience and overhyping by young keyboard ultranationalists to the point that they have to execute it as soon as possible? To be fair, I think the former is more of a possibility than the latter, but I won’t be surprised if either happened.

China vows no concessions on Taiwan after Biden comments
Source: AP

BEIJING (AP) — China on Friday said there is “no room” for compromise or concessions over the issue of Taiwan, following a comment by U.S. President Joe Biden that the U.S. is committed to defending the island if it is attacked.

Foreign Ministry spokesperson Wang Wenbin reasserted China’s longstanding claim that the island is its territory at a daily briefing after Biden made his comment a day before at a forum hosted by CNN.

China has recently upped its threat to bring Taiwan under its control by force if necessary by flying warplanes near the island and rehearsing beach landings.

“When it comes to issues related to China’s sovereignty and territorial integrity and other core interests, there is no room for China to compromise or make concessions, and no one should underestimate the strong determination, firm will and strong ability of the Chinese people to defend national sovereignty and territorial integrity,” Wang said.

Read more: https://apnews.com/article/joe-biden-ch ... 6b5f8c9c29

What are the odds the greatest technology hub of the planet would be right beside a dictatorship ready to blow it up to conquer it. This is very unfortunate.

Now with a weakened western world is just a matter of when and not if.

R8Z wrote: ↑Fri Oct 22, 2021 6:02 pm What are the odds the greatest technology hub of the planet would be right beside a dictatorship ready to blow it up to conquer it. This is very unfortunate.

Now with a weakened western world is just a matter of when and not if.

im going to hold my tongue on most of this but since when was Taiwan a technology hub? Israel, Japan and the US come to mind when it comes to technology.

To play the devil's advocate, they have been saying China would invade since the 1970s. Its almost as if media publishes news in news cycles to keep people distracted from real issues. Nothing will happen and then 5 years later we will start seeing a resurgence in Chinese invasion stories.

I have read Xi Jingpings books and controlling Taiwan is one of Chinas biggest priorities.