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Are Ray Kurzweils AI predictions on track?
Posted: Mon Sep 20, 2021 3:55 am
by Ozzie guy
Ray's only predictions I care about are the AI ones.
Given recent developments in AI is his predictions about AI correct (whist maybe true in a different form is their ability in line with what he predicted) as this would indicate his human level AGI before 2030 prediction is correct.
Re: Are Ray Kurzweils AI predictions on track?
Posted: Mon Sep 20, 2021 6:06 am
by andmar74
I think so. Now, it's a long time since I read his "Singularity is near", but his main prediction is the passing of the Turing test in 2029. I think that is likely, although I think the AI will be very different from human I, so tweaking is needed for the AI to answer more similar to humans.
I don't agree with his prediction that it takes 16 years before the AGI is mature and the singularity happens. It will be much faster, I believe.
Re: Are Ray Kurzweils AI predictions on track?
Posted: Mon Sep 20, 2021 2:01 pm
by funkervogt
You can read all about how Kurzweil's predictions about AI and everything else are faring here:
https://www.militantfuturist.com/how-ra ... re-faring/
https://www.militantfuturist.com/the-ku ... nt-matter/
Be warned, you'll need 45 minutes to get through it all.
Re: Are Ray Kurzweils AI predictions on track?
Posted: Mon Sep 20, 2021 6:21 pm
by Yuli Ban
Going by Kurzweil's track record, his predictions are largely 10-15 years behind the reality. We're certainly catching up on several of those we missed for 2009, though he's now wrong about there being no economic downturn; he couldn't foresee COVID-19.
