Are we still on track?

[Metalane]

Hello!

I'm a user who used to frequent these forums in hope to gain some insight about what to expect in the near future regarding AGI, neural-networks, entertainment, etc. But unfortunately due to life circumstances, I haven't been able to focus on all of this for a about a year now.

Now, my question for those who have been keeping up... have there been any bottlenecks, slow-downs, etc, that made us change our trajectory for when we expect major breakthroughs such as AGI, accessible holography, RTSC, etc, to emerge? It's just that as I was scanning over a few recent posts it seems some of us here are more pessimistic than we used to be.

[caltrek]

Hello!

I'm a user who used to frequent these forums in hope to gain some insight about what to expect in the near future regarding AGI, neural-networks, entertainment, etc. But unfortunately due to life circumstances, I haven't been able to focus on all of this for a about a year now.

Now, my question for those who have been keeping up... have there been any bottlenecks, slow-downs, etc, that made us change our trajectory for when we expect major breakthroughs such as AGI, accessible holography, RTSC, etc, to emerge? It's just that as I was scanning over a few recent posts it seems some of us here are more pessimistic than we used to be.

Funny you should ask:

https://www.futuretimeline.net/data-tre ... es-law.htm

I personally am not much of a forecaster, especially when it comes to such technical topics. Supply chain issues have been a problem, especially with Covid, but that is more of an economic issue as opposed to a technical development issue.

Technical developments do seem to multiply options for growth. What may seem to be an insurmountable obstacle often seems to dealt with by somebody thinking outside the box. At least that is a vague impression that I have. I can't even think of specific concrete examples to illustrate that point, at least not in the fields you specified.

[wjfox]

Hello!

I'm a user who used to frequent these forums in hope to gain some insight about what to expect in the near future regarding AGI, neural-networks, entertainment, etc. But unfortunately due to life circumstances, I haven't been able to focus on all of this for a about a year now.

Now, my question for those who have been keeping up... have there been any bottlenecks, slow-downs, etc, that made us change our trajectory for when we expect major breakthroughs such as AGI, accessible holography, RTSC, etc, to emerge? It's just that as I was scanning over a few recent posts it seems some of us here are more pessimistic than we used to be.

Welcome back, Metalane.

AI is now progressing faster than Moore's Law, at least where language processing is concerned. Synthesia for example looks amazing, and then there's all the multi-trillion parameter models starting to emerge.

Brain-computer interfaces are making leaps and bounds – some very promising developments lately, e.g. Kernel, Neuralink.

Biotech is progressing nicely. mRNA looks like being a potentially revolutionary technology. There's been some excellent progress in aging/longevity research too.

Computers in general have seen chip shortages and price rises. We're still waiting for the first exaFLOP supercomputer, already delayed by a few years. However, Moore's Law remains on track (as I've posted about this week).

Japan is developing some cool holographic systems – https://www.futuretimeline.net/blog/202 ... nology.htm

What is RTSC?

Overall, we seem to be "on track" for most areas of science and tech. To paraphrase one of my favourite futurology quotes: We tend to overestimate what can be done in five years, and to underestimate what can be done in 20 years.

The global situation does look worrying though, with increasing uncertainty over Russia/Ukraine, the outcome of the pandemic, climate change, etc...