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Detailed AI predictions between now and the 2060
Posted: Fri Dec 16, 2022 4:05 pm
by funkervogt
This is a long read, but rewarding:
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/qRtD4Wq ... ht-be-wild
He forecasts the emergence of AGI that is superior to humans in all types of cognition and labor in the 2050s. I think that's reasonable.
However, the lead up to that will see steady improvement to narrow AI and robots that transform countless aspects of life.
Re: Detailed AI predictions between now and the 2060
Posted: Tue Dec 20, 2022 8:15 pm
by bretbernhoft
Am I mistaken when I recall that Ray Kurzweil predicts AGI by 2045?
Re: Detailed AI predictions between now and the 2060
Posted: Wed Dec 21, 2022 1:50 am
by spryfusion
bretbernhoft wrote: ↑Tue Dec 20, 2022 8:15 pm
Am I mistaken when I recall that Ray Kurzweil predicts AGI by 2045?
He predicts AGI by 2029 and the Singularity in 2045.
Re: Detailed AI predictions between now and the 2060
Posted: Wed Dec 21, 2022 2:36 pm
by funkervogt
spryfusion wrote: ↑Wed Dec 21, 2022 1:50 am
bretbernhoft wrote: ↑Tue Dec 20, 2022 8:15 pm
Am I mistaken when I recall that Ray Kurzweil predicts AGI by 2045?
He predicts AGI by 2029 and the Singularity in 2045.
Kurzweil predicted the Turing Test would be passed by 2029, which I think most of us would now agree is likely. However, I'm not sure if he also predicted AGI would be invented by that date. I remember his writings vaguely insinuating that only a machine with some kind of intelligent awareness would be capable of passing the Turing Test, but not an explicit statement that such a machine would be an AGI.
Re: Detailed AI predictions between now and the 2060
Posted: Wed Dec 21, 2022 6:44 pm
by spryfusion
funkervogt wrote: ↑Wed Dec 21, 2022 2:36 pm
spryfusion wrote: ↑Wed Dec 21, 2022 1:50 am
bretbernhoft wrote: ↑Tue Dec 20, 2022 8:15 pm
Am I mistaken when I recall that Ray Kurzweil predicts AGI by 2045?
He predicts AGI by 2029 and the Singularity in 2045.
Kurzweil predicted the Turing Test would be passed by 2029, which I think most of us would now agree is likely. However, I'm not sure if he also predicted AGI would be invented by that date. I remember his writings vaguely insinuating that only a machine with some kind of intelligent awareness would be capable of passing the Turing Test, but not an explicit statement that such a machine would be an AGI.
Read Kurzweil's argument in his bet against Mitchell Kapor. He claims that only an AI with human-level intelligence would be able to pass a Turing Test with competent human judges:
https://longbets.org/1/
The Significance of the Turing Test. The implicit, and in my view brilliant, insight in Turing's eponymous test is the ability of written human language to represent human-level thinking. The basis of the Turing test is that if the human Turing test judge is competent, then an entity requires human-level intelligence in order to pass the test. The human judge is free to probe each candidate with regard to their understanding of basic human knowledge, current events, aspects of the candidate's personal history and experiences, as well as their subjective experiences, all expressed through written language. As humans jump from one concept and one domain to the next, it is possible to quickly touch upon all human knowledge, on all aspects of human, well, humanness.
Re: Detailed AI predictions between now and the 2060
Posted: Wed Dec 21, 2022 7:31 pm
by funkervogt
Knowing Kurzweil, he has a lawyerly explanation for why a "human-level intelligence" is not necessarily an "AGI."
I swear that, once the Turing Test is passed but it becomes clear the machine is not an AGI, Kurzweil will have an excuse ready to vindicate his prediction.
