Future Timeline

Dr Alan D. Thompson now says we are 48% of the way on "Alan’s conservative countdown to AGI"

https://lifearchitect.ai/agi/

I don't know much about this guy people seem to respect him and he seems smart/educated on AI.

wjfox wrote: ↑Sat Mar 25, 2023 9:55 am

Just in time to witness the biggest (in scale) ecological crisis humanity has seen until now.

wjfox wrote: ↑Sat Mar 25, 2023 9:55 am

I wouldn't feel too lucky if it ends badly...
BTW I wouldn't say the worst outcome is death (though obviously that is bad) there are things worse than death like a I have no mouth and I must scream scenario

I don't really believe in The Singularity anymore. I don't really believe that extreme things will happen. I think that's implausible, unlikely and unrealistic. Maybe good for science-fiction books, movies or games.

I think in 20 years life will be recognizable and similar to today, but not entirely. More people on the planet will enjoy a higher standard of living. There will be more of everything. No WW3, no asteroid impact, no supervolcanoe eruption. Global GDP will be about double today's. There will be a plethora of smaller and bigger improvements in many things and many places. Our lives will be visibly improved, but not by a huge amount. There will be less pain and suffering among humans, but not gone completely. Fusion will be practical. Large-scale energy storage will be practical. SpaceX Starship will routinely go somewhere. Lots and lots of electric (and sometimes even fully autonomous, even without a driving wheel) vehicles. Airplanes and ships will still run on oil. AR glasses will finally become practical, useful and comfortable, but serious work will still be done on a server, workstation, desktop PC or a laptop (or manually by hand). There will be laptops lasting 85-100 hours on a single charge. AI will be extremely knowledgeable, it will be much wiser and smarter than an average human. AI will present no ill-intent by itself, because it won't be as narrow-minded as some humans. AI and researchers will be still limited by computing resources. More illnesses will be curable or at least manageable. An average person will earn more and stuff will get somewhat cheaper because of automation. Working conditions will improve. There will be no widespread UBI or "technological unemployment". Unemployment level will be similar to 2023. There will be more people between 90 and 100 years old. 3D printing organs for transplantation will be a serious thing, that will be gradually getting widespread. Exoskeletons will get practical for various use cases (they will be even replacing wheelchairs). Biped robots will be hired to work in factories, warehouses, supermarkets and other places. There will be no nanobots and neural implants will be used only by people with severe problems + some tech enthusiasts. Normal people will use AR glasses, smartwatches, TVs and laptops. More things will have computers, Internet connection and even displays built into them. There will be a lot more sensors around. VR and gaming as a whole will be more popular. People will talk, (role)play and learn in virtual realities, but they won't be any more advanced than what was shown in the Ready Player One movie. Designer-babies will be slowly starting to become a thing. There will be artificial wombs available for mothers or fathers to grow their children there, but most people won't accept them yet. Climate will be a bit different, because that's what climate always does - it cyclically changes. Fearmongerers of "misaligned AI" and "climate change" will seem silly by then. But people will find something to be scared about, because that's what some people do. There will still be horror movies and dystopian novels. There will be still people who talk and write about "The Singularity" (and still people who ridicule it). Life will continue.

evolution's ultimate goal.

a slight nitpick but i'm pretty sure most evolutionary biologists would disagree with that statement. it doesn't have an ultimate goal.

MythOfProgress wrote: ↑Sat Apr 01, 2023 11:08 pm

evolution's ultimate goal.

a slight nitpick but i'm pretty sure most evolutionary biologists would disagree with that statement. it doesn't have an ultimate goal.

It kinda does. It's to reach the lowest possible energy state. In other words, entropy. One could argue it's more about physics than biology, though.

I think the 6 month pause AI letter will do nothing.
Can you really imagine multibillion dollar companies competing with each other and other countries stopping development for 6 months because of a letter not to mention a lot of the signatures were fake.

It did make AGI/singularity/end of the world get exposed in mainstream media which may have been the real goal.