The Great "copes" in the futurist/singularity community.
Posted: Fri Jan 28, 2022 1:12 am
It is highly likely the singularity community will go through two great "copes"
The 2029 cope (I am going to be a victim of this despite knowing about it lmao)
Tick tok tick tock "happy new years!" It is now the year 2030 it is likely we don't have human level AGI and we are not close to human level AGI. 100,000 plus futurists were convinced we would have AGI by now yet we don't. The many people in the community waiting for utopia are not about to get it, the many people in the community waiting for a ASAP cure for their problems are not going to get it, the many people in the community trying to escape the prison of depression are not going to get it. People are furious having waited years for AGI with the more desperate the person the more upset they are.
The warning signs were all there so many of Kurzweils predictions were false or late and whist Kurzweil is a great person who should be respected many treated him in a qanon esc fasion only pointing to when he is right or manipulating his predictions so they are right whist ignoring when he is wrong.
The community will need to regroup and I suspect will likely eventually coalesce around some new AGI date that will probably be more accurate as we are now closer to the date when AGI will happen whenever that is.
The AI explosion/Singularity cope
Human level AGI has been reached and then ... nothing. It is likely that creating AGI will not lead to Utopia in a few weeks like many believe on top of technology still taking time to develop politics culture and law takes along time to change. We might find the world now gets 7-20% better a year which would be described as a soft take off. Many people would be happy with this but... what are the people close to death going to do when they have just managed to survive untill AGI with a few years left in their life only to be told they need a miracle of surviving more than a decade to be able to live forever. Again people with major problems or people with conditions like depression will be upset by this. With even the biggest optimists like Kurzweil expecting a 16 year gap between human level AGI and the singularity it is odd that most of the community expected a hard take off. Also who even knows humanity will move in the direction of Utopia and not distopia.
The 2029 cope (I am going to be a victim of this despite knowing about it lmao)
Tick tok tick tock "happy new years!" It is now the year 2030 it is likely we don't have human level AGI and we are not close to human level AGI. 100,000 plus futurists were convinced we would have AGI by now yet we don't. The many people in the community waiting for utopia are not about to get it, the many people in the community waiting for a ASAP cure for their problems are not going to get it, the many people in the community trying to escape the prison of depression are not going to get it. People are furious having waited years for AGI with the more desperate the person the more upset they are.
The warning signs were all there so many of Kurzweils predictions were false or late and whist Kurzweil is a great person who should be respected many treated him in a qanon esc fasion only pointing to when he is right or manipulating his predictions so they are right whist ignoring when he is wrong.
The community will need to regroup and I suspect will likely eventually coalesce around some new AGI date that will probably be more accurate as we are now closer to the date when AGI will happen whenever that is.
The AI explosion/Singularity cope
Human level AGI has been reached and then ... nothing. It is likely that creating AGI will not lead to Utopia in a few weeks like many believe on top of technology still taking time to develop politics culture and law takes along time to change. We might find the world now gets 7-20% better a year which would be described as a soft take off. Many people would be happy with this but... what are the people close to death going to do when they have just managed to survive untill AGI with a few years left in their life only to be told they need a miracle of surviving more than a decade to be able to live forever. Again people with major problems or people with conditions like depression will be upset by this. With even the biggest optimists like Kurzweil expecting a 16 year gap between human level AGI and the singularity it is odd that most of the community expected a hard take off. Also who even knows humanity will move in the direction of Utopia and not distopia.