Future Timeline

After three months of war, there is no much point in arguing with each other, so it's time for a poll.. I don’t think some additional explanations are needed here, the questions are quite obvious. And, of course, feel free to describe how and when and why this outcome (you voted for) going to happen.

I think something else will happen: A cease-fire will be declared after Russia has taken control of large parts of eastern and southern Ukraine (it already has conquered most of it). Ukraine will not formally surrender the lost territory, but the fighting will die down nonetheless. Most Russians will believe that the price their country had to pay for the extra Ukrainian territory wasn't worth it.

funkervogt wrote: ↑Wed May 25, 2022 6:09 pm I think something else will happen: A cease-fire will be declared after Russia has taken control of large parts of eastern and southern Ukraine (it already has conquered most of it). Ukraine will not formally surrender the lost territory, but the fighting will die down nonetheless. Most Russians will believe that the price their country had to pay for the extra Ukrainian territory wasn't worth it.

That still falls into "Decisive Russia's victory" category. As for "Ukraine will not formally surrender the lost territory" - well, as modern history shows, this is almost impossible to force the defeated country to recognize the loss of territory. Even Serbia (otherwise fully pro-Western) did not recognized the loss of Kosovo.

Of course you can vote (or abstain) as you wish.

Putin's rule gets unexpectedly undermined by a group at Kremlin spooked by Russia's utter economic and diplomatic isolation by the world except for few countries. His replacement will recall Russian forces from Ukraine, allowing the Ukrainians to quickly reclaim Donbas and Crimea, and a peace treaty will be signed with Russia forced to pay reparations to Ukraine as the condition for lifting economic sanctions imposed on it. Ukraine, Sweden and Finland have joined NATO as a show of warning to Russia not to make the mistake again.

Certain Russian user wrote: ↑Wed May 25, 2022 6:18 pm

funkervogt wrote: ↑Wed May 25, 2022 6:09 pm I think something else will happen: A cease-fire will be declared after Russia has taken control of large parts of eastern and southern Ukraine (it already has conquered most of it). Ukraine will not formally surrender the lost territory, but the fighting will die down nonetheless. Most Russians will believe that the price their country had to pay for the extra Ukrainian territory wasn't worth it.

That still falls into "Decisive Russia's victory" category. As for "Ukraine will not formally surrender the lost territory" - well, as modern history shows, this is almost impossible to force the defeated country to recognize the loss of territory. Even Serbia (otherwise fully pro-Western) did not recognized the loss of Kosovo.

But the outcome I described is also a Pyrrhic victory for Russia. As I said, Russia wins, but at a cost that is so high that most Russians don't think the war was worth it.

None of the four voting options you created match what I think will happen, so I can't vote for any of them.

I voted Russian decisive victory, although I think the reality will be both decisive and pyrrhic. I do think that Russia's control will end up being greater than just Crimea and the Donbass - the Kherson and Zaporizhzhia oblasts (if/when the rest is taken) will likely stay under Russian control too, as well as the parts of Kharkiv oblast currently taken by Russia. I think there's also a strong possibility that Russia will eventually take the Mykolaiv and Odessa oblasts, but not for a while to come and not without even greater efforts than they've already made elsewhere.

That said, this war has already been a costly one, and even though Ukrainian casualty estimates for the Russian army are not exactly trustworthy, Russia has still lost many thousands of men. I'm also not as sure as I once was that there will be regime change in Kiev leading to disarmament and neutrality. It's possible, say if when Russia finishes taking the rest of the Donbass, it presents Kiev with a peace deal and they accept... however, I don't think they'll give up even to cut their own losses. Either they die fighting Russia until the end, or they die at the hands of their own people for treachery if they accept any sort of surrender. Without any good option, it seems the Kiev regime is currently choosing the former.

funkervogt wrote: ↑Wed May 25, 2022 6:23 pm

Certain Russian user wrote: ↑Wed May 25, 2022 6:18 pm

funkervogt wrote: ↑Wed May 25, 2022 6:09 pm I think something else will happen: A cease-fire will be declared after Russia has taken control of large parts of eastern and southern Ukraine (it already has conquered most of it). Ukraine will not formally surrender the lost territory, but the fighting will die down nonetheless. Most Russians will believe that the price their country had to pay for the extra Ukrainian territory wasn't worth it.

That still falls into "Decisive Russia's victory" category. As for "Ukraine will not formally surrender the lost territory" - well, as modern history shows, this is almost impossible to force the defeated country to recognize the loss of territory. Even Serbia (otherwise fully pro-Western) did not recognized the loss of Kosovo.

But the outcome I described is also a Pyrrhic victory for Russia. As I said, Russia wins, but at a cost that is so high that most Russians don't think the war was worth it.

None of the four voting options you created match what I think will happen, so I can't vote for any of them.

I disagree Russia even wins. Western nations are plowing increasingly sophisticated weapons into Ukraine at an intensifying pace while Russia is losing troops and equipment by the week, not to mention they're getting more demoralized. The conflict may drag on longer than we think but we can see the writing on the wall already.

Those who favor a Russia victory are ignoring the fact Ukrainians have 700,000 fighters aided by U.S. intelligence which is second to none. And then you add the small inconvenient tidbit they seem to ignore - Putin is facing a potential coup by a faction in the military and intelligence apparatus who oppose the war. The possibility becomes more real as Russians keep losing troops and equipment, a reality that is likely to continue in the weeks to come.

If I were an observer watching this conflict, I would lean on Ukraine coming up on top with Russia losing due to factors outside of military strength.

Those who favor a Russia victory are ignoring the fact Ukrainians have 700,000 fighters aided by U.S. intelligence which is second to none. And then you add the small inconvenient tidbit they seem to ignore - Putin is facing a potential coup by a faction in the military and intelligence apparatus who oppose the war. The possibility becomes more real as Russians keep losing troops and equipment, a reality that is likely to continue in the weeks to come.

The leaked intelligence reports about Putin being on the verge of overthrow or the verge of death have been consistently wrong. Don't trust them.

raklian wrote: ↑Wed May 25, 2022 6:28 pm I disagree Russia even wins... The conflict may drag on longer than we think but we can see the writing on the wall already.

I too see the writings, but we're clearly staring on two different walls. In April I was a bit frustrated by the lack of progress on the battlefields and was afraid of "Russia's Pyrrhic victory". In May, however, everything has changed...

Anyway, thank you, and everyone, for your posts. Like wine, these posts will become only better with time passed.

Where's the option for "Years perhaps decades of needless conflict that's not worth it no matter how much territory they may or may not obtain"? Because that. This could turn into Russia's own version of America's unending War on Terror/Afganistan/Iraq.