Future Timeline

June 8, 2022

What happened to the Russian Empire? It disintegrated at the end of an imperialist war. What happened to the Soviet Union? It disintegrated at the end of the Cold War. What will happen to the Russian Federation?

The answer is obvious, even if it saddens many. Russian patriotism is such that even those who do not support the Kremlin regime are not ready to recognize the imperial nature of the present Russian state. Even those who consider the present Russian government unjust, incompetent or simply dangerous believe in the survival of the Russian Federation with its present borders. Even people like me, who wish Ukraine a military victory and the Russian rulers an international trial, are not ready to admit that this will consequently lead to the end of the country itself.

Collapse has long been feared and predicted. It could have been slowed down by taking advantage of the favorable economic situation, by relying on a competent government, a skillful diplomatic game or simply by counting on luck. The ruling party had managed to choose a name that reflected its deep fear of disintegration as well as its lack of other values: “United Russia.”

On the international scene, Russia’s partners did not want this disintegration. Some were grateful to the federation for ending еру dangerous and costly Cold War. Others simply resented the changes, whatever they might be, fearing those more than war itself. The collapse that threatens the federation will not happen because of foreign peoples or governments, but against their will and in contradiction to their predictions. It is likely that it will also happen against the will of the Russian population: such problems are not usually solved by voting.

For a long time — two decades — nothing really significant happened in Russia. Everything changed with the second Russian-Ukrainian war, a war that should never have been started by supporters of the idea of a united Russia. For those concerned about the preservation of the federation, the moment of truth has come.

Xyls wrote: ↑Mon Sep 12, 2022 4:15 pm It looks it's heading that way right now, whether this will be a full break up or what will happen is really not knowable. Chechnya could again try to break away. Also Nagorono-Karabakh will almost certainly be fully reintegrated into Azerbaijan on an accelerated timeline as a result of this...

I also think it is possible the UK could break apart by 2030 as well over the Northern Ireland protocol if it isn't handled well.