Future Timeline

!!!

Prompts used:
Lots of traffic in futuristic city. An alien spaceship arrives to the futuristic city. The camera gets inside the alien spaceship. The camera moves forward until showing an astronaut in the blue room. The astronaut is typing in the keyboard. The camera moves away from the astronaut. The astronaut leaves the keyboard and walks to the left. The astronaut leaves the keyboard and walks away. The camera moves beyond the astronaut and looks at the screen. The screen behind the astronaut displays fish swimming in the sea. Crash zoom into the blue fish. We follow the blue fish as it swims in the dark ocean. The camera points up to the sky through the water. The ocean and the coastline of a futuristic city. Crash zoom towards a futuristic skyscraper. The camera zooms into one of the many windows. We are in an office room with empty desks. A lion runs on top of the office desks. The camera zooms into the lion's face, inside the office. Zoom out to the lion wearing a dark suit in an office room. The lion wearing looks at the camera and smiles. The camera zooms out slowly to the skyscraper exterior. Timelapse of sunset in the modern city


https://phenaki.video/#interactive

^ And all that was on an older (long ago I hope) version of the model.

WOW!!!

That's incredible. People keep speculating about an AI winter but it doesn't seem to have come yet.

erowind wrote: ↑Fri Sep 30, 2022 7:40 am WOW!!!

That's incredible. People keep speculating about an AI winter but it doesn't seem to have come yet.

The only reasons people are speculating about an AI winter is because:
• They're fatal contrarians who say it to get attention and attempt to bust hype, often completely and utterly misunderstanding why the first two AI winters happened in the first place in a vain attempt to cast cold water on the third boom and feel satisfaction in predicting a third. The boom and bust cycle is what's important, not the context of WHY there were booms and busts.

• They despise the success of deep learning and feel alternative or GOFAI methods are superior. No matter how promising current advancements are, "deep learning is a cold, dead end."


Basically, because it seems like we're still far from AGI (we're really not), these articles love claiming that AI Winter is Coming. In other words, AI methods may literally be able to synthesize all forms of media, provide real-world utility, maximize business efficiency, pilot vehicles of all kinds, hold long-form conversations, and much more, but because it hasn't been able to cross this one vague, arbitrary line of science fiction memes, the entire field is about to collapse down to 1974 levels.

It reeks of VR is Dying anti-hype.

The cold fact is that what separates the AI winters from what we're seeing now is capability. Even if funding collapsed tomorrow, the AI models still work. They can still do all of what I mentioned. GPT-3 still works. Stable Diffusion still works. Autopilot still works. Google Brain still works.

Whereas in 1973 and 1988, no matter how well funded AI was, it simply couldn't do ANY of what I mentioned. Maybe basic tasks in the late 80s, but that's it. Why fund it to the order of tens of billions of dollars if you're not going to see any benefit or profit? You're almost literally burning money for nothing.

It flummoxes me that this basic objective truth is lost on some people, but counterintuitively, it's not surprising.

God, it looks so fucking on point to an anime screenshot. Combine this with the recent text to video AIs, and just my god. My god.

The sad thing is, this wasn't even possibly six months ago. DALL-E 2 just was NOT capable of generating anime. Not because it didn't have the capability, but because OpenAI didn't train it on anime.

Before I knew what exponential growth was, my "predictions" for synthetic media went something like this:


2025: Grainy paintings of different colors by AI in experiments

2030: Somewhat believable AI generated art and photos

2040: Short 2-3 second AI generated movies

2050: 10-15 minute AI generated short films with almost perfect quality but no sound

2100: 2 hour long AI generated movies with fully realistic quality and sound

Boy was I pessimistic.

At last.