I’ve followed this war in late 2020 and its after effects in early 2021 especially on Armenia. Yet the average American does not know this happened thanks to media coverage focused on internal American politics and bickering or if externally, its always about China or some other place thats a major threat to America.
The Nagorno-Karabakh War showed what warfare might look like in the future or at least glimpses of it. Azerbaijan has a technological edge compared to Armenia, their arms are supplied by Turkey (a regional power and close ally to it), Israel and a few other western countries, iirc, which is how they were able to take back a majority of territory held by Artsakh (Nagorno-Karabakh). There may be a greater role in drones in combat as well in a hypothetical 2022 Russo-Ukrainian War, which was one of Azerbaijan’s points of winning the war.
But Ukraine isn’t like Armenia or at least how I view it. They are between Europe and Russia essentially, unlike Armenia where they are surrounded by two major belligerents (Turkey and Azerbaijan) that refuse to cooperate with them for reasons always associated with nationalism. Its how Armenia lost the war, essentially their only ally (if at all) was Russia and even then, Russia didn’t really contribute too much into their support. Ukraine has the edge of being a strategic point for the West compared to Armenia, so the West would naturally try to support them to push their goals and maybe would back them in such a fight through supplying arms. If its like a one-on-one war, then Ukraine is certainly going to be defeated by Russia - but much like the Armenians in Nagorno-Karabakh, their spirits won’t be broken so easily thanks to years of being on alert essentially (since 2014), so I can see them fighting off longer especially if they try to take over western Ukraine.
It might seem a bit off topic (and if so, you could delete the post), but I wanted to share my own opinion between these comparisons, but they might seem a little nuanced and oversimplified.
Also another note, I would wish that everyone would not trust bad media like The Grayzone alongside some lefty apologists to Russia trying to justify Russia’s imperialist course on Ukraine (heck, even some of the worst American conservative pundits are supporting Russia with their likeminded views). Just because America has done imperialism on Iraq or Afghanistan, doesn’t mean Russia’s is justifiable. It is not an “anti-imperialist” power and its doing the same thing America did to both countries but with Ukraine and previously, Georgia. I believe Ukraine has the right to having their own nation on the principle of self-defence and their wish for independence, although ultimately, history (a subjective thing) and nationalism seems to always muddle everything around me.
I am also hoping that peace would prevail as well, it would be a big lose for Russia and Europe if war breaks out. Russia’s economy cripples while Europe loses access to well, gas (looking at you Germany). I think the idea of autonomy could work for the Donbas region through a referendum, but then again, Crimea, while being autonomous decided to annex itself to Russia back in 2014 so they could just do the same which kinda makes it pointless imo. Eh, I’m not sure. I ramble too much and I got to put it here somehow.