Ukraine War Watch Thread

[Xyls]

This is not good from Chernobyl...

[Yuli Ban]

I was initially worried sick (literally sick) that this was going to end in WWIII and mushroom clouds the world over. So much so that I was twitches away from posting a status update saying "It's going to be a cold year."

While there's still a nonzero chance, it seems no one has responded to Russia's goading despite multiple threats and even a few attacks (on Turkish, Moldovan, and Japanese ships). Not to mention there's been no mobilizations near me at the military base I live near.
Here in the USA, there's no talk at all of going to war. No troop movements, no aircraft scrambling, no civilian training, nothing. Not even any leaks of it from military units saying that they're planning to. Just aid packages and sanctions. I can't say for what other NATO countries will do (mostly the UK, who are run by an unpredictable muppet), but the USA is signed out of the conflict. We're just watching in horror.

Rather it seems Putin bit off more than he could chew. He must have assumed the same thing I did, that this was going to be a repeat of the Nagorno-Karabakh War where one side dominates the other into a ceasefire. So much so that he didn't even commit most of his force to the invasion.

Neither of us could have foreseen just how tenacious the Ukrainians were going to be.

All this other stuff? The sanctions, the SWIFT stuff? Expected. Everyone knew that was going to come. I'd be shocked if Putin was shocked. But it was surely going to be worth it if Ukraine was absorbed into Russia, or at least split in two. And I'm not saying Russia's going to fail that objective— like I said, they haven't even committed more than a third of their forces to this operation. There was a severe miscalculation in that they thought Ukraine was going to roll over and surrender as soon as the missiles started hitting, so there was no need for an organized blitzkrieg. This was the wrong move. However, Russia still has all the power in terms of actual military matters.

It's whether they can tolerate any more losses that will determine their next course of action.

Russia really wants Ukraine. I mean REALLY wants it. It matters to the national Russian psyche. So I don't think they'll tolerate outright defeat. The thing is, I don't think Russia's going to be defeated. No matter how bad it might look for them right now, or how many embarrassing mishaps seem to happen, this war's only gone on for about 36 hours. If they really wanted, they could absolutely crush Ukraine. But it would mean taking heavy losses and dealing with a protracted insurgency.

Nuclear war could certainly still happen through a series of awful miscalculations and death wishes. But now I'm starting to feel that the overwhelming anxiety and focus on nuclear holocaust is distracting us from other potential outcomes. Many of them are still disastrous, but not necessarily civilization-ending, at least not initially. For example, let's say that Russia completely fails to accomplish their goal of dividing Ukraine and absorbing part of it. This would almost certainly incite revolution within the country, or at least a coup. Who's to say someone far less forgiving and rational than Putin wouldn't come to power. Or maybe the Communist Party would return and formally unite with China, which honestly might be the least worst outcome.

[Yuli Ban]

[Xyls]

It seems the main battle tonight is in Vasylkiv... which is to the southwest of Kyiv... sounds like Ukraine is putting up a major fight here like they did at Hostomel... this is going to be very hard for Russia to hold if they are truly trying to capture this with paratrooper divisions as that tactic was not effective at Hostomel and they didn't manage to take control until they sent in their helicopters and mechanized forces which it is unclear how quickly they can do here...



Also reports of what may be the largest loss of life in the war yet...

[caltrek]

Ukraine’s Nuclear Agency Reports Increased Level of Radiation at Chernobyl
by Dr Alfredo Carpineti
February 25, 2022

https://www.iflscience.com/editors-blog ... y-reports/

(IFL Science) The abandoned city of Pripyat and the Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant registered higher than expected levels of radiation following the Russian attack of February 24. This was reported by Ukraine's nuclear agency and interior ministry, according to Reuters,* and is due to the presence of a significant military contingency lifting radioactive dust from the soil into the air. The level of radioactivity was not revealed.

"Radiation starts to increase. It is not critical for Kyiv for the time being, but we are monitoring," the interior ministry said.

Experts believe that the risk of accidental release of radioactive material is very low, but a deliberate release can't be excluded. It is unclear why the Russian government targeted the area.

The attack in the so-called Exclusion Zone came on the first day of Russia's invasion of Ukraine. The area is now under Russian control but the Ukraine Nuclear agency has confirmed to the International Atomic Energy Agency that there has been no destruction and no casualties at the industrial site.

*https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/uk ... 022-02-25/

[Yuli Ban]

[Yuli Ban]

Jeez, we're so focused on the nuclear mushroom clouds that we were completely forgetting ANOTHER possible angle of "nuclear" war...
Chernobyl isn't the biggest nuclear risk. Ukraine's active nuclear power plants are

While much attention has been paid to Chernobyl this week as Russia's invasion of Ukraine continues, there is growing concern about the four active nuclear power plants that supply half of the nation's power.

Those four power plants, located near towns and cities in western and southern Ukraine, contain 15 operating nuclear reactors. The concern is that a nuclear disaster could occur if during the conflict they were accidentally damaged, left unmaintained or cut off from the power grid needed to cool the reactors.

Ukraine reported that its country's nuclear power reactors are still operating "safely and securely," the International Atomic Energy Agency said Friday morning.

But the organization, which is dedicated to the peaceful use of nuclear energy, said it remained deeply concerned.

IAEA Director General Rafael Mariano Grossi reiterated his "appeal for maximum restraint to avoid any action that could jeopardize plant safety," the group said.

[Yuli Ban]

[Yuli Ban]

[Yuli Ban]

[weatheriscool]

NATO Deploys Response Forces; Warns Russia 'We Will Defend Every Inch' of Alliance
Source: Defense One

NATO leaders agreed on Friday to immediately deploy elements of the alliance’s emergency military forces, adding troops and firepower to bolster defenses along its Eastern front.

The unprecedented deployment is meant to deter Russia—whose military is currently invading Ukraine—from attacking NATO members and to prepare alliance forces to respond quickly should an attack occur.

“We are deploying elements of the NATO Response Force on land, at sea, and in the air,” said NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, at alliance headquarters in Brussels, immediately following the summit. NATO leaders had agreed to activate the force on Thursday.

Read more: https://www.defenseone.com/threats/2022 ... ce/362459/

[weatheriscool]

Ukraine Claims It Has Killed Nearly 3,000 Russian Troops
By Jack Phillips
February 25, 2022 Updated: February 25, 2022

About 2,800 Russian soldiers have been killed in the first 36 hours of Russia’s invasion, Ukraine’s Ministry of Defense claimed Friday.

Deputy Defence Minister Hanna Malyar said Friday that Russian troops also lost some 500 armored vehicles, 10 aircraft, and seven helicopters.

https://www.theepochtimes.com/ukraine-c ... 00426.html

[Yuli Ban]

It seems even political opinion in Russia is turning against the war.

Not noteworthy on its own, except for the fact that the war's literally just 48 hours old. It tells me that the military operation was not at all planned by most of Russia's upper echelons, at least not this soon. Putin must have figured the same thing I thought a few weeks back: why not launch a total surprise attack when everyone's certain that one isn't coming? Likewise I also thought that Ukraine would've easily folded by now (and technically, Russian troops are in Kyiv so it's not like they were completely BTFO'd).

[Yuli Ban]

[Yuli Ban]

[Xyls]

Quite frankly, I don't see how Russia is going to win this war and the longer this goes on the more convinced I am that Russia is going to lose and potentially suffer a coup in the process... this is not great... as it could potentially destabilize Russia enough that it instead plunges into civil war. And having a nuclear armed state in civil war is a nightmare for global security...

Russia has lots of technology, but most of their technology is not matched for the needs or urban warfare unless they go into siege mode (surround the cities and starve them out) this however is a long process, they don't have lots of troops and would need to siege out multiple cities... including Kiev which they are having major trouble holding/capturing critical infrastructure surrounding it... all this while Ukraine's morale grows and the insurgency strengthens which means they won't be able to to enter and hold unless they go on mass bombing campaigns of the cities first. This will not be tolerated by public opinion in Russia. Russia strongly needs to consider what it needs to focus on as they are overextending themselves which will hurt them even more.

Russia is running out of time to take Kyiv... if they fail to take it this weekend, then they likely won't as the war destabilizes the internal political situation of Russia. I'm not sure at that point whether they would call off the invasion entirely or switch from trying to take Kyiv to trying to consolidate their actually needed objectives which is a water source to Crimea and taking territory for the LPR and DPR... Only the southern campaign out of Crimea seems to really be going well at the moment for Russia... and they do have massive naval dominance here...

[andmar74]

Quite frankly, I don't see how Russia is going to win this war and the longer this goes on the more convinced I am that Russia is going to lose and potentially suffer a coup in the process... this is not great... as it could potentially destabilize Russia enough that it instead plunges into civil war. And having a nuclear armed state in civil war is a nightmare for global security...

It could actually be best for the world that Ukraine collapses fast..War is horrible, Putin you sick bastard.

[Xyls]

Russia has taken control of their first city with the fall of Melitopol... this is part of the Kherson offensive out of Crimea which appears to be the only one actually going well for Russia at the moment. (This city only has 150,000ish people though). I expect Mariupol will likely get besieged on both sides soon and likely be the next city to fall as Russia works to make a land bridge from the separatist Republics to Crimea. I then expect they will try to take Kherson to try to solidy gains and water access to the Dnieper from Crimea...

They better hope this is worthwhile as I think the Kyiv Offensive is going to collapse which will mean resources will likely be redirected towards the east to relieve Kharkiv and Sumy, where the Russians have failed to take both of those cities (Sumy is surrounded though but they are suffering major losses here.)

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/e ... -1.4813143

[wjfox]

[wjfox]

Russia no longer needs diplomatic ties with West - ex-President Medvedev

February 26, 2022 10:25 AM GMT
Last Updated 9 min ago

MOSCOW, Feb 26 (Reuters) - Russia doesn't really need diplomatic ties with the West after it imposed sanctions on Moscow over what he called Russia's military operation in Ukraine, former president and top security official Dmitry Medvedev said on Saturday.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ru ... 022-02-26/