Ukraine War Watch Thread

weatheriscool
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Re: Ukraine War Watch Thread

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Ukraine jets hit Russian column; Russia has used thermobarics, Ukraine military says
Source: Military Times

Ukraine armed forces have been striking that long line of Russian troops heading to Kyiv while the Russians have used thermobaric weapons against Ukrainian cities, the head of Ukraine’s defense intelligence agency tells Military Times.

“We are striking the enemy’s columns,” Brig. Gen. Kyrylo Budanov told Military Times in an exclusive interview Wednesday morning. “We burn many columns of the enemy.”

The strikes, he said, are being conducted by Ukraine Su-24 and Su-25 fighter jets, artillery and missile barrages.

“My intelligence officers and agents are directing and calling the strikes,” he said.

Marine Lt. Col. Anton Semelroth, a Pentagon spokesman said Wednesday morning he “would not speak to intel assessments.”
Read more: https://www.militarytimes.com/flashpoin ... tary-says/
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R8Z
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Re: Ukraine War Watch Thread

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raklian wrote: Wed Mar 02, 2022 5:55 pm
wjfox wrote: Wed Mar 02, 2022 5:51 pm
That's probably how the US intelligence found out Russia was going to invade Ukraine even though the Russian officials called those claims ridiculous.
The problem with them and media lying all the time is that when they finally tell the truth no-one except their blind followers believe them.
And, as always, bye bye.
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Re: Ukraine War Watch Thread

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Russia-Ukraine live updates: 3rd world war would be nuclear, Lavrov warns

https://abcnews.go.com/International/li ... d=83184729

Lavrov stfu. Seriously.
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Xyls
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So are the Russians telling civilians to leave just so they can bomb them all at once?

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Re: Ukraine War Watch Thread

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wjfox wrote: Wed Mar 02, 2022 6:08 pm
Also another source: https://www.npr.org/2022/03/02/10839685 ... deaths-war

Well, I do have a very strong bullshit detector:
Maximus wrote: Wed Mar 02, 2022 12:41 am ...
Can't afford having Russians see the Russian lives their invasion is costing. As a side note, do I believe Ukraine's casualty figures? No. I think in all likeliness both sides have suffered a few hundred casualties, so maybe 1/10th of the given 5710 Russian casualties is accurate.
But in all seriousness, if the Russian Ministry of Propaganda is willing to admit that many, I am gonna have to revise my estimate to 2-3x that amount.
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Re: Ukraine War Watch Thread

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I hope this situation will, after some time, make Russia less evil and less corrupt, after citizens see all the negative consequences of their leaders actions and learn the truth from the WWW. Russia's GDP is going down, inflation is going up, Russian casualties are going up and Russia's position in the World is worsening. Most countries are turning away from fossil fuels towards renewables and better, modular nuclear reactors and fusion power in the future. Russia is becoming like North Korea. I think that decentralized communication technologies should enable to topple evil, corrupt, dictatorial leaders. It should work that way. Anonymous joined the fight against Russia by hacking their websites and TV channels. They offer Bitcoins for each captured Russian tank or armored vehicle. I hope this is a start of Russia's becoming a true democracy, not a fake one.
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Re: Ukraine War Watch Thread

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"Because "great" powers behave this way...

If you have to kill innocent people for no apparent reason other than some delusional platitudes, then it's time to reevaluate your priorities. Russia will never be a great power again, certainly never like this. Russia has just become a modern-day disgrace of a country.
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Re: Ukraine War Watch Thread

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Tadasuke wrote: Wed Mar 02, 2022 9:30 pm I hope this situation will, after some time, make Russia less evil and less corrupt, after citizens see all the negative consequences of their leaders actions and learn the truth from the WWW. Russia's GDP is going down, inflation is going up, Russian casualties are going up and Russia's position in the World is worsening. Most countries are turning away from fossil fuels towards renewables and better, modular nuclear reactors and fusion power in the future. Russia is becoming like North Korea. I think that decentralized communication technologies should enable to topple evil, corrupt, dictatorial leaders. It should work that way. Anonymous joined the fight against Russia by hacking their websites and TV channels. They offer Bitcoins for each captured Russian tank or armored vehicle. I hope this is a start of Russia's becoming a true democracy, not a fake one.
Tadasuke wrote: Wed Mar 02, 2022 9:30 pm I hope this situation will, after some time, make Russia less evil and less corrupt, after citizens see all the negative consequences of their leaders actions and learn the truth from the WWW. Russia's GDP is going down, inflation is going up, Russian casualties are going up and Russia's position in the World is worsening. Most countries are turning away from fossil fuels towards renewables and better, modular nuclear reactors and fusion power in the future. Russia is becoming like North Korea. I think that decentralized communication technologies should enable to topple evil, corrupt, dictatorial leaders. It should work that way. Anonymous joined the fight against Russia by hacking their websites and TV channels. They offer Bitcoins for each captured Russian tank or armored vehicle. I hope this is a start of Russia's becoming a true democracy, not a fake one.
Well we should hope the majority of Russians are not like our fine ultranationalist Russian here,(aka Certain Russian User). No doubt there are many like him, I would say they are the majority right now. Can that be changed?

We have blown up their economy. The largest Russian bank is down ~-90% on Western markets. I mean, that's an insane crash, worse than Great Depression levels. The ruble is worthless, and the West is stopping Russia's central bank from trying to shore it up. Russians are used to suffering economic hardship, many will quote you the times they lived through in the 90s, but that won't make the return of such times any more pleasant. Maybe enough will be swayed to see the reality of the situation, which is that Putin's unprovoked aggression brought this upon them.

It also helps that Russia has been thoroughly condemned by the entire world through the UN, except for those handful of pariah states which Russia is well on its way to joining. I doubt many Russians want to join the glorious league of nations such as North Korea, Syria, and Eritrea. And now even the lying Russian government cannot hide the pile of Russian soldiers who needlessly died for Putin's fantasy.

But I know the "traditional" Russian mentality in and out, such as that displayed by Putin and our resident ultranationalist. It is one of paranoia, jealousy, and a consuming lust for a return to a time when Russia was "respected" and "feared". They hate that no country wants to be associated with them. It's no secret why every European country that had the chance has fled to the EU and/or NATO. It's stuff like this. It is the abuser who wonders why their lover wants to leave. A murderer trying to claim victimhood as he hacks off his victim's head. Think of them as QAnon. The more they are wrong, the more evidence there is to the contrary, the deeper they dig into their fantasy. No more bread in the shops? Not Putin's fault. The West. Can't travel anywhere? Damn the evil Americans! They sit awake at night because Estonians, Poles, Lithuanians, and Ukrainians want nothing to do with them. They cannot accept setting aside this fantasy of a return to Soviet times, and just joining the European community. The entire world would love nothing more than to have a peaceful Russia join us.

I realize there are "new" Russians as well, as we can see from the protests across Russia against this war, so there is hope. But there 144 million Russians, and only a few thousand on the street. I am not very optimistic in this regard. I think more likely, Russia will become a pariah state like North Korea, dependent for its economic survival on China. Maybe when Putin dies of old age there will be a change, but even then, the old Russian mentality I outlined above will still be there.
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Re: Ukraine War Watch Thread

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**BREAKING**
Russia has potentially shot down 2 Romanian aircraft over the Black Sea. In addition, 4 Russian jets violated Swedish airspace. Diplomats in Bulgaria were dispelled over spying allegations.
These events are huge. Understand though…..the 4 Armenian aircraft shot down, if proved, is direct military action on a NATO country. This would draw an Article 5, meaning all 30 NATO nations would be at war with Russia. This is the closest the world has been to WW3 since the end of WW2 in 1945

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Re: Ukraine War Watch Thread

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Cyber_Rebel wrote: Wed Mar 02, 2022 9:54 pm

^ A textbook example of whataboutism, which the Russians are so famous for.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Whataboutism
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Re: Ukraine War Watch Thread

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weatheriscool wrote: Wed Mar 02, 2022 10:24 pm **BREAKING**
Russia has potentially shot down 2 Romanian aircraft over the Black Sea. In addition, 4 Russian jets violated Swedish airspace. Diplomats in Bulgaria were dispelled over spying allegations.
These events are huge. Understand though…..the 4 Armenian aircraft shot down, if proved, is direct military action on a NATO country. This would draw an Article 5, meaning all 30 NATO nations would be at war with Russia. This is the closest the world has been to WW3 since the end of WW2 in 1945

Great. Just the news I wanted to read as I'm going to bed. :( I don't think I'll sleep well tonight.
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joe00uk
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Re: Ukraine War Watch Thread

Post by joe00uk »

wjfox wrote: Wed Mar 02, 2022 10:46 pm
weatheriscool wrote: Wed Mar 02, 2022 10:24 pm **BREAKING**
Russia has potentially shot down 2 Romanian aircraft over the Black Sea. In addition, 4 Russian jets violated Swedish airspace. Diplomats in Bulgaria were dispelled over spying allegations.
These events are huge. Understand though…..the 4 Armenian aircraft shot down, if proved, is direct military action on a NATO country. This would draw an Article 5, meaning all 30 NATO nations would be at war with Russia. This is the closest the world has been to WW3 since the end of WW2 in 1945

Great. Just the news I wanted to read as I'm going to bed. :( I don't think I'll sleep well tonight.
For what it's worth, the Romanians themselves are putting this down to bad weather in the area their jets were flying in.
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Re: Ukraine War Watch Thread

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Also, I think all this excitement over Russia becoming a pariah state like North Korea is overblown. UN votes aren't really that significant. Even a lot of the countries who voted to condemn the invasion aren't going to join in with Western sanctions. Brazil, Mexico and Turkey have all already said that they won't be doing so, for instance. India isn't going to do so either, and they even abstained in the UN vote along with China which certainly won't be turning its back on Russia. Being cut off from North America and Europe really isn't the death sentence it would have been 20 or 30 years ago. Russia was in the process of detaching itself from the West for years in any case. I think that as much as these sanctions are shocking the Russian economy, they won't destroy it. They'll probably cause a lot of damage in the West as well once Russia retaliates - especially in mainland Europe which is so dependent on Russian gas. I wouldn't be surprised to see a lot of these sanctions quietly being rescinded after the bullets stop flying and the economic damage to the West becomes clear. Europe and North America just don't have the ability to coerce the rest of the world into falling in line anymore. This war may even accelerate that decline.
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Re: Ukraine War Watch Thread

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For what it's worth, the Romanians themselves are putting this down to bad weather in the area their jets were flying in.
It sure sounds like it from this article:

Romanian Rescue Helicopter Crashes During Search for Missing MiG-21 Fighter Jet

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/4 ... ighter-jet
(The Drive) Details are still coming in, but a Romanian Air Force IAR-330 Puma helicopter has crashed, killing all five individuals on board, after heading out on a mission to try to find one of the service's MiG-21 Lancers. The fate of that fighter jet remains unclear after it went missing while flying over the Black Sea.

The Romanian Ministry of Defense said the IAR-330 came down near Gura Dobrogei, approximately 11 kilometers (~7 miles) from Mihail Kogălniceanu Air Base where it had taken off. An official statement said that contact with the helicopter was lost after the pilot had reported bad weather and had been told to return to base. A second IAR-330 that was expected to also head out to look for the MiG-21 was subsequently grounded.

That same statement said that there is still no information on what happened to the MiG-21.

Contact was lost with the Lancer shortly after it took off from Mihail Kogălniceanu Air Base, which is situated near Constanța on Romania's Black Sea coast, on a routine patrol mission earlier this evening. In addition to the IAR-330, Romania's Inspectorate for Emergency Situations, or ISU, had dispatched teams based in Constanța to assist on the ground with the search for the missing jet, according to the Ministry of National Defense.

While we don't know the circumstances behind either of these incidents yet, there is no indication at this time that foul play or hostile action of any kind was a factor in the crash of the IAR-330 or the MiG-21 going missing. There are signs that bad weather might have played a role in incidents.
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Re: Ukraine War Watch Thread

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caltrek wrote: Wed Mar 02, 2022 11:04 pm
For what it's worth, the Romanians themselves are putting this down to bad weather in the area their jets were flying in.
...
While we don't know the circumstances behind either of these incidents yet, there is no indication at this time that foul play or hostile action of any kind was a factor in the crash of the IAR-330 or the MiG-21 going missing. There are signs that bad weather might have played a role in incidents.
Indeed, it appears it was bad weather. For all the efforts they've made to modernize their air force and acquire American jets, they are unfortunately still flying some of these Soviet rustbuckets. Couldn't ask for worse timing though.
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Re: Ukraine War Watch Thread

Post by raklian »

Maximus wrote: Wed Mar 02, 2022 11:18 pm
caltrek wrote: Wed Mar 02, 2022 11:04 pm
For what it's worth, the Romanians themselves are putting this down to bad weather in the area their jets were flying in.
...
While we don't know the circumstances behind either of these incidents yet, there is no indication at this time that foul play or hostile action of any kind was a factor in the crash of the IAR-330 or the MiG-21 going missing. There are signs that bad weather might have played a role in incidents.
Indeed, it appears it was bad weather. For all the efforts they've made to modernize their air force and acquire American jets, they are unfortunately still flying some of these Soviet rustbuckets. Couldn't ask for worse timing though.
Still doesn't change the fact Will is probably still tossing and turning about in his bed. Come morning after reading this, he'd be like, WTF did I waste all night worrying? 8-)
To know is essentially the same as not knowing. The only thing that occurs is the rearrangement of atoms in your brain.
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Re: Ukraine War Watch Thread

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Honest question to the European members of this forum: do you have a nuclear shelter ready (your own or nearby) in case an emergency comes to play? Some houses I went to in Germany had their own underground bunkers in basements "just in case" but I felt that it was mostly old houses and newer ones didn't even have basements.
And, as always, bye bye.
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Re: Ukraine War Watch Thread

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Update on Kherson:

Russia Captures its First Major Ukrainian City After Nearly a Week of Failure to Break Ukrainian Resistance
by Jake Epstein , Sonam Sheth , and Azmi Haroun
March 2, 2022

https://www.businessinsider.com/russia- ... ine-2022-3

Introduction:
(Business Insider) Kherson, a city in southern Ukraine along the Black Sea, has become the first major city to fall to Russian forces since they invaded on February 24.

The city of nearly 300,000 residents was captured by the Russians after nearly a week of failure to break Ukrainian resistance, The New York Times reported.

Mayor Igor Kolykhaev met on Wednesday with a Russian commander who will introduce a military administration, according to the report.

"There is no Ukrainian Army here," he told the paper. "The city is surrounded."

Ukrainian forces retreated to nearby Mykolaiv, according to the report
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Re: Ukraine War Watch Thread

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Two Russian Oligarchs Call for an End to Putin's War
by Charles Riley
March 1, 2022

https://www.cnn.com/2022/02/28/business ... index.html

Introduction:
London (CNN Business)Russian billionaires Mikhail Fridman and Oleg Deripaska have broken ranks with the Kremlin and called for an end to Russia's war in Ukraine.

Fridman, who was born in western Ukraine, wrote in a letter to staff that he wanted the "bloodshed to end."

"My parents are Ukrainian citizens and live in Lviv, my favorite city. But I have also spent much of my life as a citizen of Russia, building and growing businesses. I am deeply attached to Ukrainian and Russian peoples and see the current conflict as a tragedy for them both," wrote Fridman.

"This crisis will cost lives and damage two nations who have been brothers for hundreds of years. While a solution seems frighteningly far off, I can only join those whose fervent desire is for the bloodshed to end," he added in the letter, which was provided by his office. The Financial Times was first to report the letter.
Further Extract:
"Peace is very important! Negotiations need to start as soon as possible!" Deripaska said Sunday in a post on Telegram.
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