Ukraine War Watch Thread

[wjfox]

Vinnytsia International Airport has been completely destroyed by Russian missiles:

https://www.ndtv.com/world-news/ukraine ... ke-2806899

[weatheriscool]

Russian forces fire on evacuees, leaving 3 people dead outside Kyiv.
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/06/worl ... death.html

No paywall
https://archive.ph/HDGgs

IRPIN, Ukraine — A Russian force advancing on Kyiv fired mortar shells on Sunday at a battered bridge used by evacuees fleeing the fighting, sending panicked civilians running, kicking up a cloud of dust and leaving three members of a family dead on the pavement.

Crowds of hundreds have clustered around the damaged bridge over the Irpin River since Saturday. Ukrainian forces had blown up the bridge earlier to slow the Russian advance. Only a dozen or so Ukrainian soldiers were in the immediate area of the bridge on Sunday, not fighting but helping carry civilians’ luggage and children.

To cross a hundred yards or so of exposed street on the side of the bridge closer to Kyiv, people seeking to flee to the capital formed small groups and made a run for it together. Soldiers ran out, picked up children or luggage, and ran for cover behind a cinder block wall.

The mortar shells fell first 100 or so yards from the bridge, then shifted in a series of thunderous blasts into a section of street where people were fleeing.

As the mortars got closer to the stream of civilians, people ran, pulling children, trying to find a safe spot. But there was nothing to hide behind. A shell landed in the street, sending up a cloud of concrete dust and leaving one family — a mother, a father, a teenage son and a daughter who appeared about 8 years old — sprawled on the ground.

[Certain Russian user]

It's a nice theory. Great for Ukrainian morale. But it's not too believable when you take into account the fact that Russian forces keep advancing in Ukraine and aren't anywhere close to being driven back to the border by Ukrainian forces. You can argue that maybe it's not going as smoothly as hoped for the Russians, or that their progress is slower and more costly than they planned for, but they're still making that progress and they still have the upper hand. Ukrainian victory remains a highly unlikely scenario, however much one might be rooting for them.

Sorry, I didn't read that wall of text you quoted, but as for "not going as smoothly as hoped" part, the main reason is obvious. Ukrainian forces mostly switched to typical ISIS tactics: hiding inside densely populated areas, setting their firing points in schools and hospitals and the like, prevent civilians (their human shield) from leaving via "green corridors" given by Russian army, and so on and so forth. In most places (with some interesting exceptions like their attempts to set up a classical "frontline" in some areas of southern Ukraine) this is not a classical interstate war anymore but rather a huge scale counter-terrorist operation. And since WE care about civilians and THEY do not, it will take time.

Anyway, despite some rare successes (multiplied by 100 in their propaganda efforts you guys so happily consume in this very thread) strategically it's all over.

PS and yes, to those expected the "antiwar protests" and "inevitable Russian collapse": the life around me goes as usual. On contrary, what happened within these days was rather routinization of conflict and uniting around the banner (and this process is only beginning). If anyone thought that sanctions and hysterical "cancelling" of everything Russian in the West may lead to some other result - he doesn't know a damn thing about our people.

[andmar74]

I heard a Danish military analyst today in the radio. At the beginning of the assault on Ukraine, the experts were sure Ukraine would loose fairly quickly. Now, this analyst is not convinced Russia will win. He mentioned wheels falling off of Russian vehicles and tanks getting stuck in the mud. Also they have huge logistics problems. It also seems like the Russians can't even coordinate large airstrikes, maybe anti-air missiles are a huge threat.
It would be sweet if the Russians were forced out and Putin suddenly got ill and disappeared.

[weatheriscool]

[Xyls]

[joe00uk]

Ukrainian forces mostly switched to typical ISIS tactics: hiding inside densely populated areas, setting their firing points in schools and hospitals and the like, prevent civilians (their human shield) from leaving via "green corridors" given by Russian army, and so on and so forth. In most places (with some interesting exceptions like their attempts to set up a classical "frontline" in some areas of southern Ukraine) this is not a classical interstate war anymore but rather a huge scale counter-terrorist operation.

Yes, from what I've seen myself, a lot of that does appear to be true. Certainly, the Azov Battalion is acting like Ukraine's local ISIS what with preventing civilian evacuations on top of executions and torture (but of course, the extent of all this will probably remain unknown for a long time). But still, Russian forces are gradually encircling a number of cities now and Mariupol is only the first to fall completely under siege. Kiev and Kharkiv will likely join in due course. What remains to be seen is how long the Russians will wait for them to surrender once that happens, and how stubborn the resistance really is once supplies run out. Perhaps if they're resilient enough, Russian forces might lose patience and go in for the kill. We will see. If the rest of the Ukrainian Army starts copying the Azov Battalion's tactics, it's just possible that they'll alienate enough of the Ukrainian population that they'll unintentionally create an ample reservoir of enemy collaborators.

As for sanctions, yes, I think they're complete idiocy. To think they'll "stop Putin's war machine" is ridiculous. It's the same logic that drove sanctions on Cuba and North Korea thinking they would lead to regime change. They did no such thing. The result is that the reorientation of the Russian economy away from the West and towards China will only pick up speed. Already Sberbank is launching an initiative with China's UnionPay in response to Visa and Mastercard suspending their services in Russia. The Russian economy is going through a shock, but like 1998, it will likely be limited in duration and this time it will only last as long as it takes to replace Western investments and assets with Chinese alternatives. The West is in the weaker position. It thinks it's isolating Russia from the world, but really it's isolating itself from Russia, which is an incredibly costly mistake.

[wjfox]

WE care about civilians

Clearly.

[Certain Russian user]

Perhaps if they're resilient enough, Russian forces might lose patience and go in for the kill. We will see.

Yes, true, there is some discontent and pressure in that direction in both army and civil society: "if we're really at war, let's already fight for real". Chechen troops fighting in Ukraine are clearly unhappy with their current role and asking to unleash them. If Ukrainian regime will not surrender anytime soon, our tactics may indeed become more "american", so to say. And what's really going on inside Ukrainian regime, remains unclear. Yesterday, for unclear reason, they killed Denis Kireev, the member of their own negotiating group. One of their mayors who tried to make a deal with our advancing troops and save his town from urban combat, was then killed as well. So, I'll better abstain from any guesses HOW and WHEN will Ukraine surrender.

[joe00uk]

And what's really going on inside Ukrainian regime, remains unclear. Yesterday, for unclear reason, they killed Denis Kireev, the member of their own negotiating group. One of their mayors who tried to make a deal with our advancing troops and save his town from urban combat, was then killed as well. So, I'll better abstain from any guesses HOW and WHEN will Ukraine surrender.

At this point, it's in Kiev's best interest to purge the radicals like those who murdered Kireev in some sort of 'Night of the Long Knives' event. If they're allowed to keep doing things like this, intimidating the Ukrainian government and other parts of the army and security forces, then they'll probably deal incredible damage to the Ukrainian war effort. The conflict between fascist radicals and the regular army and government may destabilise them severely. If they become dominant they'll refuse any negotiations with Russia, summarily executing anyone suspected of dealing with them, and they'll probably guarantee that Russia changes its attitude towards one of no mercy at all. Perhaps even ordinary Ukrainians will find themselves preferring to get a better deal collaborating with the Russians than being subject to mass executions and terror from the likes of the Azov Battalion. Let's just hope moderates prevail on the Ukrainian side and it doesn't come to that.

[caltrek]

Prosecutors Urged to Act Now to Verify Claims of Russian War Crimes
by Milica Stojanovic
March 6, 2022

https://www.eurasiareview.com/06032022- ... -analysis/

Introduction:

(The Eurasian Review) As the International Criminal Court starts to probe allegations that Russia is committing war crimes in Ukraine, legal experts warn that prosecutors face serious obstacles to bringing senior officials to justice.

“Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is grave, severe and defined by one characteristic only: aggression,” Agnes Callamard, secretary-general of Amnesty International, said on Wednesday.

“Russia is invading into the heart of Ukraine, seeking to depose its lawfully elected government, with a real and potential massive impact on civilians’ lives, safety and well-being; its acts cannot remotely be justified on any of the grounds that Russia has offered.”

Since February 24, when Russia invaded Ukraine, there have been a series of reports of attacks on residential areas, indiscriminate shelling and other alleged violations of international humanitarian law.

The Kyiv Independent reported on February 28 that Russian forces blasted Kharkiv, Ukraine’s second-largest city, with Grad multiple rocket launcher systems, striking residential buildings and killing 11 people. Other media have reported similar attacks on other Ukrainian cities.

[Cyber_Rebel]

Now, for a slightly different Russian perspective.

[caltrek]

What’s Awaiting Russia May be Much Worse than the Chaos of the 1990s
by Maximilian Hess
March 4, 2022

https://www.aljazeera.com/opinions/2022 ... -than-1991

Extract:

(Al Jazeera) Although the fact that countries such as Switzerland and Singapore have joined the latest (sanction) actions demonstrate how broad outrage at Putin’s unilateral war of aggression is, there remains the potential that some third parties can mitigate the extent of the economic disaster Russia is facing. China is the only partner with the ability to truly bail out Moscow, but so far all indications are that it sees Russia’s actions as more of a threat to its attempts to undermine US dollar hegemony than an opportunity.

India, which refused to condemn Russia’s invasion at the United Nations General Assembly, is also reportedly working on a rupee workaround for sanctions. It has facilitated the evasion of Russian sanctions before, with Rosneft’s purchase of Essar Oil (since renamed Nayara), but any such action in the present environment would be a far higher risk. Washington may well threaten secondary sanctions.

Yet even if India’s Modi does engage in a full sanctions-busting regime, it will not be anywhere near a sufficient panacea to save the Russian economy. China is likely to take record gains through agreements to purchase Russian gas at even cheaper prices than before, but major aid will likely be limited. Such aid would make Russia subservient to Beijing anyway, hardly the kind of new multipolar order Putin hoped the war would usher in.

[weatheriscool]

White House Says U.S., Poland Working on Warplanes for Ukraine
Source: Bloomberg

(Bloomberg) -- The U.S. is working with Poland and consulting with other NATO allies on possibly having those countries supply warplanes to Ukraine for use against Russian forces, a White House spokesperson said.

The idea, though rejected by several eastern European members of the alliance this week, was floated by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy during a video call with a large group of U.S. lawmakers on Saturday. Several said afterward that they support an aircraft transfer, which could involve Russian-made planes on which Ukrainian pilots are trained.

President Joe Biden’s administration is considering finding replacements for any fighter jets Poland might send from its fleet to Ukraine, the spokesperson said. The decision is Poland’s to make, the spokesperson said, adding that there are logistical and other challenges, including how to transfer aircraft from Poland to Ukraine.

snip...

The discussion involves the possibility of sending the countries, including Poland and Slovakia, F-16 fighter jets to replace what they send Ukraine, a person familiar with the matter said.

Read more: https://www.bloombergquint.com/politics ... es-oil-ban

[Xyls]

So I guess our "Certain Russian user"'s avatar is actually a full on war symbol... almost reminds me of Q in the United States.

https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/15 ... eaning-evg

I think a ban may be in order...

[joe00uk]

I think a ban may be in order...

Oh God, don't even start going down that road...

[Xyls]

I think a ban may be in order...

Oh God, don't even start going down that road...

Can and have...

[joe00uk]

Can and have...

Not unless Will or another moderator bans him. But I doubt that will happen, or else it would have happened long ago on the old forum. Starting down this road of banning people for having opposing viewpoints is how very quickly you end up with a sterile echo chamber that most people don't want to participate in.

[Maximus]

Can and have...

Not unless Will or another moderator bans him. But I doubt that will happen, or else it would have happened long ago on the old forum. Starting down this road of banning people for having opposing viewpoints is how very quickly you end up with a sterile echo chamber that most people don't want to participate in.

I mean at this point, allowing such a contribution is like giving importance and a voice to a Nazi in 1939. He supports this invasion and war. He believes Ukrainians deserve to die over some historical butthurt. On the old forum he put it in no uncertain terms (and I trust you all remember this clearly) how much he was looking forward to Russia nuking Eastern European countries. He's an ultranationalist, and that's the perspective you're getting. It's not exactly hard to predict what he's gonna say. Would hearing a Nazi in 1939 tell you how much he hates Jews really be that educational? "Ah yes, Austria deserves to be annexed, and Poland shouldn't exist as a country. What a refreshing perspective."

Well, it's not up to me, but that's what I make of it.

[raklian]