Ukraine War Watch Thread

[caltrek]

Tech Shows Spine
by Alex Wilhem
March 5, 2022

https://techcrunch.com/2022/03/05/ukrai ... aluations/

Extract:

(TechCrunch) I was worried that when Russia invaded Ukraine that the world would not step up to the task of giving a shit. Happily, however, the opposite has largely happened. And even more, tech has taken a stand.

And not just a positioning or verbal response to the ridiculous and tragic invasion, but a business-impacting response. When Microsoft and others stop selling stuff in Russia, Airbnb pulls out, and other tech companies large and small make noise, it’s encouraging.

What do the actions add up to? We don’t know yet, but Russia is taking a similar tack, banning social services in the country that its citizens might have used to, you know, figure out what is actually going on. So we’re seeing a blackout of tech products and services from both internal and external sources in the country. Given how much of the world Russia touches, in both geographic and economic terms, we’re in experimental territory.

Perhaps the tech moves will prove footnote to the larger international sanctions push. But they do indicate to any other nation considering using its military power to crush smaller nations that the response to such action won’t only come from nation-states, perhaps adding a little weight against such belligerence.

[wjfox]

[caltrek]

Certain Russian: If anyone thought that sanctions and hysterical "cancelling" of everything Russian in the West may lead to some other result - he doesn't know a damn thing about our people.

Joe00uk: As for sanctions, yes, I think they're complete idiocy. To think they'll "stop Putin's war machine" is ridiculous. It's the same logic that drove sanctions on Cuba and North Korea thinking they would lead to regime change. They did no such thing. The result is that the reorientation of the Russian economy away from the West and towards China will only pick up speed. Already Sberbank is launching an initiative with China's UnionPay in response to Visa and Mastercard suspending their services in Russia. The Russian economy is going through a shock, but like 1998, it will likely be limited in duration and this time it will only last as long as it takes to replace Western investments and assets with Chinese alternatives. The West is in the weaker position. It thinks it's isolating Russia from the world, but really it's isolating itself from Russia, which is an incredibly costly mistake.

At this point, I think it is almost irrelevant whether sanctions work in the short and medium terms. If Russia wants to pursue a semi-isolationist policy for bizarre reasons of nationalism and paranoia, then so be it. If they trust relations with China more than relations with the rest of the world, then so be it.

It is like the way corporations pay attention to their branding image. Sometimes threats of boycott or reduced sales will persuade them to change their behavior, and sometimes it doesn’t. In the meantime, consumers get the satisfaction of no longer cooperating with a company that pursues bad policies. Usually, sensitivity to public image has subtle effects on long term behavior.

Right now, the Made in Russia brand is sinking fast in public opinion throughout much of the world. If Russia wants to compensate for that by establishing closer relations with China, be my guest. Somehow, I think that Russians will come to regret that decision.

As for banning. How ironic that Certain Russian would accuse W J Fox of fearing outside opinions at this time. Are the reports of a crack-down on dissident media in Russia not correct? Does that not give evidence of further paranoia on Putin’s part?

[andmar74]

Arming Ukraine: 17,000 Anti-Tank Weapons in 6 Days and a Clandestine Cybercorps
The United States has walked to the edge of direct conflict with Russia in an operation that is reminiscent of the Berlin airlift of 1948-49, but far more complex.

But as the weapons flow in and if efforts to interfere in Russian communications and computer networks escalate, some U.S. national security officials say they have a foreboding that such conflict is increasingly likely. The American legal definitions of what constitutes entering the war are not Mr. Putin’s definitions, one senior American national security official warned over the weekend, speaking on the condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the American overt and covert efforts to aid Ukraine.

But when the president approved $350 million in military aid on Feb. 26 — nearly six times larger — 70 percent of it was delivered in five days. The speed was considered essential, officials said, because the equipment — including anti-tank weapons — had to make it through western Ukraine before Russian air and ground forces started attacking the shipments. As Russia takes more territory inside the country, it is expected to become more and more difficult to distribute weapons to Ukrainian troops.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/06/us/p ... apons.html

[wjfox]

[weatheriscool]

Russian embassy in Dublin attacked
https://www.irishtimes.com/news/crime-a ... -1.4820488

[weatheriscool]

Russia will stop 'in a moment' if Ukraine meets terms - Kremlin
Source: Reuters

Russia has told Ukraine it is ready to halt military operations "in a moment" if Kyiv meets a list of conditions, the Kremlin spokesman said on Monday.

Dmitry Peskov said Moscow was demanding that Ukraine cease military action, change its constitution to enshrine neutrality, acknowledge Crimea as Russian territory, and recognise the separatist republics of Donetsk and Lugansk as independent states. It was the most explicit Russian statement so far of the terms it wants to impose on Ukraine to halt what it calls its "special military operation", now in its 12th day.
…
But the Kremlin spokesman insisted Russia was not seeking to make any further territorial claims on Ukraine and said it was "not true" that it was demanding Kyiv be handed over.
…
The outlining of Russia's demands came as delegations from Russia and Ukraine prepared to meet on Monday for a third round of talks aimed at ending Russia’s war against Ukraine.
…
"For the rest. Ukraine is an independent state that will live as it wants, but under conditions of neutrality."

Read more: https://www.reuters.com/world/kremlin-s ... 022-03-07/

[raklian]

Russia will stop 'in a moment' if Ukraine meets terms - Kremlin

To the Ukrainians, it's no different than a bully saying "I'll stop hitting you if you give me your lunch."

[Xyls]

Lol... Based on the Russian narrative wouldn't this be like allowing Hitler to stay chancellor while changing out Himmler to someone more sympathetic to them. Ukraine (while flawed) is a democracy and will NEVER agree to this.

It's one thing if they want Ukraine not to join NATO. Which Ukraine has already said they would consider.

Recognizing all those territories as independent? Crimea I could maybe see Ukraine looking at... DPR and LPR? Not a chance.

What guarantees does Ukraine get from Russia, as they are blatantly interfering with internal affairs.

All this argument about removing Nazis from Ukraine is bullshit with those terms LMAO. So it's a land grab... plain and simple... has nothing to do with liberating anyone...

[weatheriscool]

Russia looks to recruit Syrians into Ukraine war: report
Source: The Hill

Russian officials are looking to recruit Syrian soldiers to fight in Ukraine as battles are set to intensity in and around major cities, The Wall Street Journal reported. U.S. officials told the Journal that Moscow is specifically recruiting Syrian fighters for their expertise in urban combat fighting.

Troops loyal to Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, who is backed by Russia, have been fighting a fierce battle in urban centers for nearly a decade, giving them a skill set hard to find among Russian troops.

One official said while it's unclear how many Syrian fighters will join the battle, some are already in Russia preparing to enter the conflict, per the Journal.

The involvement of Syrian troops would further internationalize a war that began with Russia's invasion on February 24.

Read more: https://thehill.com/policy/internationa ... war-report

[Maximus]

Arming Ukraine: 17,000 Anti-Tank Weapons in 6 Days and a Clandestine Cybercorps
The United States has walked to the edge of direct conflict with Russia in an operation that is reminiscent of the Berlin airlift of 1948-49, but far more complex.

But as the weapons flow in and if efforts to interfere in Russian communications and computer networks escalate, some U.S. national security officials say they have a foreboding that such conflict is increasingly likely. The American legal definitions of what constitutes entering the war are not Mr. Putin’s definitions, one senior American national security official warned over the weekend, speaking on the condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the American overt and covert efforts to aid Ukraine.

But when the president approved $350 million in military aid on Feb. 26 — nearly six times larger — 70 percent of it was delivered in five days. The speed was considered essential, officials said, because the equipment — including anti-tank weapons — had to make it through western Ukraine before Russian air and ground forces started attacking the shipments. As Russia takes more territory inside the country, it is expected to become more and more difficult to distribute weapons to Ukrainian troops.

Yeah, I think the US and Europe have given as much military aid as we should. I think plans to transfer jet planes from Poland to Ukraine should be scrapped, and we should accept Ukraine will become neutral.

[Maximus]

Russia will stop 'in a moment' if Ukraine meets terms - Kremlin
Source: Reuters

Russia has told Ukraine it is ready to halt military operations "in a moment" if Kyiv meets a list of conditions, the Kremlin spokesman said on Monday.

Dmitry Peskov said Moscow was demanding that Ukraine cease military action, change its constitution to enshrine neutrality, acknowledge Crimea as Russian territory, and recognise the separatist republics of Donetsk and Lugansk as independent states. It was the most explicit Russian statement so far of the terms it wants to impose on Ukraine to halt what it calls its "special military operation", now in its 12th day.
…
But the Kremlin spokesman insisted Russia was not seeking to make any further territorial claims on Ukraine and said it was "not true" that it was demanding Kyiv be handed over.
…
The outlining of Russia's demands came as delegations from Russia and Ukraine prepared to meet on Monday for a third round of talks aimed at ending Russia’s war against Ukraine.
…
"For the rest. Ukraine is an independent state that will live as it wants, but under conditions of neutrality."

Read more: https://www.reuters.com/world/kremlin-s ... 022-03-07/

These seem like more reasonable demands than before, when they were asking for the army to disband and the entire government to resign. I think Ukraine should consider accepting. Let's be real, they will never reconquer the separatist republics, or Crimea. Those are gone. Obviously there will be many Russian strings attached (they want to choose the PM), but this is a big step in the right direction. Although given Russia's history in this conflict, I wouldn't trust them to hold to any promise of withdrawal.

[Yuli Ban]

Communists all follow the same ideology.

There are revisionists which claim or think they are Marxists who go against Marxism I used to be one.

They most certainly do not. Vast majority of communists in Eastern Europe, Africa, and Asia are fairly to very socially conservative. And in fact, this even used to be the case with a lot of Western communists.
There was a schism after the rise of the New Left in the late '60s.

[weatheriscool]

Russian Air Force already lost four newest Su-34 fighter-bombers in Ukraine
Source: Defense Blog

Russian Armed Forces reportedly have suffered heavy losses with 11,000 men dead and over 1000 pieces of large hardware lost, including modern combat aircraft.

The Ukrainian Ministry of Defense on Sunday reported that Russian Su-34s struck at Ukrainian military infrastructure and civilian residents in Kharkiv, Chernihiv during an invasion.

According to the observer under the Oryx nickname, one Fullback was shot down on March 1st, two more were shot down on March 5th and one yesterday, March 6th.

...

In a statement, the Ukrainian General Staff said that since the beginning of the war, the Ukrainian army has destroyed 46 Russian-owned aircraft and 68 helicopters.

Read more: https://defence-blog.com/russian-air-fo ... n-ukraine/

[andmar74]

Russia will stop 'in a moment' if Ukraine meets terms - Kremlin
Source: Reuters

Russia has told Ukraine it is ready to halt military operations "in a moment" if Kyiv meets a list of conditions, the Kremlin spokesman said on Monday.

Dmitry Peskov said Moscow was demanding that Ukraine cease military action, change its constitution to enshrine neutrality, acknowledge Crimea as Russian territory, and recognise the separatist republics of Donetsk and Lugansk as independent states. It was the most explicit Russian statement so far of the terms it wants to impose on Ukraine to halt what it calls its "special military operation", now in its 12th day.
…
But the Kremlin spokesman insisted Russia was not seeking to make any further territorial claims on Ukraine and said it was "not true" that it was demanding Kyiv be handed over.
…
The outlining of Russia's demands came as delegations from Russia and Ukraine prepared to meet on Monday for a third round of talks aimed at ending Russia’s war against Ukraine.
…
"For the rest. Ukraine is an independent state that will live as it wants, but under conditions of neutrality."

Read more: https://www.reuters.com/world/kremlin-s ... 022-03-07/

These seem like more reasonable demands than before, when they were asking for the army to disband and the entire government to resign. I think Ukraine should consider accepting. Let's be real, they will never reconquer the separatist republics, or Crimea. Those are gone. Obviously there will be many Russian strings attached (they want to choose the PM), but this is a big step in the right direction. Although given Russia's history in this conflict, I wouldn't trust them to hold to any promise of withdrawal.

Putin has realised Russia can't win this war. He is looking for a way out. It has been a catastrophe from the start. If he is not careful, the Ukrainians could kick them out. It will be difficult to find an agreement everyone can live with. I think the sanctions are working very well, Putin is in trouble at home also.

[Xyls]

The asks are more "reasonable" but still aren't going to happen...

At MOST I can see Russia getting:

Agreement to transfer Crimea/Officially recognize the territory as Russian...
Agreement from Ukraine not to proceed with NATO membership (perhaps in a constitutional referendum)
Water access for Crimea in some sort of water sharing agreement.

And that really is about it. Everything else is really a non-starter.

[Doozer]

I think this while affair is going to end in a ceasefire, resulting in everything going back to square one.

[Certain Russian user]

Russian government has just radically expanded the official (so far it was rather stillborn and pointless) list of unfriendly states and territories. Now it includes USA, Britain, Canada, Australia, all the countries of EU, Japan, South Korea, and some others, down to Micronesia and Ukraine.

This is not just some funny “list of enemies to curse”, there will be legal implications. One of them: Russia no longer recognize any patents issued in these countries. Furthermore: all the existing debts to residents of such unfriendly countries will be nominated in rubles and paid to special bank accounts inside Russia.

[Certain Russian user]

And new gas prices (above 3500 USD per 1000 cubic meters) are… well, priceless.

It seems “Nord Stream - 2” brings us much more being not launched than if it was launched. Magic, pure magic!

Do you think this is already the peak? Probably not. Russia may not wait for new blows and completely, “till the end of the crisis”, turn off the “Nord Stream - 1”. Such proposals were already voiced. Other hand, the agonizing Ukrainian regime already threatening to destroy the pipelines on their territory (and why not, they already have nothing to lose).

This year going to be interesting. Not sure about you, guys, but I'm not Chinese and my personal motto is exactly the opposite to theirs. Blessed are those living in a time of change.

And yes, my sincere congratulations on Women's Day. Women, stay women no matter what!

[R8Z]

^ no reason to celebrate as a ruski. Russians are ironically the ones that will be hurt the most by this war in the long term, now almost independently from the outcome of the conflict.