Russia Watch Thread

[Maximus]

Morgan Stanley Says Russia’s Set for Venezuela-Style Default

The odds of Russia making its foreign debt payments are diminishing as bond prices fall, recession in the nation looms and various payment restrictions pile up after the invasion of Ukraine, according to Morgan Stanley & Co.

“We see a default as the most likely scenario,” Simon Waever, the firm’s global head of emerging-market sovereign credit strategy, wrote in a Monday note. “In case of default, it is unlikely to be like a normal one, with Venezuela instead perhaps the most relevant comparison.”

The default may come as soon as April 15, which will mark the end of a 30-day grace period on coupon payments the Russian government owes on dollar bonds due in 2023 and 2043, he said.

Indicative pricing show investors value the 2023 bonds at around 29 cents on the U.S. dollar, the lowest ever, according to data collected by Bloomberg, though there appears to have been no trades at that level. In the days before Russia invaded Ukraine last month, the debt was trading above par.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... bt-default

[weatheriscool]

Coca-Cola, Pepsi and McDonald's suspend business in Russia
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/08/coca-co ... ussia.html

PepsiCo and Coca-Cola on Tuesday said they were suspending business in Russia after that country’s invasion of Ukraine, joining McDonald’s, Starbucks and host of other U.S. corporations.

“Our hearts are with the people who are enduring unconscionable effects from these tragic events in Ukraine,” Coke said in a brief statement Tuesday afternoon. “We will continue to monitor and assess the situation as circumstances evolve.”

Like McDonald’s, Coke had been under pressure to stop operating in Russia in recent days. However, the market represents one of the few regions worldwide where rival PepsiCo has a larger presence.

Earlier on Tuesday, both McDonald’s and Starbucks announced that their Russian restaurants would temporarily close. Of the two restaurant companies, McDonald’s has a larger presence in the country and receives a higher percentage of its global revenue from those sales. Starbucks also said that all of its Russian business activity is suspended, including shipping its products.

Since the Russian invasion of Crimea in 2014, many U.S. companies have looked to reduce their exposure in both Russia and Ukraine.

[caltrek]

“They Never Had So Many People to Arrest”: Inside Russia’s Anti-Putin Protests
by Molly Schwartz
March 8, 2022

https://www.motherjones.com/politics/20 ... -movement/

(Mother Jones) On a sunny 30-degree Sunday, February 27, Svyatoslav Blokhin, a 24-year-old software developer, saw messages on Telegram channels that protests in Moscow would be starting at 4 p.m.

Blokhin had first joined in the demonstrations on February 24, when the invasion started. On that first day, he didn’t know when or where people were meeting, but he says that his heart called him to participate. “I expected other people to be on the streets,” he told me, “and they were on the streets.”

On that Sunday, Blokhin had started at a different location from the rest of the group to decrease the risk of getting detained by the police. He joined a group of people who had gathered on Novy Arbat Street, a major artery lined with high-rise offices and shopping centers. Blokhin and his wife fell in with a column of hundreds of people, some of them holding homemade signs with slogans like “Putin is a murderer,” and “Freedom for Ukraine.” They marched down the narrow Bolshoi Afanasyevski Lane to the golden-domed Cathedral of Christ the Savior, chanting “net voine,” which means “no to war,” as well as some more profane chants about Russia’s president. “There is a word ‘hooey’ in Russian, which literally translates as a ‘dick,’” Blokhin explained somewhat apologetically. “But in Russian, it sounds more brutal and more aggressive, as do all the swear words in Russian, I guess.”

At the Cathedral of Christ the Savior, the demonstrators ran into groups of Moscow police and Russian National guards, or Rosgvardiya, who started to charge and catch people, subduing them with batons. Blokhin got out of the way, joining around 350 people who crossed a bridge toward Gorky Park.

From the bridge, he saw buses of police rolling in, about 1,000 according to Blokhin’s estimate. Being so outnumbered, Blokhin and his wife’s only option was to escape. “I’m angry. I’m scared, of course, and I’m nervous. But the main feeling is anger, and I want other people to join protesters on the streets.” he says.

[wjfox]

Nestle to halt all capital investment in Russia over invasion of Ukraine

45 minutes ago

Nestle has suspended all capital investment in Russia amid growing pressure on multinational firms to pull out of the country after it invaded Ukraine.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/busi ... 32119.html

[weatheriscool]

Sony suspends all PlayStation sales in Russia over Ukraine war
Source: CNBC

Sony has stopped selling its PlayStation consoles and software in Russia, becoming the latest major brand to withdraw from the country over the Ukraine war.

A representative for Sony’s video game unit said in a statement on Wednesday that the company has suspended all software and hardware shipments in the country, as well as the launch of new racing title Gran Turismo 7. The PlayStation Store also will no longer be available in Russia.

“Sony Interactive Entertainment (SIE) joins the global community in calling for peace in Ukraine,” the company said.

“To support humanitarian aid, Sony Group Corporation announced a $2 million donation to the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) and the international NGO, Save the Children, to support the victims of this tragedy,” the company statement added.

-snip-

Read more: https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/09/sony-su ... e-war.html

[weatheriscool]

Caterpillar, Deere Join Firms Suspending Business in Russia
Source: Bloomberg

Two of the world’s largest manufacturers of machinery equipment needed for everything from farms to construction sites said they suspended business in Russia following the nation’s invasion of Ukraine, further isolating the country from the global economy.

Deere & Co. said it halted shipments of machines to Russia two weeks ago as the nation invaded Ukraine, and subsequently stopped deliveries to Belarus. Caterpillar Inc. said it suspended operations at its plants in Russia as doing business in the country has become increasingly challenging due to factors including supply chain disruptions and sanctions.

Deere is the world’s largest producer of farm equipment ranging from tractors to planters to combines. Caterpillar producers equipment critical to the construction, mining and oil and gas industries across the globe.

-snip-

“John Deere is deeply saddened by the significant escalation of events in Ukraine,” Jennifer Hartmann, a Deere spokeswoman, said in an emailed statement. “Two weeks ago, we suspended shipments of machines to Russia and then subsequently, Belarus. We continue to monitor the situation closely while we fully abide by U.S. and international sanctions.”

-snip-

Read more: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... nd-belarus

[raklian]

The brain drain is intensifying and Russia is using draconian measures to try stemming the flow.

[Maximus]

Russia says its businesses can steal patents from anyone in ‘unfriendly’ countries

Russia has effectively legalized patent theft from anyone affiliated with countries “unfriendly” to it, declaring that unauthorized use will not be compensated.

The decree, issued this week, illustrates the economic war waged around Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, as the West levies sanctions and pulls away from Russia’s huge oil and gas industry. Russian officials have also raised the possibility of lifting restrictions on some trademarks, according to state media, which could allow continued use of brands such as McDonald’s that are withdrawing from Russia in droves.

The effect of losing patent protections will vary by company, experts say, depending on whether they have a valuable patent in Russia. The U.S. government has long warned of intellectual property rights violations in the country; last year Russia was among nine nations on a “priority watch list” for alleged failures to protect intellectual property. Now Russian entities could not be sued for damages if they use certain patents without permission.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business ... ent-theft/

Putin playing 5D chess has managed to collapse Russia's economy in two weeks, ensuring no Western or allied country invests in Russia again. Tactical genius.

[weatheriscool]

Biden announces US will move to revoke 'most favored nation' trade status for Russia
Source: CNBC

(CNN) President Joe Biden announced Friday that the US, along with the G7 and European Union, will call for revoking "most favored nation" status for Russia, referred to as permanent normal trade relations in the US.

Biden said the move and said it would hold Russian President Vladimir Putin "even more accountable for his aggression against Ukraine."
"Each of our nations will take steps to deny 'most favored nation' status to Russia. A most favored nation status designation means two countries have agreed to trade with each other under the best possible terms -- low tariffs, few barriers to trade and the highest possible imports allowed," Biden said.

"In the United States, we call this permanent normal trade relations, PNTR, but it's the same thing. Revoking PNTR for Russia is going to make it harder for Russia to do business with the United States and doing it in unison with other nations that make up half of the global economy will be another crushing blow to the Russian economy that's already suffering very badly from our sanctions."

The move requires an act of Congress. The move was one of multiple new actions on trade expected to be made by the Biden administration toward Russia. The United States will also ban imports of alcohol and seafood, such as vodka and caviar, from Russia, a White House official told CNN.

Read more: https://www.cnn.com/2022/03/10/politics ... index.html

[andmar74]

As Russia's economy gets pummeled by increasingly severe western sanctions for its invasion of Ukraine, the country's crucial airline industry could soon find itself on life support.

https://edition.cnn.com/2022/03/11/busi ... index.html

[caltrek]

JP Morgan, Goldman Sachs Make Russia Exit
by Tom Burroughes
March 14, 2022

https://www.wealthbriefing.com/html/art ... ?id=193956

Introduction:

(Wealth Briefing) Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan are pulling out of Russia following the invasion of Ukraine.

“Goldman Sachs is winding down its business in Russia in compliance with regulatory and licensing requirements. We are focused on supporting our clients across the globe in managing or closing out pre-existing obligations in the market and ensuring the wellbeing of our people,” the US-listed group told this news service in a statement.

Goldman Sachs has a credit exposure to Russia of $650 million. Any losses would be "immaterial," according to a source familiar with the situation, Reuters reported.

A spokesperson for JP Morgan told FWR: "In compliance with directives by governments around the world, we have been actively unwinding Russian business and have not been pursuing any new business in Russia. Current activities are limited, including helping global clients address and close out pre-existing obligations; managing their Russia-related risk; acting as a custodian to our clients; and taking care of our employees."

The firm previously announced its commitment of up to $5 million to support humanitarian relief efforts including an employee contribution match. "Our commitment will support organisations to provide emergency food, housing and medical services to those in need," the bank added.

[weatheriscool]

Putin's invasion of Ukraine will knock the Russian economy back by 30 years
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/14/putins- ... years.html

WASHINGTON — Vladimir Putin’s unprovoked war on Ukraine and the resulting global response will set Russia’s economy back by at least 30 years — close to old Soviet Union times — and lower its standard of living for at least the next five years, according to economists, investors and diplomats.

The sweeping Western sanctions are designed to inflict maximum pain on Russia’s economy by expelling it from global markets and freezing assets around the world. From the moment they took effect three weeks ago, the sanctions have opened a new chapter in the country’s economic history.

Russia’s financial system and currency are collapsing on multiple fronts, forcing the Kremlin to close the stock market and artificially prop up the ruble inside its borders.

Practically overnight, the country’s 40-year effort to build a prosperous market-based economy that began under former leader Mikhail Gorbachev has failed, one more casualty in President Putin’s brutal invasion of Ukraine.

[caltrek]

In its Quest to Censor War Reporting, the Russian Government has Dismantled all Semblance of Press Freedom
by Trevor Timm
March 15, 2022

https://freedom.press/news/in-its-quest ... s-freedom/

Introduction:

(Freedom of the Press Foundation) Russia has long been a dangerous place for independent journalists. But in the past week, President Vladimir Putin’s government has swiftly stamped out any remaining semblance of press freedom, in an attempt to prevent its populace from learning the truth about its brutal invasion of Ukraine.

Almost immediately after tanks started rolling across the Ukrainian border, Russian government authorities reportedly started issuing ominous edicts to newspapers to stop using certain words and phrases in their reporting. Nobel Peace Prize winner Dmitry Muratov, who runs the Russian newspaper Novaya Gazeta, told The New Yorker on Feb. 28, “We received an order to ban the use of the words ‘war,’ ‘occupation,’ ‘invasion.’” He continued, “However, we continue to call war war. We are waiting for the consequences.” Many other publications received similar messages.

Putin quickly made these authoritarian “warnings” official policy. As the Washington Post reported, the Russian Parliament passed a new law “banning what it considers ‘fake’ news about the military, including any rhetoric that calls the invasion of Ukraine an “invasion” — the preferred language is “special military operation” — with a potential 15-year prison sentence.”

According to the Committee to Protect Journalists, only four days after the invasion began, five journalists were already facing charges “and dozens more were detained across Russia following their coverage of anti-war protests.” An independent newspaper, which put anti-war messages (rough translation: “the madness must be stopped!”) on its front page, found its offices raided by government authorities.

On March 1, two television networks which aired criticism of the invasion were reportedly taken off the air. By March 3, journalists from Dozhd, what CNN described as “the last remaining independent news network in Russia” fled the country over fears of their own safety. "After the blocking of Dozhd's website, Dozhd's social media accounts, and the threat against some employees, it is obvious that the personal safety of some of us is at risk," said Dozhd’s chief.

caltrek's comment: I feel for Phoenix Ru. For all of his skepticism concerning the "Western Press", I wonder how comfortable he feels with this development.

[wjfox]

Fearing Poisoning, Vladimir Putin Replaces 1,000 of His Personal Staff

First Published: 3:07 PM PDT, March 16, 2022

Vladimir Putin appeared on Russian state TV today to denounce Russians who opposed his war with Ukraine as “scum” and “traitors.”

But behind the scenes, the dictator is increasingly paranoid and fears that someone in his inner circle will poison him, a new report says.

Daily Beast contributing editor Craig Copetas says he’s been told that Putin has people tasting his food before he eats it and that last month, he replaced his entire personal staff of 1,000 people.

“Laundresses, secretaries, cooks — to a whole new group of people. The assessment from the intelligence community is that he's scared,” Copetas said.

Copetas says that the preferred method of assassination in Russia is poison.

https://www.insideedition.com/fearing-p ... taff-73847

[funkervogt]

Here's the full speech that Putin gave yesterday (March 16).

[raklian]

Fearing Poisoning, Vladimir Putin Replaces 1,000 of His Personal Staff

I suppose he is now cooking meals for himself.

[funkervogt]

Fearing Poisoning, Vladimir Putin Replaces 1,000 of His Personal Staff

I suppose he is now cooking meals for himself.

"More ramen noodles, anyone?"

[wjfox]

Or a nice cup of polonium tea.

[wjfox]

[wjfox]