Ukraine War Watch Thread

[wjfox]

Not just Putin: Most Russians support the war in Ukraine

March 10, 2022

[...]

Recent polling data provides the clearest indication of Russian popular support for the war in Ukraine. In the days following the February 24 invasion, Putin’s personal approval rating actually rose to multi-year highs. According to state pollster VTsIOM, his rating jumped six percent in the week ending February 27 to reach 70%. Fellow polling agency FOM recorded a seven percent increase over the same period, bringing approval of Putin to 71%.

Ordinary Russians have been queuing up to publicly endorse the war effort. The “Z” branding used by Russian troops in Ukraine is becoming increasingly ubiquitous across the country as a shorthand symbol of support, while a rapidly expanding list of public figures and professional collectives have released statements backing the invasion. For example, the heads of 250 Russian universities published an official address by the Union of Russian Rectors on March 4 justifying the war and calling on Russians to rally around Putin.

[...]

In light of majority Russian backing for the invasion, it is unrealistic to expect sanctions or global condemnation to convince Putin of the need for a change in policy. On the contrary, rising costs imposed by the international community will only encourage more Russians to back the war effort and persuade them that the very existence of an independent Ukraine is part of a vast anti-Russian conspiracy. In this alternative reality, mounting hardships will be seen as the inevitable price of defending Russia against foreign enemies.

If the democratic world is serious about stopping Putin, it must abandon any hope of domestic opposition to the war. There will be no palace coups or popular uprisings as long as most Russians continue to share Putin’s unhinged obsession with the subjugation of Ukraine. Instead, the only way to influence Russia is by depriving it of the revenues to fund its war machine while dramatically increasing Ukraine’s ability to defend itself.

Putin’s Ukraine invasion is the defining moment of his entire reign and he enjoys the emphatic backing of the Russian people. He will not back down unless he is bankrupted and bloodied.

https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/u ... n-ukraine/

[andmar74]

[weatheriscool]

Zelensky claims Ukraine is inflicting "biggest blow to the Russian army in decades"
Source: CNN

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has claimed that Ukrainian forces are inflicting the “biggest blow to Russia’s army in decades.”

In a Facebook video address Saturday Zelensky said 31 Russian tactical battalion groups have lost capability, and more than 360 Russian tanks have been lost.

Zelensky added that groups of Russian troops were surrendering to Ukrainian forces, but that Russia is now recruiting fighters, reservists, conscripts, and mercenaries to “outnumber” Ukrainian forces.

Addressing the city of Mariupol, Zelensky said that Ukrainian forces will guarantee a ceasefire along the evacuation corridor out of the city to allow supplies into the city, and to facilitate civilian evacuations.

-snip-

Read more: https://www.cnn.com/europe/live-news/uk ... ec0e2068f0

[wjfox]

[R8Z]

"We must do more" -- Alexander S. Vindman

What a fool. Why don't you bring yourself and your family to the battlefield then if you want to wage war so much. I heard they are distributing rifles and Panzerfausts for volunteers there. Warmongers and war cheerers from the world deserve to be shipped to Ukraine and I am not even joking.

[andmar74]

There's no air superiority with all those Stinger missiles in Ukraine.
Sure, Russia has thousands of fighter jets but how many pilots?

[andmar74]

[R8Z]

"We must do more" -- Alexander S. Vindman

What a fool. Why don't you bring yourself and your family to the battlefield then if you want to wage war so much. I heard they are distributing rifles and Panzerfausts for volunteers there. Warmongers and war cheerers from the world deserve to be shipped to Ukraine and I am not even joking.

Now it makes sense. I've research a little bit and the guy is a natural warmonger (as he fought the several useless wars the US has been in this century), together with an Ukrainian nationality as his background. Of course he demands for war endeavor and US blood to be spilled in his national soil: that's all he knows and lived his whole life... Really can't blame him.

On a bright side I am content with the POTUS statement. Great stuff.

[andmar74]

New stamp from ukraine:

[andmar74]

Crazy video of attack on Russian tanks.



Maybe better version: ( Verified by Norwegian press VG, tanks heading south towards Kyiv).
https://www.vgtv.no/video/234629/her-an ... _row3_pos2

[wjfox]

[Maximus]

Russia warns Western arms shipments are now "legitimate" military targets;

Will they launch missiles into Poland? Hopefully the Patriot systems can take care of it.

https://news.sky.com/story/ukraine-war- ... v-12541713

Well it seems like there's no better time than now to discuss this. The second I hear about Russian strikes on convoys inside Poland...I'm running as far from any city, military base, or industrial target as I can. Yeah life's gonna suck in a nuclear wasteland, but I don't wanna risk the bomb not taking me out and then slowly dying over 2 weeks of radiation sickness or third degree burns all over my body. Anyone else have any plans for when things go nuclear?

[wjfox]

[caltrek]

In the Ukraine Conflict, Fake Fact-Checks Are Being Used to Spread Disinformation
by Craig Silverman and Jeff Kao
March 8, 2022

https://www.propublica.org/article/in-t ... nformation

Introduction:

(ProPublica) On March 3, Daniil Bezsonov, an official with the pro-Russian separatist region of Ukraine that styles itself as the Donetsk People’s Republic, tweeted a video that he said revealed “How Ukrainian fakes are made.”

The clip showed two juxtaposed videos of a huge explosion in an urban area. Russian-language captions claimed that one video had been circulated by Ukrainian propagandists who said it showed a Russian missile strike in Kharkiv, the country’s second-largest city.

But, as captions in the second video explained, the footage actually showed a deadly arms depot explosion in the same area back in 2017. The message was clear: Don’t trust footage of supposed Russian missile strikes. Ukrainians are spreading lies about what’s really going on, and pro-Russian groups are debunking them. (Bezsonov did not respond to questions from ProPublica.)

It seemed like yet another example of useful wartime fact-checking, except for one problem: There’s little to no evidence that the video claiming the explosion was a missile strike ever circulated. Instead, the debunking video itself appears to be part of a novel and disturbing campaign that spreads disinformation by disguising it as fact-checking.

Researchers at Clemson University’s Media Forensics Hub and ProPublica identified more than a dozen videos that purport to debunk apparently nonexistent Ukrainian fakes. The videos have racked up more than 1 million views across pro-Russian channels on the messaging app Telegram, and have garnered thousands of likes and retweets on Twitter. A screenshot from one of the fake debunking videos was broadcast on Russian state TV, while another was spread by an official Russian government Twitter account.

[raklian]

[Cyber_Rebel]

Anyone else have any plans for when things go nuclear?

Don't worry. If things start looking too bad, our hidden alien overlords will swoop in to stop our bad behavior. The Oumuamua scout ship was sent into our sector for a status update and will reverse trajectory at never before witnessed speeds if we attempt global annihilation. Putin (and his cronies) will be beamed into the nearest black hole along with all our nuclear weapons, and we'll be "benevolently" assimilated into the greater galactic federation.

We didn't just magically discover the warp drive was possible for it to end so soon. All is going according to plan.

[Maximus]

In the Ukraine Conflict, Fake Fact-Checks Are Being Used to Spread Disinformation
Introduction:

It seemed like yet another example of useful wartime fact-checking, except for one problem: There’s little to no evidence that the video claiming the explosion was a missile strike ever circulated. Instead, the debunking video itself appears to be part of a novel and disturbing campaign that spreads disinformation by disguising it as fact-checking.

Yes, a nice example of a strawman argument. "Look at all this fake news Ukraine is distributing, see you can't trust them!" It's very effective at muddying the waters though. Unfortunately the people in my personal life have very much fallen prey to this, and think the entire war is a fabrication because they saw some Russian propaganda similar to this. They were also COVID hoaxers and pro-Trump coup, if that's any sign of their judgment in matters of disinformation.

[Yuli Ban]

Russia warns Western arms shipments are now "legitimate" military targets;

Will they launch missiles into Poland? Hopefully the Patriot systems can take care of it.

https://news.sky.com/story/ukraine-war- ... v-12541713

Well it seems like there's no better time than now to discuss this. The second I hear about Russian strikes on convoys inside Poland...I'm running as far from any city, military base, or industrial target as I can. Yeah life's gonna suck in a nuclear wasteland, but I don't wanna risk the bomb not taking me out and then slowly dying over 2 weeks of radiation sickness or third degree burns all over my body. Anyone else have any plans for when things go nuclear?

I posted this many, many pages back:

Well, we're not going to be able to avoid this discussion forever it seems.

So my thoughts on it haven't changed since my Walpurgisnacht panic attack back in 2014: do hope that one of three things is the reality if nuclear war breaks out—

• Most nuclear weapons are defective, intercepted, and small-yield. Nuclear winter fails to materialize. Agriculture, though reduced, remains. An exchange of less than 1,000 working warheads total, with the vast majority being Hiroshima-sized or smaller, would be devastating but survivable for humanity and possibly even civilization. It'd irreversibly change us, but in the end, life would indeed go on. It would be of vital importance for all humankind that a certain number of companies (you know which ones) survive largely unscathed. If that's the case, you can even rejoice— now they get to act with even fewer restrictions and hold-ups. I call this the "Accelerant Theory," as I thought about it back in 2016-2017 while working on Mother Meki (remember that one?) and realized that there is a sliver of possibility, small but undeniably there, where nuclear war is destructive but not civilization-killingly so in a way that actually forces post-modern and futurist concepts to life faster. If you'd like me to explain this, just ask.
• You live in a place that will be bombed. I'm not so lucky, as I live in nondescript small city (less than 25,000 people) away from military installations, missile silos, or important targets. I'll almost certainly just lose electricity and hear the dull thump of civilization falling around me. I don't even live in the fallout zone. If it's a full exchange and it's clear that most companies like DeepMind, OpenAI, Microsoft, Baidu, etc. have not at all survived, I'll probably just off myself and get it over with if I feel there's no point. But if you are lucky to live in cities like London, Moscow, New York City, Boston, state capitals, or near big military bases, congratulations! Your end will almost certainly be quick unless you live outside the instant-kill zone. In which it'll be horrifyingly slow. Otherwise, get used to living in the 1800s for a good long while. Maybe the 1950s in places with generators and quickly-reinstalled electricity. It won't last forever.
• The USicans or Ruskies were being naughty naughty little children and developed things they shouldn't have. Things like cobalt bombs. In which case, I speak no hyperbole when I say "everyone dies." In that case, we won't worry about our end for long. I call this one "Clean Slate Theory" because it means that those in power decided that, should nuclear war happens, we ought to just start Earth off as a clean slate again. In which case maybe the birds, octopi, or chimps will develop civilization again someday.

For whatever reason, the US intel doesn't think nuclear war is happening though. They're not buying into the idea Putin's actually gone MAD.

Reading up on the literature further, I only feel even worse for those who might live in big cities. There's a very good chance that a lot of nuclear weapons simply do not work, but enough DO work to make the aftereffects of nuclear war hellish. As such, there simply is no guarantee of death except if you live in a major global city or near a major military installation. A place like Cincinnati or Sheffield, though? Faintly possible that whatever warhead comes your way could be a dud. Similarly goes for our Russian friend in Samara. It's not the 80s anymore, and nuclear warheads are likely only being checked up on for the ability to actually fire with no way to test whether they'll actually detonate or if they'll detonate at full yield (as plenty of tests were accidentally damped through a failure for all mechanisms to fire off perfectly).
Imagine living in a major city, miraculously surviving nuclear war because the warhead with your city's name on it flunked, but supply lines are completely cut off because the other nukes still pulled through. Could see megadeaths where you live regardless!

Though again, there's still no indication that US intelligence types think nuclear war is going to happen or even particularly likely. Everything points to this being a European Afghanistan more than anything, at least at this moment.

[Yuli Ban]

While it's topical, I actually did post an extended version of the Accelerant Theory on ThisIsTheWayItWillBe in response to Starspawn0's own anxieties of this going nuclear.

This is the peak of "Cope" and should be utterly disregarded:

The Accelerant Theory is the first one. As mentioned, this theory relies on a sequence of things going horribly right in a nuclear war scenario. First, Russian nuclear weapons prove to be largely outdated, ineffective, nonfunctional, and poorly built. Perhaps up to 20% being duds and more missing their intended targets by vast distances. Then, you have the possibility that the yields are exaggerated and could be smaller than believed. Next, you have the possibility that NATO countries, most notably the USA, has the capability to intercept incoming missiles and bombers. and destroy any possible second-strike capability, possibly even wiping out a first-strike. Out of the 4,500 nuclear warheads that Russia actually has aimed at us, perhaps only 20-30% actually hit their targets. India, China, Israel, and other countries that aren't involved in a NATO-Russia War aren't directly affected.

Next up is the aftereffects. In that situation, nuclear winter fails to materialize. Out of everything in the Accelerant Theory, this is the only one that's actually backed up with real science and has a good chance of being the case, as fears of nuclear winter were overblown in the 80s. As a result, agriculture does not collapse and a super-famine doesn't occur. This would otherwise be the source of 90% of deaths from a nuclear winter, the only thing bringing the death toll from 100-200 million up to over a billion or greater, so almost certainly this won't happen. It wasn't going to happen in the 80s when we had 7x as many nuclear weapons as we do today, of greater power at that, so it probably isn't now unless it turns out to be a reciprocal situation where it turns out the large number of super-big bombs meant less stuff would burn whereas a smaller number of modestly-sized bombs means everything burns. Who knows!

After that, you have more indirect effects. Certain groups survive while others perish. Groups with names like "DeepMind" and "Kernel." They'll suffer regardless because they've lost at least a cool hundred million people who are responsible for creating the most data, but they survive and keep their work. The Tech Elite inherit the Earth, now with no rivals and with carte blanche to do as they please. They might get billions more in funding than they otherwise would. AI projects could be advertised as automating reconstruction. Brain-computer devices could be commercialized more easily.

Plus, the loss of hundreds of millions of the most polluting humans plus some very mild cooling effects in the atmosphere plus greater sci-tech investments plus the collapse of the fossil fuel industry greatly delays the worst effects of climate change, perhaps even drawing temperatures lower for a period of time in a sort of "false nuclear winter."

Finally, the destruction of major cities without the collapse of civilization kickstarts extreme infrastructural projects. This draws money away from the military and towards nation-building and technology by necessity, revamping aging infrastructure and perhaps even giving us some glittery futuristic cityscapes.

Final result: the Singularity winds up happening sooner than it otherwise would. Humaity wound up using the blackened ashes of nuclear war as a springboard to the Future™.

It's a terrifyingly optimistic outlook for nuclear war that, like I said, hinges on way too many things going right. I think of it as a coping mecanism more than a likely process of events. A single warhead straying over San Francisco or London at the right distance and there goes the AI and BCI companies and, thus, the Singularity for at least a hundred years.

[Yuli Ban]

What the science says: Could humans survive a nuclear war between NATO and Russia?

Russian leader Vladimir Putin has suggested that he would consider using nuclear weapons if confronted with a NATO military response in Ukraine, or if faced with a direct threat to his person or regime. If the war spreads to a NATO country like Estonia or Poland a direct US-Russia confrontation would take place, with a clear danger of runaway nuclear escalation.

The world is therefore arguably now closer to nuclear conflict than at any time since the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis. So what would a full-scale nuclear exchange look like in reality? Is it truly global Armageddon, or would it be survivable for some people and places?

Many scientists have investigated this question already. Their work is surprisingly little known, likely because in peacetime no one wants to think the unthinkable. But we are no longer in peacetime and the shadows of multiple mushroom clouds are looming once again over our planet.