Ukraine War Watch Thread

[R8Z]

Here's a long and somewhat sobering analysis of the Ukraine War and its possible outcomes. Skipping the usual points about Russia underestimating Ukraine and making various mistakes, here are some key points:

-The information the West is getting about the War is biased in favor of Ukraine. Proportionately, the Ukrainians have taken higher human, military and economic damage than the Russians.
-The bottom line is that Russia is still gaining territory each day.
-The fighting will probably pause within the next few weeks as the Russian offensives run out of steam. That will provide an opportunity for a peace treaty to be negotiated.
-If it's willing to pay the high price, Russia's military could still take over Ukraine through force. The current offensives will need to be halted first to give the Russian troops time to rest, resupply, and reorganize, and for reinforcements to join them. Instead of signing a peace treaty, Putin could choose to renew the war. The West's sanctions aren't strong enough to stop Russia's army soon enough.
-Russia's armies are fighting on three fronts with three objectives: 1) northern front to seize Kiev, 2) eastern front to encircle Ukraine's armies that were threatening Luhansk and Donbass and to enlarge the sizes of the breakaway territories, and 3) southern front to seize Ukraine's Black Sea coastline. It's now clear they lack the strength to attain all three objectives, and Putin would have been smarter if he'd told his army to focus on only one.

https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/ ... t-00018906

Yup. Some more points that the western media/propaganda misses:

- Russia has now 30% of the global exports of wheat under their rule of law which isn't going to reach the global market any time soon. A global food crisis is to be expected.
- Due to the highly political sanctions the west attached to the dollar and the financial status quo (hurting even neutral countries), there has been strong efforts into establishing a second route for the global finance to transact. The dollar is going down hard with this one.
- (this one is an anecdote and more of a prediction) Brazil is massively profiting out of this conflict. The BRL currency is already the strongest of the world in 2022 and it seems it is only going to improve as investments flow in and agriculture develops even more down here.

[wjfox]

[funkervogt]

- Russia has now 30% of the global exports of wheat under their rule of law which isn't going to reach the global market any time soon. A global food crisis is to be expected.

Ukraine is also a major food exporter, and the disrupted flow of its trade will add to the problem. It's unclear how bad the food "crisis" will be, but keep in mind the Arab Spring was triggered by something like this (https://www.voanews.com/a/article-2011- ... 49523.html). I doubt mass starvation is coming, but there will be serious problems in poor countries where people are already living on the margins and hate their governments anyway.

- Due to the highly political sanctions the west attached to the dollar and the financial status quo (hurting even neutral countries), there has been strong efforts into establishing a second route for the global finance to transact. The dollar is going down hard with this one.

Again, I agree and disagree with you. The West's economic "cancellation" of Russia will drive it, China, and some other countries to create alternatives to the USD reserve currency and to the Western-controlled trade and finance system. It probably would have happened anyway, but now will happen sooner. Still, it will take years.

The demonstrated ability and willingness of Western elites to use their leverage to confiscate assets and destroy livelihoods (of individuals, groups, and entire nations) for offenses, big and small, is creating a backlash.

- (this one is an anecdote and more of a prediction) Brazil is massively profiting out of this conflict. The BRL currency is already the strongest of the world in 2022 and it seems it is only going to improve as investments flow in and agriculture develops even more down here.

Some countries will profit, for sure.

[Yuli Ban]

Modern war is so weird, yet calls back to the past so easily. "Loose lips sink ships"

A Ukrainian man was arrested after posting a TikTok video of military vehicles parked near a shopping mall that was later blown up by Russians.

On Sunday, Russian forces struck a shopping mall on the northwestern outskirts of Kyiv, killing eight people, Reuters reported. The day after, the Security Service of Ukraine posted a video of the man apologizing.

"A TikToker recently posted on the internet about the location of the Ukrainian military in Kyiv," the Security Service said.

It continued: "Later, the shopping center, where our defenders were, was subjected to a powerful missile strike by the Russian occupiers.

[Maximus]

Belarusian military could 'soon' join war in Ukraine, US and NATO officials say

https://edition.cnn.com/2022/03/22/euro ... index.html

Then the Ukrainian military just have to butcher them too.
Clearly a no-brainer that Nato is allowed to attack any Belarusian forces entering Ukraine, but they probably will not.

I am not sure if Russia and Belarus have a mutual defence pact, but in either case, it would still be too risky for NATO to intervene directly. The risk of accidentally hitting Russian forces (or vice-versa) would be too high.

If Belarus invades though this should be a green light to send Ukraine MiGs, S300 missile systems, and other similar equipment NATO has refrained from providing Ukraine so far.

[Cyber_Rebel]

Everything that's old is new again, feels strangely "nostalgic" in that feeling you get from an old World War 1/2 documentary, only playing out in real time:

[Yuli Ban]

Playing with (norse)fire with those designs, though...

[weatheriscool]

[Yuli Ban]

[caltrek]

...

https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/ ... t-00018906

...
- Due to the highly political sanctions the west attached to the dollar and the financial status quo (hurting even neutral countries), there has been strong efforts into establishing a second route for the global finance to transact. The dollar is going down hard with this one.
...

Well, it would seem that Wall Street (and others) have yet to get the message:

https://english.kyodonews.net/news/2022 ... years.html

(Kyodo News)The U.S. dollar climbed into the 120 yen range on Tuesday in Tokyo for the first time since February 2016, after the U.S. Federal Reserve hinted at further raising its key interest rate to tackle soaring inflation, while Tokyo stocks ended at the highest point in over a month.

At 5 p.m., the dollar fetched 120.47-48 yen compared with 119.43-53 yen in New York at 5 p.m. Monday.

The euro was quoted at $1.0983-0984 and 132.32-36 yen against $1.1010-1020 and 131.57-67 yen in New York late Monday afternoon.

The 225-issue Nikkei Stock Average rose 396.68 points, or 1.48 percent, from Friday to 27,224.11, its highest level since Feb. 17. Japanese financial markets were closed Monday for a national holiday.

The broader Topix index of all First Section issues on the Tokyo Stock Exchange was up 24.47 points, or 1.28 percent, at 1,933.74.

caltrek's comment: This is the second time I have had to point out that the dollar is actually strengthening as a result of the crisis.

[Yuli Ban]

THANK FUCKING LORD YOU'RE NOT STILL PRESIDENT
Trump: I would threaten Russia with nuclear submarines if still president

If Donald Trump were still president, he told Fox Business on Monday, he would threaten Russia with nuclear submarines.

Trump lost the 2020 election to Joe Biden, who is therefore dealing with the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

Russia’s status as a nuclear-armed power has shaped the US response, particularly in Biden’s reluctance to take steps, such as a Nato-implemented no-fly zone over Ukraine, that might lead to direct armed confrontation with Russia.

Such caution cuts little ice with Trump.

“I listened to him constantly using the N-word, that’s the N-word, and he’s constantly using it: the nuclear word,” Trump told Fox Business on Monday.

In US usage, the “N-word” typically refers to a racist epithet for Black people.

HOLY SHIT

[Yuli Ban]

JESUS f*ck, THAT WAS HORRIBLE
THE ARTICLE KEPT GETTING WORSE AND WORSE

Kid Rock says Donald Trump sought his advice on North Korea and Islamic State

QUE CHINGADOS

[Yuli Ban]

Threat looms of Russian attack on undersea cables to shut down West’s internet

US President Joe Biden warned this week that Russia is considering attacks on critical infrastructure. One of the scenarios that has been mooted since the start of the war in Ukraine is that Moscow will attack undersea cables in order to cut off the world's internet. But this worst-case scenario is more difficult to implement than it sounds.

"Based on evolving intelligence, Russia might be planning a cyber attack against us,” Biden said at a press conference on March 21. "The magnitude of Russia's cyber capacity is fairly consequential and it's coming."

Biden added that "one of the tools (Russia's) most likely to use, in my view – in our view ­– is cyber attacks. They have a very sophisticated cyber capability”.

This is not the first time since the start of Russia's invasion of Ukraine that the US president has warned about the threat of such attacks. The day after the launch of the Russian invasion on February 24, Washington announced it was "prepared" to ward off any Russian cyber attack.

Elon Musk must be rubbing his hands together.

[raklian]

Threat looms of Russian attack on undersea cables to shut down West’s internet

US President Joe Biden warned this week that Russia is considering attacks on critical infrastructure. One of the scenarios that has been mooted since the start of the war in Ukraine is that Moscow will attack undersea cables in order to cut off the world's internet. But this worst-case scenario is more difficult to implement than it sounds.

"Based on evolving intelligence, Russia might be planning a cyber attack against us,” Biden said at a press conference on March 21. "The magnitude of Russia's cyber capacity is fairly consequential and it's coming."

Biden added that "one of the tools (Russia's) most likely to use, in my view – in our view ­– is cyber attacks. They have a very sophisticated cyber capability”.

This is not the first time since the start of Russia's invasion of Ukraine that the US president has warned about the threat of such attacks. The day after the launch of the Russian invasion on February 24, Washington announced it was "prepared" to ward off any Russian cyber attack.

Elon Musk must be rubbing his hands together.

To shut down any possibility of a state-sponsored cyberattack by Moscow, all Biden needs to do is declare a cyberattack of a certain magnitude (such as attacking essential infrastructure) is tantamount to a declaration of war on the United States and by extension NATO.

[caltrek]

^^^I would go for something a little bit more proportionate to the offense. The goal should be to de-escalate, not intensify the conflict.

What I came here to post:

U.S. Image Soars Across NATO Countries
by Mike Allen
March 23, 2022

https://www.axios.com/america-gallup-po ... 66a57.html

Introduction:

(Axios) With President Biden flying to Brussels Wednesday for a NATO summit, his diplomacy in his first year produced big gains in overseas approval of U.S. leadership, Gallup found.

Why it matters: U.S. ratings in many countries matched or surpassed levels during the Obama years, including in Germany.

What they're saying: "Between 2020 and 2021, U.S. leadership saw double-digit gains ... in 20 out of the 27 NATO members that were surveyed both years," Gallup said.

• Lithuania was the only NATO member where U.S. approval fell (6 points).

I double-checked with Gallup about that outlier 82% U.S. approval in Albania.

• That's in line with previous years: Albania, along with Kosovo, usually leads European countries in approval of the U.S.

caltrek: Nothing like a local crime spree to increase appreciation of the neighborhood cop. To think we owe it all to Putin.

[caltrek]

Ok, here is some bad news to sober us up a little.

Zelensky: 100,000 Trapped in Mariupol with "No food, No water"
by Rebecca Falconer
March 23, 2022

https://www.axios.com/zelensky-100000-m ... fa885.html

Introduction:

(Axios) Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said in a televised address Wednesday that about 100,000 people are enduring "inhumane conditions" in the southeastern port city of Mariupol as they contend with a relentless attack by Russian forces .

What he's saying: Zelensky said Mariupol's citizens were completely blockaded by Russia's military. "No food, no water, no medicine," he said. "Under constant shelling, under constant bombing."

• Despite the bombardment, more than 7,000 Mariupol residents had been rescued from the besieged city in the past 24 hours, Zelensky said.

The big picture: Mariupol is encircled by Russian forces, which have bombarded the strategically important city with airstrikes for days.

• Russia's military needs to take Mariupol in order to create a land corridor between Crimea and the Russian-backed regions of Luhansk and Donetsk in southeastern Ukraine.

[raklian]

^^^I would go for something a little bit more proportionate to the offense. The goal should be to de-escalate, not intensify the conflict.

It's not intensifying the conflict, it's creating a deterrent approaching of that of MAD. It is PROPORTIONATE because we are classifying cyberattacks based on the level of destruction they leave. I did mention something about essential infrastructure such as electric grid, hospitals, etc. A cyberattack on the electric grid is not very different from bombing a transformer or powerplant. A cyberattack of a certain magnitude has the potential to render it unusable for weeks or months. If we frame it this way, certain actors considering cyberattacks will have to factor that into their deliberations.

[weatheriscool]

NATO: Up to 40,000 Russian Troops Killed, Wounded, Taken Prisoner or Missing in Ukraine
By Daniel Michaels
A Russian tank in Kyiv region, Ukraine.PRESS SERVICE OF THE UKRAINIAN G/via REUTERS

NATO says that up to 40,000 Russian troops have been killed, wounded, taken prisoner or are missing in Ukraine, said a senior military official from the alliance.

The North Atlantic Treaty Organization calculates the figure based on information provided by Ukrainian authorities and information obtained from Russia--both officially and unintentionally, the official said.

NATO estimates that between 7,000 and 15,000 Russian soldiers have been killed since the invasion began on Feb. 24. Using statistical averages from past conflicts that for every casualty roughly three soldiers are wounded, NATO analysts reach their total figure.

https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/russia ... HzdeRZvAeD

[Maximus]

If Russia Uses a WMD in Ukraine the Fallout Could Trigger a NATO Response, Key Lawmaker Says

Russian use of a weapon of mass destruction in Ukraine could trigger NATO’s collective defense pact if any fallout drifts into an allied country, the leader of the Senate Armed Services Committee said Wednesday.

During a virtual roundtable with reporters, Senate Armed Services Committee Chairman Jack Reed, D-R.I., was asked if Russian President Vladimir Putin using a chemical, biological or nuclear weapon would prompt the United States to reverse its stance on direct U.S. military involvement in the war in Ukraine.

While Reed doubted President Joe Biden would unilaterally send in U.S. troops, the senator raised the possibility of such an attack in Ukraine being considered an attack on NATO.

https://www.military.com/daily-news/202 ... -says.html

Nato countries set to give Ukraine kit to protect against nuclear and chemical attacks
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/ ... ar-attacks

NATO head tells Russia it cannot win nuclear war
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/na ... 022-03-23/

Seems like these headlines would indicate a Russian nuclear strike is becoming more and more of a real concern.

[raklian]

I think if Putin orders a nuclear or chemical attack, his own circle will turn on him. They have their own interests to look after.