Ukraine War Watch Thread

[raklian]

[Xyls]

A Kremlin paper justifies erasing the Ukrainian identity, as Russia is accused of war crimes

https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/kremlin-e ... -1.6407921

Russia just keeps on digging this hole... West is massively going to expand weapon shipments I predict. I also now think a peaceful resolution in the near term is completely dead.

[raklian]

A Kremlin paper justifies erasing the Ukrainian identity, as Russia is accused of war crimes

https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/kremlin-e ... -1.6407921

Russia just keeps on digging this hole... West is massively going to expand weapon shipments I predict. I also now think a peaceful resolution in the near term is completely dead.

If this drags on without much progress on the Hague prosecution front, it might come to the point USA will have to pull off a secret coup in collusion with the Navalny opposition. Putin dying of cancer will just hasten this process. Not saying it's a certain outcome but one of the possibilities.

[Xyls]

A Kremlin paper justifies erasing the Ukrainian identity, as Russia is accused of war crimes

https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/kremlin-e ... -1.6407921

Russia just keeps on digging this hole... West is massively going to expand weapon shipments I predict. I also now think a peaceful resolution in the near term is completely dead.

If this drags on without much progress on the Hague prosecution front, it might come to the point USA will have to pull off a secret coup in collusion with the Navalny opposition. Putin dying of cancer will just hasten this process. Not saying it's a certain outcome but one of the possibilities.

There is no chance of a US driven coup here... the call will have to come from inside the house. Right now the debate should be whether the West should consider creating a zone of influence in Western Ukraine... although this could lead to a North/South Korea type situation for the country which the West will want to avoid... as will Ukraine... I expect weapons and sanctions are going to intensify...

[raklian]

There is no chance of a US driven coup here...

I don't know about that. If the opposition in Russia reaches out to USA for help, I doubt the plea for help is going to be rejected outright under the right circumstances. It's not too unreasonable to expect Washington willing to nudge in some assistance (probably in the form of financial and intelligence aid) after it has weighted the probability of the opposition successfully pulling it off due to various factors it needs to consider as it has already done with so many other coups in the past. I'll admit this this is probably one of the least plausible outcomes, a low- but certainly not a zero probability event.

I expect weapons and sanctions are going to intensify...

I concur. That is certainly happening already, but the question is what happens if China all of sudden helps Russia out? The sanctions will lose some of their punishing power and Russia keeps slaughtering Ukrainians in the east. We can't rule out this possibility. This is precisely why we can't rule out the slim possibility of a West-driven coup within the Kremlin when the situation grows more desperate. President Biden and European leaders don't want their own people asking why they didn't do anything to help out the Ukrainians, so there's bound to be decisions made to radically alter the calculus of how the West will confront Russia.

[andmar74]

Give Ukraine the weapons they need. Now. They can win this.

[andmar74]

[wjfox]

[weatheriscool]

In Mykolaiv, Russia continues pattern of shelling hospitals
Source: Washington Post

MYKOLAIV, Ukraine — Mothers with newborn babies, a woman with a heart condition and elderly people who couldn’t walk on their own hurriedly evacuated to the basement of a Mykolaiv hospital on Sunday night as the booming thuds of artillery drew closer.

They made it down to shelter just in time. Five minutes after patients and staff had crowded into the cramped underground hallway, a suspected cluster munition landed right next to the building. The blast shattered nearly all of the windows.

It made for an eventful first night for Bohdan, who was born in the makeshift bomb shelter after his mother, Vitalina, and others from the maternity ward made the most harrowing journey to safety, from the hospital’s top floor.

“The Russians are animals; there’s no other explanation,” said Bohdan’s grandmother Vlada. The family declined to provide their surnames out of concerns for their safety.

Read more: https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/in ... ar-AAVQ8pX

[weatheriscool]

China calls for probe into Bucha killings, assigns no blame
Source: ABC News

BEIJING -- China on Wednesday said images of civilian deaths in the Ukrainian town of Bucha are “deeply disturbing” but that no blame should be apportioned until all facts are known.

Emerging evidence of what appeared to be widespread civilian massacres in the wake of Russian withdrawals from the Kyiv areas may complicate Beijing’s attempts to guide public opinion over the conflict, in which China has refused to criticize Moscow.

China supports all initiatives and measures “conducive to alleviating the humanitarian crisis” in the country, and is “ready to continue to work together with the international community to prevent any harm to civilians,” Foreign Ministry spokesperson Zhao Lijian told reporters at a daily briefing.

“The truth and the cause of the incident must be verified," Zhao said. “All parties should exercise restraint and avoid unfounded accusations before a conclusion of the investigation is drawn."

Read more: https://abcnews.go.com/International/wi ... e-83905661

[R8Z]

Brainwashed populations don't realize they are brainwashed as they can't reason outside the moral framework they've been given to be able to infer they have been fooled. Also, every time there's a possibility of thinking outside the allowed lines here comes censorship. It's clear as day on Reddit as well (main subs) where they eat western propaganda like candy and anything that goes against it is quickly censored and not up for debate.

Not that this matters much, its just to legitimize power anyway.

[wjfox]

[weatheriscool]

Military historian Frederick Kagan says he knows of no parallel to a major military power like Russia invading a country at the time of its choosing and failing so utterly.

“It’s stunning.”https://t.co/NhSqIldnvw— The Associated Press (@AP) April 6, 2022

[Xyls]

Military historian Frederick Kagan says he knows of no parallel to a major military power like Russia invading a country at the time of its choosing and failing so utterly.

“It’s stunning.”https://t.co/NhSqIldnvw— The Associated Press (@AP) April 6, 2022

I mean it's probably closest to this:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Winter_War

[wjfox]

[Xyls]

Battle of Sloviansk likely to become decisive battle in the conflict...

This was previously the scene of fighting in 2014 where Ukraine won. The Ukrainians must hold this if they want to stop Russia from taking over south-eastern Ukraine fully... can they do this?

I'm doubtful this time as this won't exactly be an urban warfare situation like Kyiv or Kharkiv... however Russian troops are still being held up in Mariupol and the Ukrainians still hold Kharkiv so the question is whether the Ukrainians can stop the northern offensive on the city from Izium, before Mariupol falls and there is a combined offensive from the south as well. Either by launching attacks from Kharkiv towards Izium or by bleeding the Russians dry. They need equipment to do this, so I'm not sure this is possible.

If Sloviansk falls my guess is Zaporizhzhia will be the last target. Taking this will give Russia the control of the 4 southern oblasts of the country which will likely be satisfactory for Putin... Again Zaporizhzhia before May 9th? This is another urban warfare situation and would be by far the largest city the Russians would have to show they can take control over... which based on their performance at Kharkiv and Kyiv is far from certain they can do... unless they want to try to Mariupol this city... which I am doubtful they will be able to replicate as this city is in a FAR more defensible position...

https://europebetweeneastandwest.wordpr ... sloviansk/
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgr ... nt-april-6

[raklian]

The WWII-era lend-lease program has been revived.

[Yuli Ban]

[Yuli Ban]

[Yuli Ban]